ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

I agree Larry that the upper EQ OHC Pacific is a good 'tea leaves' indicator for the ENSO state in its entirety. Not only for ONI correlations but even perhaps start and end points.

[LarryWx]

It's possible we could see an El Nino by October or November, however I find it extremely unlikely to have one develop in time to hinder the season

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

[NotSparta]

It's possible we could see an El Nino by October or November, however I find it extremely unlikely to have one develop in time to hinder the season

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

Moderate El Niño? imo, there's not enough time for that in 2018 unless the atmosphere suddenly gets very El Niño coupled.

[Ntxw]

It's possible we could see an El Nino by October or November, however I find it extremely unlikely to have one develop in time to hinder the season

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

Moderate El Niño? imo, there's not enough time for that in 2018 unless the atmosphere suddenly gets very El Niño coupled.

There is still plenty of time. 2009 did not even see 0.5C or more until Mid June. 1982 most were callling for weak El Nino through summer until things rapidly changed. We have this impression that we need warm readings throughout spring for a good event is not true. Not every event is steady rise like 2015. Peak is way in Nov-Feb. Only a handful of Ninos even qualify as such by hurricane/typhoon seasons which is what most folks here seem to be using as a bar rather than looking at ENSO in its entirety.

[stormlover2013]

my meteorologist buddy said if a el nino happen will be weak but won't be till maybe OCT.

[TheStormExpert]

Sounds like we may be in for another 2014. Where the El Niño never materialized YET, but you had basically full blown El Niño-like conditions and effects from what you’d see during one across the Pacific and Atlantic. If that’s the case I’d expect experts to trend downwards with their predictions which at this point is the only way I see things trending if they’re to trend some way.

[LarryWx]

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

Moderate El Niño? imo, there's not enough time for that in 2018 unless the atmosphere suddenly gets very El Niño coupled.

There is still plenty of time. 2009 did not even see 0.5C or more until Mid June. 1982 most were callling for weak El Nino through summer until things rapidly changed. We have this impression that we need warm readings throughout spring for a good event is not true. Not every event is steady rise like 2015. Peak is way in Nov-Feb. Only a handful of Ninos even qualify as such by hurricane/typhoon seasons which is what most folks here seem to be using as a bar rather than looking at ENSO in its entirety.

I agree there'e plenty of time.
Looking back to 1950 on the ONI table, about 80% of new El Ninos start by no later than the ASO trimonth.
Even if it doesn't start by then (assuming we get one):
- 2014, which was just a weak one which didn't start til OND, had only 8 NS.
- 1979 was also only a weak one and it didn't start til SON. It had only 8 NS (even though it was a bad season).
- 1968 was a moderate one that started SON and it had only 7 NS & 4 Hs that were all only cat 1.
- The idea is that the atmospheric conditions PRECEDING the ONI being +0.5+ are often already unfavorable for an active season. The SOI will often first go solidly negative well in advance of when we first reach El Nino conditions in Nino 3.4 per SST anomalies. TheStormExpert basically said this about 2014 just above.

[Icybubba]

It's possible we could see an El Nino by October or November, however I find it extremely unlikely to have one develop in time to hinder the season

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

Moderate or Strong El Nino? Dude we're still in Cold-Neutral

[LarryWx]

It's possible we could see an El Nino by October or November, however I find it extremely unlikely to have one develop in time to hinder the season

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

Moderate or Strong El Nino? Dude we're still in Cold-Neutral

I realize that but don't be fooled as it can still happen per history, especially with the OHC already up to +0.9:
- 2009: still cold neutral MAM and went to strong Nino
- 1986: still cold neutral even later, AMJ, and went to moderate Nino
- 1968: still cold neutral MAM and went to moderate Nino

[Icybubba]

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

Moderate or Strong El Nino? Dude we're still in Cold-Neutral

I realize that but don't be fooled as it can still happen per history, especially with the OHC already up to +0.9:
- 2009: still cold neutral MAM and went to strong Nino
- 1986: still cold neutral even later, AMJ, and went to moderate Nino
- 1968: still cold neutral MAM and went to moderate Nino

The cold neutral was hurting bad at this time in 2009 comparing it to now, we're much deeper into col-neutral

[Ntxw]

The two actually look quite similar, as is the weekly readings that prove. In fact 2009 was even more -PDO and weaker PMM. So saying it is more cold neutral is incorrect

[cycloneye]

@ToddKimberlain
Downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave from significant MJO event in March has paved the way for El Niño this summer. But the ocean is waiting for additional atmospheric forcing to push it fully in that direction.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/989200825770790912

[Kingarabian]

Moderate or Strong El Nino? Dude we're still in Cold-Neutral

I realize that but don't be fooled as it can still happen per history, especially with the OHC already up to +0.9:
- 2009: still cold neutral MAM and went to strong Nino
- 1986: still cold neutral even later, AMJ, and went to moderate Nino
- 1968: still cold neutral MAM and went to moderate Nino

The cold neutral was hurting bad at this time in 2009 [img]http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomw.4.23.2009.gif[img] comparing it to now, we're much deeper into col-neutral [img]http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomw.4.23.2018.gif[img]

It's not too far off from 2009.

