ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11321 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:26 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

I think 2017 @ the subsurface is a closer analog:
https://i.imgur.com/4nGZgUW.png

How long it takes ENSO to switch to cool-neutral before the summer is key for La Nina formation by ASO.

Now the short term debate is what happens if ONI hits 5 straight monthlies of +0.5C? Because It's looking that the final week of March will have Nino 3.4 above +0.5C and there's a strong chance that JFM comes in @ +0.5C... which would make it 4 straight monthlies. Some modeling shows there's enough OHC for Nino 3.4 to be above +0.5C in April. Interesting to see what the CPC does here.


No 2017 please. :eek:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11322 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:32 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11323 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:Tonight's 00z Euro has the SOI negative for the next 10 days and this means March will likely have a negative SOI.

Euro's SOI forecasts have been verifying. March SOI will more than likely close between -5/-7 ish. Euro has the daily's for the 29th, 30th, and 31st of March near -5 each.

Tonight's 00z Euro run shows the SOI negative for the next 10 days with higher than normal pressure over Darwin and near normal pressure over Tahiti.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11324 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:17 pm

While there will be no coherent MJO signal over the WPAC, there appears to be a passing active CCKW and is probably aiding the untimely westerly component of the 850mb winds building over the Pacific on some of the models, in through the next 10 days(Euro/CMC much stronger compared to the GFS). So if this verifies it may delay La Nina development.
Image

CCKW suppressed /convectively active phases can effect ENSO. A pro longed suppressed CCKW moving across the equitorial Pacific during spring 2018 delayed the El Nino onset that year by promoting widespread trades across the Pacific which resulted in warm neutral during ASO.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11325 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:34 am

Kingarabian wrote:While there will be no coherent MJO signal over the WPAC, there appears to be a passing active CCKW and is probably aiding the untimely westerly component of the 850mb winds building over the Pacific on some of the models, in through the next 10 days(Euro/CMC much stronger compared to the GFS). So if this verifies it may delay La Nina development.
https://i.imgur.com/Gy3BuBO.png

CCKW suppressed /convectively active phases can effect ENSO. A pro longed suppressed CCKW moving across the equitorial Pacific during spring 2018 delayed the El Nino onset that year by promoting widespread trades across the Pacific which resulted in warm neutral during ASO.
https://i.imgur.com/5dBXhg4.png

If this transpires, then a hyperactive Atlantic season becomes much less probable than a slightly-above-average one. Delayed Niñas are typically weaker.

The ECMWF has consistently shown a weaker, later Niña than the CFSv2, after correcting its warm bias. So now the CFSv2 may trend warmer. SPB applies.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11326 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:58 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11327 Postby NotSparta » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:32 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:While there will be no coherent MJO signal over the WPAC, there appears to be a passing active CCKW and is probably aiding the untimely westerly component of the 850mb winds building over the Pacific on some of the models, in through the next 10 days(Euro/CMC much stronger compared to the GFS). So if this verifies it may delay La Nina development.
https://i.imgur.com/Gy3BuBO.png

CCKW suppressed /convectively active phases can effect ENSO. A pro longed suppressed CCKW moving across the equitorial Pacific during spring 2018 delayed the El Nino onset that year by promoting widespread trades across the Pacific which resulted in warm neutral during ASO.
https://i.imgur.com/5dBXhg4.png

If this transpires, then a hyperactive Atlantic season becomes much less probable than a slightly-above-average one. Delayed Niñas are typically weaker.

The ECMWF has consistently shown a weaker, later Niña than the CFSv2, after correcting its warm bias. So now the CFSv2 may trend warmer. SPB applies.


You don't need La Niña, just -ENSO. 2017 and 2005, for two examples, both occurred with cool neutral ENSO during ASO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11328 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:59 am

NotSparta wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:While there will be no coherent MJO signal over the WPAC, there appears to be a passing active CCKW and is probably aiding the untimely westerly component of the 850mb winds building over the Pacific on some of the models, in through the next 10 days(Euro/CMC much stronger compared to the GFS). So if this verifies it may delay La Nina development.
https://i.imgur.com/Gy3BuBO.png

CCKW suppressed /convectively active phases can effect ENSO. A pro longed suppressed CCKW moving across the equitorial Pacific during spring 2018 delayed the El Nino onset that year by promoting widespread trades across the Pacific which resulted in warm neutral during ASO.
https://i.imgur.com/5dBXhg4.png

If this transpires, then a hyperactive Atlantic season becomes much less probable than a slightly-above-average one. Delayed Niñas are typically weaker.

The ECMWF has consistently shown a weaker, later Niña than the CFSv2, after correcting its warm bias. So now the CFSv2 may trend warmer. SPB applies.


