ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10101 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:11 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10102 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:42 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10103 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:49 am



His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10104 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:


His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.


I have not become of MJ Ventrice after this season, he seems to like to go against the tide :wink:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10105 Postby StruThiO » Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:10 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10106 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:35 am

On today's update:

Nino 3.4 down to +0.7C
Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
Nino 1+2 down to +0.6C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10107 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:10 am

The balance between Webb and Ventrice is interesting. What happens is often somewhere in the middle, which I think indicates a weak to moderate el nino over winter, at least.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10108 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:41 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:


His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.


I have not become of MJ Ventrice after this season, he seems to like to go against the tide :wink:



I think I've been a little skeptical after last season. :P
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10109 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:54 am

NDG wrote:On today's update:

Nino 3.4 down to +0.7C
Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
Nino 1+2 down to +0.6C


Text of update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10110 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:29 pm

StruThiO wrote:Woah!

[url]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1063893775163031559[url]


Holy WWB... That's one of the largest WWB's i've seen on this Ryan Maue graphic. If it materializes, then we wont see a cold pool form through January, and if we get the seasonal WWB during February, there will be talks about a double dip warm-Enso/El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10111 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:01 pm

Here it comes.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10112 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:50 am

More wild jumping by Nino 3.4 going to 1.3C this week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10113 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:27 pm

WWB is verifying on the GFS Hovmoller

Image

This will at least maintain the warm OHC through January if not warm it up further.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10114 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:07 pm

Text of CPC update of 11/26/18.Looks like a a broadbase El Niño instead of modoki if this keeps up.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10115 Postby Hunabku » Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:04 am

Hi fellow ENSO geeks 8-) Our current WWB isn't turning out as strong as once thought. Seems the WWB event back in late September - early October had more punch, particularly related to creating west-pacific originated kelvin wave and hence contributing to the current subsurface warming that we are seeing?

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10116 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:24 pm

Hunabku wrote:Hi fellow ENSO geeks 8-) Our current WWB isn't turning out as strong as once thought. Seems the WWB event back in late September - early October had more punch, particularly related to creating west-pacific originated kelvin wave and hence contributing to the current subsurface warming that we are seeing?

[url]https://ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.orig.eqtr.png[url]


Certainly not as strong as advertised by the models last week. But there should be enough westerly winds to keep the subsurface sufficiently warm in the short term.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10117 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:20 am

Niño 3.4 down from +1.3C last week to +1.2C this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10118 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:59 pm

ONI for SON came in at +0.7C. Since 1950 (current ONI starts then) there has never been a year with SON at least 0.7C that did not get the full 5 months. Pretty much locked this will be.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10119 Postby NDG » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:18 am

This map shows it all, El Nino is here, for those that doubted it :wink:

The biggest news from the current pattern is the much needed rainy pattern across CA since about Thanksgiving, which the Nat'l News media has not pass on the news to the rest of the country, it makes you wonder why.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10120 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:12 pm

Strong trade burst over the dateline coming up on the GFS:
Image

Let's see if it will trigger an up-welling Kelvin wave.
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