ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[CyclonicFury]

Some -2C anomalies are showing up in the Pacific subsurface per TAO/TRITON data. This is not something you typically see prior to an oncoming El Niño event in the spring - this subsurface pattern looks much more like one you would see for a mature event.

However, this could be an exception. Although the trade burst continues for the time being, the WWB is already beginning in the Indian Ocean and should reach the WPAC in early-mid May. The WWB, if it verifies, should push the thermocline back down, allowing a new downwelling KW to develop and possibly giving this Niño a "second wind." If the WWB does not verify, El Niño will have a hard time strengthening.

[Hurricaneman]

The ENSO subsurface is telling me that maybe the El Niño peaked in late February early March and it’s now in decline, wouldn’t be surprised if El Niño fails by June

[NotSparta]

The ENSO subsurface is telling me that maybe the El Niño peaked in late February early March and it’s now in decline, wouldn’t be surprised if El Niño fails by June

Possible. The subsfc does look unhealthy.



However, the Niño has one last WWB up its sleeve. An MJO pulse currently in the Indian Ocean, causing a EWB in the Niño regions. It is slated to move eastward, slowly moving anomalous westerlies towards the Pacific. Soon, it will likely cause a WWB. This one is especially important, as it could finally give us answers to this yr's ENSO. It could either finally give the Niño a boost, which would allow it to carry on into the winter, or if it acts similarly to the one in March, it will likely decay slowly, as seasonal forcing around this time of year is rather weak.

[AnnularCane]

However, the Niño has one last WWB up its sleeve. An MJO pulse currently in the Indian Ocean, causing a EWB in the Niño regions. It is slated to move eastward, slowly moving anomalous westerlies towards the Pacific. Soon, it will likely cause a WWB. This one is especially important, as it could finally give us answers to this yr's ENSO. It could either finally give the Niño a boost, which would allow it to carry on into the winter, or if it acts similarly to the one in March, it will likely decay slowly, as seasonal forcing around this time of year is rather weak.

When do you think we will know which one of these will be the case?

[NotSparta]

However, the Niño has one last WWB up its sleeve. An MJO pulse currently in the Indian Ocean, causing a EWB in the Niño regions. It is slated to move eastward, slowly moving anomalous westerlies towards the Pacific. Soon, it will likely cause a WWB. This one is especially important, as it could finally give us answers to this yr's ENSO. It could either finally give the Niño a boost, which would allow it to carry on into the winter, or if it acts similarly to the one in March, it will likely decay slowly, as seasonal forcing around this time of year is rather weak.

When do you think we will know which one of these will be the case?

Probably between May 5-15. By then, we'll know where & how strong the WWB is, and its effects on ENSO. If it's like the one in February, then I'd expect for it to continue. If it's similar to the one in March, a transition to neutral looks more likely

[Kingarabian]

Some -2C anomalies are showing up in the Pacific subsurface per TAO/TRITON data. This is not something you typically see prior to an oncoming El Niño event in the spring - this subsurface pattern looks much more like one you would see for a mature event.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/SMy2UmE.gif[url]
However, this could be an exception. Although the trade burst continues for the time being, the WWB is already beginning in the Indian Ocean and should reach the WPAC in early-mid May. The WWB, if it verifies, should push the thermocline back down, allowing a new downwelling KW to develop and possibly giving this Niño a "second wind." If the WWB does not verify, El Niño will have a hard time strengthening.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/Ph3eDBtl.jpg[url]

Those cool anomalies have been like that for quite a while. Just fluctuating betwwen -0.5C and -1.5C. So i'm not sure if an upwelling Kelvin wave has been triggered. Looking at the latest subsurface snapshot, the subsurface is composed of cold anomalies deep in the WPAC, neutral and warm anomalies in the CPAC/EPAC. So it looks wide open to me and the ENSO scale can tilt both ways.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty strong and large WWB on the Euro. Looks to be much stronger than the GFS. Probably because there continues to be differences between the models in their handling of the MJO.

Euro shows much less progression over the MC and directly re-emerges the MJO over the CPAC/EPAC:


CFS is a decent blend of the GFS and Euro:


GFS:


So there's a good chance we'll see El Nino rejuvenated if we get decent amplification in either phases 7 or 8, and since models are showing less progression in what I call "El Nino hurting MC phases".

[stormlover2013]

Think y’all are still reaching..looking neutral to me by August

[Kingarabian]

Think y’all are still reaching..looking neutral to me by August

Nothing's reaching because the atmosphere is still in El Nino and we'll need to see more EWB's for that to change. Clearer picture in May.

