ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Thanks. So it looks like the two prior monthly SSTA data that I took from here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... .ascii.txt

...for May and June are fine.

It's just the number I ball parked for July (+1.58C) was too high, since the weeklies are taken from the older dataset. In order to bring the MJJ tercile down from what I arrived at (+1.14C) to the official value +1.02C seen at:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/oni.data

...then the actual monthly 3.4 SSTA for July would have had to be somewhere around +1.22C instead of +1.58C. +0.36C is a pretty big difference between datasets.

[+1.02C*3 - (+0.97C + 0.87C)] = +1.22C

The different datasets have had some profound restructuring of some ENSO events notably the El Nino's. 2009 during it's time would've been tracked as a strong Nino then changed borderline and now solidly moderate similar to 2002. Eliminates 1957-58, 1968-69, and 2014-15 as unbroken multi-year events.

[Hurricaneman]

soi index

90 day -14.00
30 day -14.23
aug 4th -39.03

[cycloneye]

Eric Webb ‏@webberweather · 20m20 minutes ago
Latest MEI value was the 2nd highest on record & closest 5 Jun-Jul rankings maintained Strong status thru Dec #ElNino

[HURRICANELONNY]

Nice little write up on yahoo:

http://io9.com/all-signs-indicate-a-new ... 1722216118

[Hurricaneman]

soi index

90 day -14.17
30 day -15.43
aug 5th -32.96

the SOI is dropping like a rock

[Kingarabian]

Dailys on Levi Cowan's site are almost @ 2.0 for Nino 3.4.

[Hurricaneman]

soi index

90 day -13.08
30 day -18.21
Aug 9th -4.37

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Almost a super Niño

Niño 4 = 0.9C
Niño 3.4 = 1.9C
Niño 3 = 2.3C
Niño 1+2 = 2.6C

[Ntxw]

This week's update will be 1.9C...almost super for a weekly reading.

[Ntxw]

As comparison this week's reading matches 2009's highest weekly reading which occured late December. For 1997 the same week as this reading back then was 1.8C so both are still side by side at 3.4

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update of 8/10/15 that has nino 3.4 at +1.9C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Crazy downwelling wave again

[Ntxw]

El Nino background base state has kicked in full gear. Wpac and Epac should easily produce tropical cyclones without the assistance of MJO, which is virtually nonexistent anyway.

[SeGaBob]

What's the highest 3.4 has been? I know it was in 1997, but i'm curious what the temperature was and if we have a shot at breaking it.

Thanks in advance

[Ntxw]

2.8C is the highest weekly reading late Nov of 1997. However historically trimonthlies are used as a running average which for ONI is 2.3C

[Kingarabian]

I think we have a shot 2.8. But first let's get to 2.0.

[Ntxw]

Another WWB just happened that well didn't seem too strong in the models but ended up more potent. Its becoming so common not even a big deal it seems.

[Hurricaneman]

soi index

90 day -12.74
30 day -18.35
Aug 10th -4.67

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Another WWB just happened that well didn't seem too strong in the models but ended up more potent. Its becoming so common not even a big deal it seems.

Should continue with the Typhoons. Will these large typhoons continue into Nov? Possible buckle of Jet stream?

[Ntxw]

Another WWB just happened that well didn't seem too strong in the models but ended up more potent. Its becoming so common not even a big deal it seems.

Should continue with the Typhoons. Will these large typhoons continue into Nov? Possible buckle of Jet stream?

They should. In fact Molave while not an impressive typhoon is undergoing big extratropical deepening and shuffle the North Pacific, thus the European and GFS flipping to deep central conus trof next week.