ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Iknownothing]

I've been following this forum religiously for well over a year now. I've been attempting to register with no success until recently. Just wanted to say thank you to everyone who has been participating in this forum, I have learned so much just reading this topic.
I have a question though, and please reference my username if it seems like a dumb question. I Live in Socal and there's been a lot of talk about "the blob" of warmer than usual water off our coast and how storms might be less numerous with this El Nino because of it. However, I was wondering, due to the water being warmer, wouldn't storms this winter that did eventually track our way be slightly stronger than they would be normally from crossing over the warmer than usual water?

[Ntxw]

I've been following this forum religiously for well over a year now. I've been attempting to register with no success until recently. Just wanted to say thank you to everyone who has been participating in this forum, I have learned so much just reading this topic.
I have a question though, and please reference my username if it seems like a dumb question. I Live in Socal and there's been a lot of talk about "the blob" of warmer than usual water off our coast and how storms might be less numerous with this El Nino because of it. However, I was wondering, due to the water being warmer, wouldn't storms this winter that did eventually track our way be slightly stronger than they would be normally from crossing over the warmer than usual water?

This has been an ongoing debate between many about this El Nino and California drought relief. There is no definitive answer, however it is in the state's favor. Could it not produce like 1997? Sure but really an El Nino of this magnitude is something the state wants to see. The STJ will be active an eventually the Nino will dominate weather oscillations as winter comes as they usually do. Odds favor storms crashing into California, particularly the southern half more likely than not vs an average year.

And welcome to the board, glad you decided to join

[Andrew92]

I really hope California gets some of the kind of rain we've been getting in Arizona this monsoon season, but without the occasional damage we've had. Our monsoon season has been crazy this year! For the most part nothing major in the Phoenix area, but there was some damage at an airport in nearby Chandler and power outages in a recent storm.

Still, California really needs the extra rain that this El Nino hopefully promises for them this winter. As long as no damage comes with it, this will hopefully be good for them.

-Andrew92

[dexterlabio]

As for that "warm blob", I guess that is susceptible to changes as we transition from summer to fall and from fall to winter... If I'm not mistaken 1997 also had that feature off the west coast of NA before transitioning to winter when El Nino reached its peak... I've been to San Francisco CA this summer and the drought has been terrible especially for the plantations. Never seen the mountains and fields in there as scorched. I do hope they will get much needed rain this year.

[Iknownothing]

Thanks for the info guys! Either way I'm excited to see that were all but certainly going to have a much better winter this year here in Long Beach than the last few. And not to mention those large swells we get during El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

+2.0 tomorrow?

[Ntxw]

+2.0 tomorrow?

It will be close, though I have an inkling it may hold at 1.9C.

1997 achieves 2C at around the same update and will maintain that value or higher continuously for the next 6 months through mid February 1998.

[Kingarabian]

+2.0 tomorrow?

It will be close, though I have an inkling it may hold at 1.9C.

1997 achieves 2C at around the same update and will maintain that value or higher continuously for the next 6 months through mid February 1998.

Interesting.

Ntxw,

this post is from a user from Weatherunderground.com:

Is this the same WWB that is being talked about in previous recent posts or is this yet another new WWB?

[Ntxw]

not a true strong WWB yet at the moment just weakened easterlies.

Its happened guys, this week's update will be 2C. First of its kind in 16 years. At least for the weekly updates, first 'super' reading. Its a big Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now 2.0C as our Niño 3.4 reading, highest since Feb 11 1998

[NDG]

Raging 2015/2016 El Nino. There's no turning back, LC has to have his head in a whole

[Ntxw]

Raging 2015/2016 El Nino. There's no turning back, LC has to have his head in a whole

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2015.gif

He is the last holdout. Reading his weatheramerica blogs, it seems LC still doesn't believe this Nino has had profound effects on global weather and that it will rapidly weaken. Mentions this one is not in the likes of 1972, 1982, and 1997, I respectfully disagree with this thought. This week's reading will certainly put him back a few steps as this still has a way's to go. Peak will be in October, November, or December not June like his original thinking.

[cycloneye]

Text of weekly CPC update that has Nino 3.4 up to +2.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

Raging 2015/2016 El Nino. There's no turning back, LC has to have his head in a whole

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2015.gif

He is the last holdout. Reading his weatheramerica blogs, it seems LC still doesn't believe this Nino has had profound effects on global weather and that it will rapidly weaken. Mentions this one is not in the likes of 1972, 1982, and 1997, I respectfully disagree with this thought. This week's reading will certainly put him back a few steps as this still has a way's to go. Peak will be in October, November, or December not June like his original thinking.

He has gone insane, is all I have to say lol.

[LarryWx]

The Euro weeklies, which are issued twice/week during the evening, are out for today. They show the warmest 2M anomalies remain near 120W through all four weeks, implying the warmest SST anomalies being there (central or east-central based El Nino).

[Ntxw]

Another westerly wind burst is on the way east of the dateline. Will it become a major WWB? The last westerly burst the GFS botched it, ended up a major one vs just a small fan on the water in real time vs forecast. I bet it will be as just a few days ago it didn't have much to start with.

[Ntxw]

Per Mike Ventrice, 4.11 sigma atmospheric index (this is not used by the CPC just his company) would be the highest since 1983 (record) and will go towards 4.3+ sigma. If you're just comparing apples to apples of this year's Nino vs the previous via the same index then might be helpful. Ocean wise though still got a way's to go to beat 1982.

[euro6208]

This is what a strong nino does to the West Pacific, the most active basin in the world...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/full_disk_ahi_true_color&width=800&height=800&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=100

[cycloneye]

The Mid-August plume of ENSO models have the peak around December,January and Febuary.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -sst_table

[Ntxw]

The dynamical average is stronger than 1997 at 3.4 and statistical average is at 1.9C which is pretty wild for a statistical group that has been giving in for months. You won't see those kind of numbers often. This is going to end up a Super El Nino.