[NotSparta]

Some -2C anomalies are showing up in the Pacific subsurface per TAO/TRITON data. This is not something you typically see prior to an oncoming El Niño event in the spring - this subsurface pattern looks much more like one you would see for a mature event.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/SMy2UmE.gif[url]
However, this could be an exception. Although the trade burst continues for the time being, the WWB is already beginning in the Indian Ocean and should reach the WPAC in early-mid May. The WWB, if it verifies, should push the thermocline back down, allowing a new downwelling KW to develop and possibly giving this Niño a "second wind." If the WWB does not verify, El Niño will have a hard time strengthening.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/Ph3eDBtl.jpg[url]

Those cool anomalies have been like that for quite a while. Just fluctuating betwwen -0.5C and -1.5C. So i'm not sure if an upwelling Kelvin wave has been triggered. Looking at the latest subsurface snapshot, the subsurface is composed of cold anomalies deep in the WPAC, neutral and warm anomalies in the CPAC/EPAC. So it looks wide open to me and the ENSO scale can tilt both ways.

There's definitely an upwelling KW being triggered, the sign is quite clear on here:



Other than that, I agree.

[Kingarabian]

Some -2C anomalies are showing up in the Pacific subsurface per TAO/TRITON data. This is not something you typically see prior to an oncoming El Niño event in the spring - this subsurface pattern looks much more like one you would see for a mature event.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/SMy2UmE.gif[url]
However, this could be an exception. Although the trade burst continues for the time being, the WWB is already beginning in the Indian Ocean and should reach the WPAC in early-mid May. The WWB, if it verifies, should push the thermocline back down, allowing a new downwelling KW to develop and possibly giving this Niño a "second wind." If the WWB does not verify, El Niño will have a hard time strengthening.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/Ph3eDBtl.jpg[url]

Those cool anomalies have been like that for quite a while. Just fluctuating betwwen -0.5C and -1.5C. So i'm not sure if an upwelling Kelvin wave has been triggered. Looking at the latest subsurface snapshot, the subsurface is composed of cold anomalies deep in the WPAC, neutral and warm anomalies in the CPAC/EPAC. So it looks wide open to me and the ENSO scale can tilt both ways.

There's definitely an upwelling KW being triggered, the sign is quite clear on here:

[url]https://i.imgur.com/h81xeTX.gif[url]

Other than that, I agree.

Till we see those anomalies get past the CPAC I'll believe it, otherwise in that region it's been like that since February.

[NotSparta]

Those cool anomalies have been like that for quite a while. Just fluctuating betwwen -0.5C and -1.5C. So i'm not sure if an upwelling Kelvin wave has been triggered. Looking at the latest subsurface snapshot, the subsurface is composed of cold anomalies deep in the WPAC, neutral and warm anomalies in the CPAC/EPAC. So it looks wide open to me and the ENSO scale can tilt both ways.

There's definitely an upwelling KW being triggered, the sign is quite clear on here:

[url]https://i.imgur.com/h81xeTX.gif[url]

Other than that, I agree.

Till we see those anomalies get past the CPAC I'll believe it, otherwise in that region it's been like that since February.

That's the signature of one though, at least one beginning. It doesn't have to cause cooler than avg water, just less warm than the base state. One occurred in DJ 2018/19, and most anomalies were warmer, just less so. The base state is cooler now so actual negative anomalies have gotten to 150°W

[Kingarabian]

There's definitely an upwelling KW being triggered, the sign is quite clear on here:

[url]https://i.imgur.com/h81xeTX.gif[url]

Other than that, I agree.

Till we see those anomalies get past the CPAC I'll believe it, otherwise in that region it's been like that since February.

That's the signature of one though, at least one beginning. It doesn't have to cause cooler than avg water, just less warm than the base state. One occurred in DJ 2018/19, and most anomalies were warmer, just less so. The base state is cooler now so actual negative anomalies have gotten to 150°W

I want to see one that can actually flip the ocean part of "ENSO" towards cool neutral. I think that will help the atmosphere respond and become more conducive for a cool neutral or La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1122176077017886721

[NotSparta]

Till we see those anomalies get past the CPAC I'll believe it, otherwise in that region it's been like that since February.

That's the signature of one though, at least one beginning. It doesn't have to cause cooler than avg water, just less warm than the base state. One occurred in DJ 2018/19, and most anomalies were warmer, just less so. The base state is cooler now so actual negative anomalies have gotten to 150°W

I want to see one that can actually flip the ocean part of "ENSO" towards cool neutral. I think that will help the atmosphere respond and become more conducive for a cool neutral or La Nina.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, the current one is a little too weak

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1122464329645924352

[tolakram]

Think y’all are still reaching..looking neutral to me by August

No one is reaching. There is no accurate way to forecast what nino will be come August. Mid May seems to be the date around which future of the nino state becomes more apparent, until then it's all guesses. In my opinion.

[NotSparta]

Think y’all are still reaching..looking neutral to me by August

No one is reaching. There is no accurate way to forecast what nino will be come August. Mid May seems to be the date around which future of the nino state becomes more apparent, until then it's all guesses. In my opinion.

And, it looks like by mid May things will indeed be come clearer.

[stormlover2013]

I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

[NotSparta]

I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

An El Niño call is still not a bad call, we'll see how things are as the WWB happens.


However, confidence is much lower now