ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

Oh, one more thing worth mentioning. From the 2014-16 Nino, models would tank around June and January, then go back up once a new warm sub-surface pool would develop.

[Ntxw]

With all due respect, calling this thing dead before it even matures is too soon. Sure it may just end up warm neutral but it may also be just enough for an event if you hold around 5C through 2017 which who is to say that can't happen? Perhaps a strong or moderate event may be off the table. 2014-2015 should've been a prime example of backing off but it kept steady enough that in the end the CPC had to call it March of 2015 because 0.5C or greater was sustained.

Also this configuration is also not something we have seen too often, it seems to be upper warmth of the ocean that's been holding it while the deeper waters doesn't want to. Which will win out in the end? We've also seen strong convection in the far eastern basin, which is associated more with a coastal Nino this spring, at the same time we had convection over the maritime which is more in tune to La Nina. Very strange if you ask me

[LarryWx]

With all due respect, calling this thing dead before it even matures is too soon. Sure it may just end up warm neutral but it may also be just enough for an event if you hold around 5C through 2017 which who is to say that can't happen? Perhaps a strong or moderate event may be off the table. 2014-2015 should've been a prime example of backing off but it kept steady enough that in the end the CPC had to call it March of 2015 because 0.5C or greater was sustained.

Also this configuration is also not something we have seen too often, it seems to be upper warmth of the ocean that's been holding it while the deeper waters doesn't want to. Which will win out in the end? We've also seen strong convection in the far eastern basin, which is associated more with a coastal Nino this spring, at the same time we had convection over the maritime which is more in tune to La Nina. Very strange if you ask me

Yeah, that is a crazy call to call it "dead" already, especially basing the call on models with highly questionable accuracy. Keep in mind that this is his style and he has had his share of busts as he often likes to go all in and make very bold, dramatic calls even with a significant risk of being wrong.
I don't see how anyone this early could make a 100% certain call on either a Niño or no Nino. Saying likely no Nino is one thing but calling its chances dead already based on questionable modeling with it already borderline weak and with a -SOI dominated first half of June?

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/872659717453205504

[Kingarabian]

A good amount of key variables remain favorable for atleast a weak El Nino.

- Warm PDO
- Warm anomalies near the surface
- SOI turning favorable thus will allow for favorable upper winds and forecast to remain as such.
- Responding SSTs.

[NDG]

A good amount of key variables remain favorable for atleast a weak El Nino.

- Warm PDO
- Warm anomalies near the surface
- SOI turning favorable thus will allow for favorable upper winds and forecast to remain as such.
- Responding SSTs.

Regarding the SOI, the negative values for the past week have not been big enough to turn the 30 day average into the negative territory, if anything it has gone up. The atmosphere is as neutral as it can be. The problem is that pressures have really fallen that much in Tahiti while pressures went up in Australia, now the Euro is forecasting pressures back down to at least near average in its 7-10 day range.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/872659717453205504

How good is the NMME?

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/872659717453205504

How good is the NMME?

It is Erik Blake at the NHC. He knows more than me about it lol.

[RL3AO]

The NMME isn't a separate model. It's an ensemble of many climate/ENSO models (It stands for North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It's analogous to the TCVN that we see for hurricane forecasts. It's just a blend of many models like the GFS, Euro, UKMet, etc.

[cycloneye]

CPC June update released at 6/8/17 has Neutral ENSO favored 50%-55% thru the summer and Fall.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
08 June 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.

During May, ENSO-neutral continued, though sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average in the east-central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were near +0.5°C in most of the Niño regions, except for the easternmost Niño-1+2, which was at +0.2°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during May [Fig. 3], reflecting the expansion of above-average sub-surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4] in association with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. While ocean temperatures were elevated, the atmosphere was close to average. Atmospheric convection anomalies were weak over the central tropical Pacific and Maritime Continent [Fig. 5], while the lower-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific. Both the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Equatorial SOI were also near zero. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.

Many models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the models from the latest runs of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are now favoring the continuation of ENSO-neutral. These predictions, combined with the near-average atmospheric conditions over the Pacific, have resulted in slightly more confidence for the persistence of ENSO-neutral (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/872804603955433473

[Kingarabian]

A good amount of key variables remain favorable for atleast a weak El Nino.

- Warm PDO
- Warm anomalies near the surface
- SOI turning favorable thus will allow for favorable upper winds and forecast to remain as such.
- Responding SSTs.

Regarding the SOI, the negative values for the past week have not been big enough to turn the 30 day average into the negative territory, if anything it has gone up. The atmosphere is as neutral as it can be. The problem is that pressures have really fallen that much in Tahiti while pressures went up in Australia, now the Euro is forecasting pressures back down to at least near average in its 7-10 day range.