You don't need La Niña, just -ENSO. 2017 and 2005, for two examples, both occurred with cool neutral ENSO during ASO

The mean MEI in ASO of the top five years for ACE (since 1950) was -0.3678, or cool neutral ENSO. However, seven of the top ten years featured La Niña by ASO:

Indeed. This would make a well-above-average Atlantic season quite improbable, as opposed to a near-to-slightly-above-average year, which is far more probable and realistic. Based on mean MEI data for ASO, seven of the top ten years for ACE (since 1950) featured La Niña for ASO (bolded). Clearly, so long as a +AMO in place, the stronger La Niña gets, the more intense a season peaks.

1) 2005: -0.081
2) 1995: -0.731
3) 2004: +0.3075
4) 2017: -0.4965
5) 1950: -0.838
6) 1961: -0.5275
7) 1998: -0.841
8) 1999: -1.3805
9) 1969: +0.902
10) 1996: -0.536

Source
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11329 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:33 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:While there will be no coherent MJO signal over the WPAC, there appears to be a passing active CCKW and is probably aiding the untimely westerly component of the 850mb winds building over the Pacific on some of the models, in through the next 10 days(Euro/CMC much stronger compared to the GFS). So if this verifies it may delay La Nina development.
https://i.imgur.com/Gy3BuBO.png

CCKW suppressed /convectively active phases can effect ENSO. A pro longed suppressed CCKW moving across the equitorial Pacific during spring 2018 delayed the El Nino onset that year by promoting widespread trades across the Pacific which resulted in warm neutral during ASO.
https://i.imgur.com/5dBXhg4.png

If this transpires, then a hyperactive Atlantic season becomes much less probable than a slightly-above-average one. Delayed Niñas are typically weaker.

The ECMWF has consistently shown a weaker, later Niña than the CFSv2, after correcting its warm bias. So now the CFSv2 may trend warmer. SPB applies.


You don't need La Niña, just -ENSO. 2017 and 2005, for two examples, both occurred with cool neutral ENSO during ASO

La Nina doesn't hurt but -ENSO coupled with favorable Atlantic SST configurations have proven to be recipes for historic Atlantic hurricane seasons.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11330 Postby StruThiO » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:40 am

3/30 update

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11331 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:06 pm

StruThiO wrote:3/30 update

[url]https://i.imgur.com/NmfS5gp.png[url]


With this update it will actually be a close call whether JFM will come in @ +0.5C. Based on the CPC's numbers for Nino 3.4 in the past 12 weeks, the average for JFM is +0.46. The CPC is pretty dynamic with the ONI so if they have enough info they could bump it up or bump it further down. We'll see.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11332 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:26 pm

The latest BOM Enso update made a big shift toward La Nina around Aug/Sept for Nino 3.4. It is now in closer agreement with CFSv2

Image


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11333 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:26 am

Above-average easterlies have been and appear to be fairly constant around 120°W through the next seven days, retrograding closer to the DL over time. The key is that the easterlies have been sustained thus far and seem destined to continue through the upcoming week. The weak MJO signal, while shifting toward West Africa (the cutoff between Phases 8/1) over time, certainly isn’t helping WWBs expand east of the DL through this period. (Incidentally, during the same timeframe, the NAO index looks to be quite negative, which, along with the position and amplitude of the MJO, should aid not just continued gradual cooling of NINO 3/3.4, but also additional warming of the MDR.)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11334 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:25 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Above-average easterlies have been and appear to be fairly constant around 120°W through the next seven days, retrograding closer to the DL over time. The key is that the easterlies have been sustained thus far and seem destined to continue through the upcoming week. The weak MJO signal, while shifting toward West Africa (the cutoff between Phases 8/1) over time, certainly isn’t helping WWBs expand east of the DL through this period. (Incidentally, during the same timeframe, the NAO index looks to be quite negative, which, along with the position and amplitude of the MJO, should aid not just continued gradual cooling of NINO 3/3.4, but also additional warming of the MDR.)


In most cases, decent MJO amplitude over phase 8 results in westerly anomalies or very weak trades in the EPAC (typically between 140W-100W). Models are showing weakened trades across the EPAC starting around April 10. In the next 5-7 days there will be a 10Ms WWB just west of the dateline. The atmosphere still has ways to go in switching to La Nina, despite the upwelling @ the subsurface. That's evident through the disruption of enhanced trades and a negative SOI.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11335 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Above-average easterlies have been and appear to be fairly constant around 120°W through the next seven days, retrograding closer to the DL over time. The key is that the easterlies have been sustained thus far and seem destined to continue through the upcoming week. The weak MJO signal, while shifting toward West Africa (the cutoff between Phases 8/1) over time, certainly isn’t helping WWBs expand east of the DL through this period. (Incidentally, during the same timeframe, the NAO index looks to be quite negative, which, along with the position and amplitude of the MJO, should aid not just continued gradual cooling of NINO 3/3.4, but also additional warming of the MDR.)


In most cases, decent MJO amplitude over phase 8 results in westerly anomalies or very weak trades in the EPAC (typically between 140W-100W). Models are showing weakened trades across the EPAC starting around April 10. In the next 5-7 days there will be a 10Ms WWB just west of the dateline. The atmosphere still has ways to go in switching to La Nina, despite the upwelling @ the subsurface. That's evident through the disruption of enhanced trades and a negative SOI.

