ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

The cooling of the pacific waters continues as shown at the latest data graphic.

Link

Not only that, but if you look at the anomalies for the Atlantic, you will see that they have warmed a bit.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Link



At link above you can see the graphic from the POAMA model,and from the past 3 weeks,which had the line sligtly aboove the neutral line,that same graphic now shows a forecast for ENSO that is between Neutral and La Nina thru September.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the models for the past couple of months, most of the models seem to be in agreement that we will be seeing at least neutral conditions through the first part of Hurricane Season.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

[cycloneye]

2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.92
2007010820070114 0.83
2007011520070121 0.57
2007012220070128 0.43
2007012920070204 0.32
2007020520070211 0.20




This data is from el nino 3-4 area,and shows the decline in the temperatures,after the peak on November 26th. Link

[boca]

What's the possibilty of La Nina rather than neutral for the upcoming hurricane season.

[Hurricaneman]

What's the possibilty of La Nina rather than neutral for the upcoming hurricane season.

Id say a 25% chance of La Nina and a 60% chance of nutral

[AussieMark]

the POAMA model brings Nino 3.4 to -0.77 during March but has it moderating thereafter

-0.77 for March
-0.66 for April
-0.53 for May
-0.47 for June
-0.38 for Jul
-0.33 for August
-0.31 for September

[Jim Hughes]

the POAMA model brings Nino 3.4 to -0.77 during March but has it moderating thereafter

-0.77 for March
-0.66 for April
-0.53 for May
-0.47 for June
-0.38 for Jul
-0.33 for August
-0.31 for September

This forecast shows a weak La Nina, by NOAA standards , in the trimonthly readings for MAM , AMJ.

[cycloneye]

Current Conditions
As of mid-February 2007 conditions indicate that the El Niño event has ended. SSTs are currently observed to be approximately 0.5C above average in the parts of the equatorial Pacific, particularly near the dateline. In the ENSO relevant regions of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies have declined considerably since their peak values in December 2006. Cold SST anomalies have developed in the eastern Pacific, reaching approximately -1.0C below average near 125W. The deep, or downward, thermocline perturbations in the eastern Pacific, associated with the El Niño event, have been replaced over the past month with shallow anomalies. The upwelling Kelvin wave associated with the shallow thermocline anomalies originated in the off-equatorial western Pacific, and has been slightly amplified by large-scale easterly wind anomalies since late December. These easterly wind anomalies are also helping to draw these subsurface temperature anomalies toward the surface, resulting in the localized cold SST anomalies. Currently the thermocline is shallower than normal across most of the equatorial Pacific, and the Trade Winds have been anomalously easterly.



Link

Interesting to read all of about this independent firm data shows in terms of the forecast for ENSO which shows El Nino to haved ended and Neutral conditions are taking over.Any comments about this forecast are welcomed.

[P.K.]

Interesting, yet another different definition. I've run the monthly Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 anomaly values since 1950 through a stats programme (Weekly values don't go back nearly that far) and it gave the following interquartile ranges.

Nino 3: -0.66C, +0.37C
Nino 3.4: -0.56C, +0.52C
Nino 4: -0.40C, +0.54C

This doesn't take into account the time of year as they mention they use as I've just run the whole lot through the programme.

[cycloneye]

The 2/7/07 data shows more cooling of the subsurface waters.

[WeatherEmperor]

Well I suppose the implication here is that El Nino has ended. Now the next question is will a La Nina develop?

<RICKY>

[HURAKAN]

Getting cooler @ the equator!!!

[AussieMark]

Hasn't ended quite yet. Nino 4 region got warmer last week which allowed Nino 3.4 region 3 month average to remain above El Nino levels

altho by next week I assume El Nino will be BOM neutral criteria

I predict they will say its neutral when the update comes out today

[cycloneye]

Hasn't ended quite yet. Nino 4 region got warmer last week which allowed Nino 3.4 region 3 month average to remain above El Nino levels

altho by next week I assume El Nino will be BOM neutral criteria

I predict they will say its neutral when the update comes out today

Let's see what their language be in the next update that will come within the next few hours.I think so too about putting the Neutral word but we will see.

[AussieMark]

Summary: The 2006/07 El Niño has ended

The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph).

What does this mean for Australia? Firstly, while the end of the El Niño would normally be associated with a return to more normal rainfall patterns, it should not be seen as a precursor to drought-breaking rains. This particularly applies to water supplies in parts of eastern and southern Australia, which in some instances require several years of healthy rainfalls to recover to a satisfactory level. Nonetheless, we can be cautiously optimistic that there will be a general easing of dry conditions in drought-affected areas over the next one to two seasons.

A La Niña in 2007?
The chance of a La Niña developing in 2007 is thought to be higher than the long-term average (which is about one in five or 20%) because (a) they have a tendency to follow an El Niño; (b) the El Niño has decayed somewhat earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Niña to begin developing during the critical March to June period; and (c) a large pool of cold sub-surface water has developed in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña events are generally associated with wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the country from about autumn.


In Brief

* Equatorial Pacific SSTs have further cooled and are below El Niño thresholds.
* Negative subsurface anomalies have strengthened and reached the surface in the eastern Pacific.
* The SOI has a current (19th January) 30-day value of −3.
* Trade Winds have generally been close to or somewhat stronger than average in the western Pacific during February.
* Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been close to average.
* Most computer models predict cool neutral conditions in the first half of 2007.

Source

[cycloneye]

Really,not a surprise what the Aussies are saying.Now,what we have to watch for is if during the 2007 hurricane season,La Nina appears or Neutral Conditions will be the rule.

[Windtalker1]

Doesn't Neutral condictions see stronger and more Hurricanes than La Nina condictions?

[cycloneye]

Doesn't Neutral condictions see stronger and more Hurricanes than La Nina condictions?

Yes as 2004-05 showed when Neutral Conditions were at that time.

[Jim Hughes]

Summary: A La Niña in 2007?
(b) the El Niño has decayed somewhat earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Niña to begin developing during the critical March to June period; and (c)

This is what most people were failing to understand several weeks back and I even tried to get this across over at easternuswx. The timing of this subsurface changeover was very important and it's early arrival set the table better for a La Nina to develop.