ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9221 Postby NotSparta » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:31 am

cycloneye wrote:I dont know if is here in PR only but can't open the CPC site.


Yeah having trouble too
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9222 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:57 am

CPC site is now working. The Weekly update of 4/23/18 update has Niño 3.4 warming up to -0.2C.It was at -0.4C last week.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC 4/23/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / It was at -0.4C on last Mondays update

#9223 Postby Ntxw » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:29 am

2009 around this time was -0.2C while last year was +0.5. Diverging outcomes.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 4/23/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C

#9224 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:10 pm

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/988405423299612672




Models hinting at another WPAC TC forming.

Likely as a result of another WWB event forming west of the dateline, similar to what we saw in March with Super Typhoon Jelawat.

Image

Around Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 there's also some increased signs of non existent trades.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 4/23/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.2C / It was at -0.4C on last Mondays update

#9225 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:2009 around this time was -0.2C while last year was +0.5. Diverging outcomes.


Also, both 2004 and 2005 were not strong ENSO years. 2004 was warm and 2005 only went slightly cool towards the end of the hurricane season. My guess is people are in for ENSO Surprise again this year. Hurricane season may be quite active. Just not seeing a raging El Niño at this point. Beware La Nada!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9226 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:17 am

@BenNollWeather

ENSO developments:

(1) Anomalous westerlies later this week into early May should help to push warmer waters eastward toward the dateline.

(2) Another period of anomalous winds in a week, farther east in the basin, will likely continue to erode the cool pool.


Image

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/988745571430088704


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9227 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:20 pm

He has been on the wait and see approach but still can't deny the changes that have taken place. The surface trades in the east have done little to stop the thermocline. Any relaxation of trades going forward will allow warmth to increase at a faster clip

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/988810286764261376


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9228 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:32 pm

Also EQ Pacific heat anoms is greater at this time compared to 2009 during the same period

Image

Image

The foundation is there
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9229 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:He has been on the wait and see approach but still can't deny the changes that have taken place. The surface trades in the east have done little to stop the thermocline. Any relaxation of trades going forward will allow warmth to increase at a faster clip

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/988810286764261376[tweet]


He probably has no choice but to consider it. The GFS and the Euro have done a pretty bad job in handling and predicting the 850mb winds so far. Just look at this GFS forecast graphic and compare it with its original forecasts in the previous posts/pages. Has not been verifying well.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9230 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:@BenNollWeather

ENSO developments:

(1) Anomalous westerlies later this week into early May should help to push warmer waters eastward toward the dateline.

(2) Another period of anomalous winds in a week, farther east in the basin, will likely continue to erode the cool pool.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/FNEWaLu.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/988745571430088704[tweet]


The graphic may not show it, but that strong up coming WWB will more than likely significantly weaken the trades residing in the central pacific even further. We could see those blues turn into yellow or red in the next couple of runs by the Euro and the GFS.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9231 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:@BenNollWeather

ENSO developments:

(1) Anomalous westerlies later this week into early May should help to push warmer waters eastward toward the dateline.

(2) Another period of anomalous winds in a week, farther east in the basin, will likely continue to erode the cool pool.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/FNEWaLu.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/988745571430088704[tweet]


The graphic may not show it, but that strong up coming WWB will more than likely significantly weaken the trades residing in the central pacific even further. We could see those blues turn into yellow or red in the next couple of runs by the Euro and the GFS.


It may be a significant WWB. The prior westerlies was variable and isolated but this upcoming one you can follow from left to right mid April 0-60E moving east as time moves along the Pacific. It strengthens in the same areas favored so far in 2018 where the MJO has been enhanced most.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9232 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:@BenNollWeather

ENSO developments:

(1) Anomalous westerlies later this week into early May should help to push warmer waters eastward toward the dateline.

(2) Another period of anomalous winds in a week, farther east in the basin, will likely continue to erode the cool pool.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/FNEWaLu.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/988745571430088704[tweet]


The graphic may not show it, but that strong up coming WWB will more than likely significantly weaken the trades residing in the central pacific even further. We could see those blues turn into yellow or red in the next couple of runs by the Euro and the GFS.


It may be a significant WWB. The prior westerlies was variable and isolated but this upcoming one you can follow from left to right mid April 0-60E moving east as time moves along the Pacific. It strengthens in the same areas favored so far in 2018 where the MJO has been enhanced most.


Also another case for that WWB to be significant, is that the pressure pattern will be favorable since the SOI would be in negative territory if we go by the Euro pressure forecasts for Tahiti and Darwin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9233 Postby StruThiO » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:05 pm

Another Webb tweet. This is very interesting how perfectly the config. lines up

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988880924451450880


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9234 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:51 pm

StruThiO wrote:Another Webb tweet. This is very interesting how perfectly the config. lines up

[tweet]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988880924451450880[tweet]


Here's one more:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988923919007707137


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9235 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:32 pm

And yes,one more Webb Twitter message.

webberweather
Just another friendly reminder you don't need El Nino or even warm neutral ENSO to get above normal wind shear in the Atlantic. -ENSO years like 1985 w/ a +PMM and active NE Pac are sometimes more than enough. It also helps when the Atlantic offers no resistance w/ a cool MDR


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988934847992352773


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9236 Postby Pressure » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:54 pm

Just my thoughts at the moment: Id say
Cool neutral Apr-May
Neutral June-August
Warm Neutral Sep+
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9237 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:22 am

@MJVentrice
Atmosphere is still coupled to La Nina today.. I suspect we could attribute the still enhanced West Pacific tropical forcing to the reduced severe tstorm activity across the states to date.


Image

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/989159925506101248


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9238 Postby NotSparta » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:58 am

:uarrow:

And this is why I'm thinking neutral until late 2018. There are so many mixed signals that things will probably moderate to neutral, though headed towards El Nino late this year, imo.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9239 Postby LarryWx » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:11 am

Ntxw wrote:Also EQ Pacific heat anoms is greater at this time compared to 2009 during the same period

Image

Image

The foundation is there


Yes, indeed, it is. Thanks for posting this. A very rough guideline I often use to give some idea of the Niño 3.4 ONI (trimonthly) anomaly potential down the road is to look at the latest 180-100 degrees eq. upper ocean heat (OHC) anomaly, like you showed. History has shown a fairly decent correlation though far from perfect. With it being at +0.9C, getting close to a +0.9C ONI in Niño 3.4 within a few months, indicative of a weak El Niño, wouldn't at all surprise me. Note that the OHC peaked at nearly +1.6 in early November of 2009. The ONI later peaked at +1.6. It usually doesn't work as well as that but it often gives a good guideline, regardless. Also, I'm noting that the OHC appears to still be increasing. If that continues and it gets to, say, something like +1.2+, I might then feel comfortable roughly projecting an even warmer ONI potential into the moderate El Niño range for later this year.
Another thing to note is how much warmer the current +0.9 OHC anomaly is vs one year ago, when it was only +0.1 and peaked at only +0.4. That turned out to be El Niño fake out with a peak ONI of only +0.4, We're already way above that +0.4 peak.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9240 Postby Icybubba » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:28 am

It's possible we could see an El Nino by October or November, however I find it extremely unlikely to have one develop in time to hinder the season
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