ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

RMM shows the models moving the MJO into the Indian ocean with some amplification. Probably the reason why the GFS is showing a strong easterly burst. The SOI has been tanking and will continue to tank for the next couple of days at least, possibly the next 5-7 days.So we'll see what happens.

[Kingarabian]

This certainly isn't 2015.
https://i.imgur.com/g1YO4zYl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/6ae1j2ml.jpg
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.

Looks surprisingly like 2017 so we’ll have to see what happens

2017 was significantly cooler. It never even approached the heat there currently.

2017 and 2010 are no longer analogs. 2005 still on the table though.

Edit: Maybe pass on 2005. Sure at the subsurface, there's a big correlation. Very intriguing. But in comparison @ the surface, 2005 had a considerably weaker El Nino input when we compare water temps near Indonesia, -PMM, and -PDO, and the Nino regions.

2005:


2019:

[Kingarabian]

This certainly isn't 2015.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/g1YO4zYl.jpg[/rl]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/6ae1j2ml.jpg[url]
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.

Interesting. Much warmer anomalies aside and they're almost complete copies. Warm anomalies progressing east followed by cooler anomalies.

[NotSparta]

This certainly isn't 2015.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/g1YO4zYl.jpg[/rl]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/6ae1j2ml.jpg[url]
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.

Interesting. Much warmer anomalies aside and they're almost complete copies. Warm anomalies progressing east followed by cooler anomalies.

Yeah, but that's just the normal El Niño pattern. The extra warmth is what made 2015

[mrbagyo]

El Nino has a gift to SE Asian Countries - the dipterocarps are flowering in unison (seed fall should occur in June or July). This phenomenon is called Masting - this typically happen during hot/ dry season.

Trees in the Dipterocarp family are notorious for their erratic / infrequent fruiting (about every 5 to 7 years interval).

PS- I'm a native tree enthusiast and this phenomenon is some sort of a blessing (I'll have some planting materials)

[chaser1]

El Nino has a gift to SE Asian Countries - the dipterocarps are flowering in unison (seed fall should occur in June or July). This phenomenon is called Masting - this typically happen during hot/ dry season.

Trees in the Dipterocarp family are notorious for their erratic / infrequent fruiting (about every 5 to 7 years interval).

PS- I'm a native tree enthusiast and this phenomenon is some sort of a blessing (I'll have some planting materials)

Interesting..... but random

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/sta ... 56608?s=20

Conditions could put the brakes on El Nino


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[Kingarabian]

Atmosphere beginning to transition to neutral? Or maybe it's because models amplifying the MJO in the IO. Unless we get successive trade bursts over a 60 day period the atmosphere is still in El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

This certainly isn't 2015.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/g1YO4zYl.jpg[/rl]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/6ae1j2ml.jpg[url]
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.

Interesting. Much warmer anomalies aside and they're almost complete copies. Warm anomalies progressing east followed by cooler anomalies.

Yeah, but that's just the normal El Niño pattern. The extra warmth is what made 2015

2006, 2009, 2018 developed differently compared to 2014-2015 and what we've been seeing since the beginning of the year.

[NotSparta]

:uarrow: Atmosphere beginning to transition to neutral? Or maybe it's because models amplifying the MJO in the IO. Unless we get successive trade bursts over a 60 day period the atmosphere is still in El Nino.

Yeah, looks like it's about time for an EWB, due to the IO MJO. I'd probably expect another WWB after.



However, if the trend this graphic implies is true, a transition may be beginning.

Also, this is a real bad time for an EWB, as the subsfc anomalies are falling fast after the previous WWB failed to warm the subsfc like the WWB in February

[CyclonicFury]

April ECMWF plume shows a wide range of possibilities ranging from cool neutral to moderate El Niño conditions for ASO.

[stormlover2013]

Euro struggle with it last year, looking like neutral conditions, Mark sudduth has very good video out talking about El Niño and etc I say neutral.

[Kingarabian]

GFS going pretty strong with this EWB:


Why can't we have nice things? This models continues to have the same problem of over doing things...

Euro does not have the EWB that strong:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1119576167173054464

[NotSparta]

GFS going pretty strong with this EWB:
https://i.imgur.com/p6MUFbD.png

Why can't we have nice things? This models continues to have the same problem of over doing things...

Euro does not have the EWB that strong:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1119576167173054464

The GFS may be slightly too strong, but I'm suspecting a resolution difference being the root cause. The EWB is in short range, and it even shows the past WWB as much weaker than in the first Hovmöller diagram.

[NotSparta]

The 2010s (outside of 2015) have not been kind for El Niño. Looks like a rather strong, expansive EWB about to occur.

[cycloneye]

[NotSparta]

yeah not encouraging trends especially as ENSO sensitivity is high in April. Hopefully we go back to the WWBs soon

[WeatherEmperor]

Not sure how much this EWB will hurt the El Nino but the CFS and even the Euro to some degree show a small ramp up in Nino 3.4 going into June before slowly going down the Neutral range from Oct - Dec.




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[stormlover2013]

Good chance it’s going to be neutral in August

[Kingarabian]

Look at the RMM plots for the GFS and Euro and CFS. GFS is the most bullish one so far.
GFS:

Euro:

CFS:


Gonna take a bit more than this to kill the El Nino. Because even if the MJO follows the GFS, and goes into the MC and triggers a large scale trade burst, there's still enough warmth at the subsurface for the El Nino to survive, and then it'll still move into the Pacific with at least some decent amplitude -- triggering another WWB. And then if it does what it did in late March and follows the current Euro and CFS forecasts, where it went from the IO back to the null phase, then the status quo remains the same.