And 2017 this time of the year was deep into warm neutral and we ended up with a La Nina:
https://i.imgur.com/cF3ybj7.gif

There's a specific SST anomaly configuration that the ocean has to have to allow for an El Nino or a La Nina, and so for the global ocean SST anomalies have a setup that favors El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

It's possible we could see an El Nino by October or November, however I find it extremely unlikely to have one develop in time to hinder the season

I totally disagree with this, especially if it eventually ends up getting to a moderate El Niño peak. History of oncoming El Niño seasons, especially moderate or stronger, says that tropical activity is usually "hindered" by the time the heart of the season has arrived even though the Niño peak is often not til Dec or Jan. If you get a little time, I recommend you go back in history and look at seasons during oncoming El Nino, especially moderate or stronger. If you average them out, you'd see why I'm saying the heart of the season would likely be "hindered" should a moderate or stronger El Niño look to be on the way. Even an oncoming weak El Niño tends to reduce activity on average though not by as much since very active seasons like 1969 and 2004 have occurred during oncoming weak El
Niño thus skewing the average.

We still need to get through the so-called spring ENSO unpredictability barrier before I could have high confidence in an ENSO prediction for this fall. Look at the El Niño fake-out of last spring, for example. But early indicators like Eq. OHC sure are pointing in an El Niño direction. IF we really are headed to El Niño, they typically start before the Oct/Nov period you mentioned.

Moderate El Niño? imo, there's not enough time for that in 2018 unless the atmosphere suddenly gets very El Niño coupled.

More than enough time actually. Things can shift in a matter of weeks.The El Nino's of 2009 and 2006 didn't really take off until late June and by ASO we were in a moderate El Nino. Also the CPC does not always wait for 5 consecutive tri-monthlies to call for an El Nino or a La Nina if conditions are already in place.

[Kingarabian]

Here's the WWB event on CDAS 850mb wind analysis:



It almost covers the entire equatorial western Pacific. Let's see if it can reach the Central and Eastern Pacific.

[Icybubba]

I realize that but don't be fooled as it can still happen per history, especially with the OHC already up to +0.9:
- 2009: still cold neutral MAM and went to strong Nino
- 1986: still cold neutral even later, AMJ, and went to moderate Nino
- 1968: still cold neutral MAM and went to moderate Nino

The cold neutral was hurting bad at this time in 2009 [img]http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomw.4.23.2009.gif[img] comparing it to now, we're much deeper into col-neutral [img]http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomw.4.23.2018.gif[img]

It's not too far off from 2009.

And 2017 this time of the year was deep into warm neutral and we ended up with a La Nina:



There's a specific SST anomaly configuration that the ocean has to have to allow for an El Nino or a La Nina, and so for the global ocean SST anomalies have a setup that favors El Nino.

It took until December for the La Nina to form, and that's the likely time frame for the potential El Nino, thank you for proving my point

[Kingarabian]

The cold neutral was hurting bad at this time in 2009 [img]http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomw.4.23.2009.gif[img] comparing it to now, we're much deeper into col-neutral [img]http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomw.4.23.2018.gif[img]

It's not too far off from 2009.

And 2017 this time of the year was deep into warm neutral and we ended up with a La Nina:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cF3ybj7.gif[img]

There's a specific SST anomaly configuration that the ocean has to have to allow for an El Nino or a La Nina, and so for the global ocean SST anomalies have a setup that favors El Nino.

It took until December for the La Nina to form, and that's the likely time frame for the potential El Nino, thank you for proving my point

How, when La Nina conditions were in place during JAS 2017 and took off during ASO 2017.

Here's the ONI:

[Icybubba]

It's not too far off from 2009.

And 2017 this time of the year was deep into warm neutral and we ended up with a La Nina:



There's a specific SST anomaly configuration that the ocean has to have to allow for an El Nino or a La Nina, and so for the global ocean SST anomalies have a setup that favors El Nino.

It took until December for the La Nina to form, and that's the likely time frame for the potential El Nino, thank you for proving my point

How, when La Nina conditions were in place during JAS 2017 and took off during ASO 2017.

Here's the ONI:

And said La Nina honestly did not have too much effect on the season because it formed so late

[Ntxw]

Lets get back to ENSO data and analysis.

Anecdotal statements without supporting information isn't helpful here. We have numerous Atlantic indicators threads to hash that out.

[CyclonicFury]

WWB not looking very impressive in the latest forecast. Models have also backed off the idea of WPAC development which would also mean a weaker WWB. Fairly strong trades are expected to continue through early May. The subsurface warm pool is impressive but it is going to have a hard time reaching the surface if trades do not slow down east of the dateline soon.