That's because it's a monthly average and we still have more daily positives than daily negatives. The negative daily's will have to be accounted for. The 30 day will tank as soon as we're through with the positives. See previous pages on the current status of the SOI for more detailed explanation and analysis (from Larry).

Both the GFS and the Euro have a negative SOI setup in at least the next 10 days.

[LarryWx]

The NMME isn't a separate model. It's an ensemble of many climate/ENSO models (It stands for North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It's analogous to the TCVN that we see for hurricane forecasts. It's just a blend of many models like the GFS, Euro, UKMet, etc.

Thanks for the primer on the NMME. The biggest problem I have with it is that it is just US and Canadian models. I'd much rather see a blend of European, Asian, and Australian models for less inaccuracy.

[LarryWx]

The NMME isn't a separate model. It's an ensemble of many climate/ENSO models (It stands for North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It's analogous to the TCVN that we see for hurricane forecasts. It's just a blend of many models like the GFS, Euro, UKMet, etc.

Thanks for the primer on the NMME. The biggest problem I have with it is that it is just US and Canadian models. I'd much rather see a blend of European, Asian, and Australian models for less inaccuracy.

And now I've gotten a glimpse of the June Euro update from a tweet. It appears to be cooler than its prior run in 3.4 though I won't be 100% sure til I see the numbers, themselves.

[NDG]

A good amount of key variables remain favorable for atleast a weak El Nino.

- Warm PDO
- Warm anomalies near the surface
- SOI turning favorable thus will allow for favorable upper winds and forecast to remain as such.
- Responding SSTs.

Regarding the SOI, the negative values for the past week have not been big enough to turn the 30 day average into the negative territory, if anything it has gone up. The atmosphere is as neutral as it can be. The problem is that pressures have really fallen that much in Tahiti while pressures went up in Australia, now the Euro is forecasting pressures back down to at least near average in its 7-10 day range.

That's because it's a monthly average and we still have more daily positives than daily negatives. The negative daily's will have to be accounted for. The 30 day will tank as soon as we're through with the positives. See previous pages on the current status of the SOI for more detailed explanation and analysis (from Larry).

Both the GFS and the Euro have a negative SOI setup in at least the next 10 days.

My point is that we have not seen the daily SOI index tank well into the -20s and -30s like it did back in April because pressures have not fallen much over Tahiti despite pressure rising over Australia otherwise the 30 day average would had been lower than that by now.

[NDG]

So in another words, once again the Euro was warm biased from a few months ago.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/872853627685228545

[Kingarabian]

Regarding the SOI, the negative values for the past week have not been big enough to turn the 30 day average into the negative territory, if anything it has gone up. The atmosphere is as neutral as it can be. The problem is that pressures have really fallen that much in Tahiti while pressures went up in Australia, now the Euro is forecasting pressures back down to at least near average in its 7-10 day range.

That's because it's a monthly average and we still have more daily positives than daily negatives. The negative daily's will have to be accounted for. The 30 day will tank as soon as we're through with the positives. See previous pages on the current status of the SOI for more detailed explanation and analysis (from Larry).

Both the GFS and the Euro have a negative SOI setup in at least the next 10 days.

My point is that we have not seen the daily SOI index tank well into the -20s and -30s like it did back in April because pressures have not fallen much over Tahiti despite pressure rising over Australia otherwise the 30 day average would had been lower than that by now.

Which is fine because if the number of daily negatives are abundant, then you don't need daily's with big negatives for there to be a big drop. It'll just take a little longer for the drop to show. Darwin's pressure averages are also similar to those of past Nino seasons.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting as always the blog by CPC.Below an excerpt.

Despite the warmer sea surface temperatures, the atmosphere is not behaving like El Niño. During May, the indicators that we track looked very average, including both the upper-level and near-surface winds over the equatorial Pacific and the amount of rain and cloudiness in the central Pacific and Indonesia. The indexes that measure the difference in the atmospheric pressure between the central Pacific and the far western Pacific, the Southern Oscillation Index and the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, were both close to zero in May, indicating, again: neutral conditions.

Most of the recent forecast models predict that the Niño3.4 region will move closer to average temperatures over the next few months. The average of all the dynamical model forecasts in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble flattens out at slightly above the long-term mean for the rest of this year. Averaging all model forecasts together usually produces the best forecast, because it reduces the noise and highlights the signal. Stay tuned—next month, I’m writing a post all about computer climate models. (Try to contain your excitement!)

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -breakfast

[NDG]

The El Nino ship is getting emptier and emptier, lol.
You still have time to jump off before it completely sinks, lol.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/873203409813467137

[NDG]

And more tweets from the Pros, I'm sure Dr Phil is coming out next, lol.
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/873185249160810497