[ii.imgur.com/3A0lO80.png[/img]


In the Spring of 2017, the Enso models were showing slow warming to El Nino levels but the atmosphere was Nina like and that ultimately caused El Nino to fail. Do you think the opposite can happen this year where the models are showing Nina but the atmosphere is more Nino?


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11336 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:10 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Above-average easterlies have been and appear to be fairly constant around 120°W through the next seven days, retrograding closer to the DL over time. The key is that the easterlies have been sustained thus far and seem destined to continue through the upcoming week. The weak MJO signal, while shifting toward West Africa (the cutoff between Phases 8/1) over time, certainly isn’t helping WWBs expand east of the DL through this period. (Incidentally, during the same timeframe, the NAO index looks to be quite negative, which, along with the position and amplitude of the MJO, should aid not just continued gradual cooling of NINO 3/3.4, but also additional warming of the MDR.)


In most cases, decent MJO amplitude over phase 8 results in westerly anomalies or very weak trades in the EPAC (typically between 140W-100W). Models are showing weakened trades across the EPAC starting around April 10. In the next 5-7 days there will be a 10Ms WWB just west of the dateline. The atmosphere still has ways to go in switching to La Nina, despite the upwelling @ the subsurface. That's evident through the disruption of enhanced trades and a negative SOI.

[ii.imgur.com/3A0lO80.png[/url]


In the Spring of 2017, the Enso models were showing slow warming to El Nino levels but the atmosphere was Nina like and that ultimately caused El Nino to fail. Do you think the opposite can happen this year where the models are showing Nina but the atmosphere is more Nino?


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2017 had to be one of the biggest forecasting failures for climate models. I'm not sure how they missed a combination of strong and persistent trades and a lack of downwelling Kelvin waves.

Late winter and throughout spring 2017, strong trades dominated the entire Pacific. A moderate WWB between January and February 2017 triggered a downwelling Kelvin wave that kept the surface sea temperatures near El Nino threshold until June. But there wasnt much beneath the surface, especially as we got closer to June.

So yeah 2017 had a lot going for it from the atmosphere which aided in the transition into cool neutral and then into a La Nina. So far 2020 has some similarities in that the atmosphere is still leaning a certain way. However during March, there were signs that the atmosphere could be moving towards a cooler ENSO. But the forecast of below average trades or even westerly winds across the Pacific during April by most models can throw a wrench into things.

IMO (note this is not supported by the CPC), It looks like a weak El Nino is/was present when looking at 850mb wind activity since late fall, and the persistent OHC at the subsurface. If that's reality, then a transition into cool neutral and into La Nina make a lot more sense going into ASO. If the reality is that were in warm neutral, then the possibilities remain wide open for ASO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11337 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:14 pm

Now that CSU released their April forecast calling for an active Atlantic season,all eyes will turn to this large ENSO thread to see the latest.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11338 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:55 pm

Looking ahead 10-16 days: models are now coming into agreement for a stronger MJO amplitude as it passes the EPAC, which means a WWB in the heart of the EPAC basin is possible. True WWB's over the EPAC are actually pretty rare compared to the events that occur over or near the dateline. So there could be some implications.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11339 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:01 am

Kingarabian wrote:Looking ahead 10-16 days: models are now coming into agreement for a stronger MJO amplitude as it passes the EPAC, which means a WWB in the heart of the EPAC basin is possible. True WWB's over the EPAC are actually pretty rare compared to the events that occur over or near the dateline. So there could be some implications.

On 3 March, the CFSv2 mean forecast NINO 3.4 to be around 0.3°C by 1 April, but the actual weeklies have verified closer to 0.5°C. So the CFSv2 seems to have a cool bias of ±0.2°C. The upcoming MJO-modulated WWB may make the difference between cool neutral ENSO and weak Niña conditions by ASO. As I have posted previously, (at least weak) La Niña, especially if stronger, tends to produce far greater frequencies of high-ACE Atlantic seasons than cool neutral ENSO by ASO, all other factors being equal. So if we stay in cool neutral or higher ENSO, we could see lower ACE than the most bullish forecasts and estimates currently call for. This is one strong reason to refrain from calling for a hyperactive Atlantic season, though a slightly-above-average one is quite reasonable, unless the AMO becomes much more strongly positive over the next few months.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11340 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:3/30 update

[url]https://i.imgur.com/NmfS5gp.png[url]


With this update it will actually be a close call whether JFM will come in @ +0.5C. Based on the CPC's numbers for Nino 3.4 in the past 12 weeks, the average for JFM is +0.46. The CPC is pretty dynamic with the ONI so if they have enough info they could bump it up or bump it further down. We'll see.


JFM came in @ +0.5C, so that means the CPC bumped the 3 month average higher. Per ONI, the last time we saw 4 straight tri-monthlies of +0.5C or higher and did not have an El Nino was in 1993.
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