ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC has issued La Nina Watch
Only thing that's not really supporting a bonafide La Nina event so far is that the SOI continues to be cool-neutral and not in very positive territory(+7 vs +15 -> +20). Still has time to catch up though.
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Re: ENSO: CPC has issued La Nina Watch
It holds out at -.6C this week (Nino3.4). All other regions cooled-with Nino1+2 dropping to -.7C from -.1C last week.
GFS is showing another strong trade burst in the coming days. With this, and building cool subsurface anomalies -I imagine that we will see Nino3.4 drop to moderate values in the next 3-6 weeks. Despite coming on much later in the year, this Nina is already showing signs of being more robust than last year's. While I think it will peak at moderate (at most) , it would not surprise me that much to have a good run at strong Nina values in the weeklies later in the year.
GFS is showing another strong trade burst in the coming days. With this, and building cool subsurface anomalies -I imagine that we will see Nino3.4 drop to moderate values in the next 3-6 weeks. Despite coming on much later in the year, this Nina is already showing signs of being more robust than last year's. While I think it will peak at moderate (at most) , it would not surprise me that much to have a good run at strong Nina values in the weeklies later in the year.
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
UW-JISAO taking their time updating the PDO. Wonder if the streak is over or not.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:UW-JISAO taking their time updating the PDO. Wonder if the streak is over or not.
While we wait for JISAO... what does your gut instinct tell you if the streak is over or not?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
WeatherEmperor wrote:Kingarabian wrote:UW-JISAO taking their time updating the PDO. Wonder if the streak is over or not.
While we wait for JISAO... what does your gut instinct tell you if the streak is over or not?
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The waters off the NW coast of North America have cooled compared to the past month which would tilt the scale for the PDO to be more negative but the waters off Japan have cooled, which would favor warming of the PDO. I'm on the fence on whether the PDO will be negative or not for the first time in 3 years, but that has been the trend since late spring... so August could be the month that ends the streak.
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Re: ENSO Updates
For me the interesting aspect of all this is that the La Nina look is tilted to the east with Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 colder than NIno 3.4 and Nino 4. We haven't come by those too often, perhaps a contributor to the very active Atlantic season so far
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:Kingarabian wrote:UW-JISAO taking their time updating the PDO. Wonder if the streak is over or not.
While we wait for JISAO... what does your gut instinct tell you if the streak is over or not?
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The waters off the NW coast of North America have cooled compared to the past month which would tilt the scale for the PDO to be more negative but the waters off Japan have cooled, which would favor warming of the PDO. I'm on the fence on whether the PDO will be negative or not for the first time in 3 years, but that has been the trend since late spring... so August could be the month that ends the streak.
shows as +.0.9 .....
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Re: ENSO Updates
Yes, Jisao finally updated and it only ticked down a nudge to +0.09 from +0.10 in July. The streak on Jisao continues
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Re: ENSO Updates
NOAA/CPC also updated ONI now to ERSST V5. Notice some changes, including increasing 2014-2015 (really a multiyear Nino through 2016) a little stronger than before.
Also the super Nino 2015-2016 is now the strongest on record in that data-set. Both raw intensity and duration
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
ERSSTv5 is running warmer than ERSSTv4 so its possible this year might not make the Nina in this new set. Previously it was -0.1C for prior now +0.2C in the latest ONI. The methods in which is updated every so often reflects the warming oceans through the past decades.
Also the super Nino 2015-2016 is now the strongest on record in that data-set. Both raw intensity and duration
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
ERSSTv5 is running warmer than ERSSTv4 so its possible this year might not make the Nina in this new set. Previously it was -0.1C for prior now +0.2C in the latest ONI. The methods in which is updated every so often reflects the warming oceans through the past decades.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Wouldn't adjustments for global warming based warmer oceans in the background go the other way though (cooling rather than warming)?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
LarryWx wrote::uarrow: Wouldn't adjustments for global warming based warmer oceans in the background go the other way though (cooling rather than warming)?
Well when you include years in the early period (likely much cooler) I would think it would effect events in the later years while raw SST temps are increasing. If the running means were only 10 or 5 years per say it would likely look cooler. The rate of warming SSTs in the later years is likely greater than the means could capture to balance it out in the latest data set.
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Re: ENSO Updates
also, the water temps in the EPAC MDR are running below normal. That's the big difference between this year and last year
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:NOAA/CPC also updated ONI now to ERSST V5. Notice some changes, including increasing 2014-2015 (really a multiyear Nino through 2016) a little stronger than before.
Also the super Nino 2015-2016 is now the strongest on record in that data-set. Both raw intensity and duration
ERSSTv5 is running warmer than ERSSTv4 so its possible this year might not make the Nina in this new set. Previously it was -0.1C for prior now +0.2C in the latest ONI. The methods in which is updated every so often reflects the warming oceans through the past decades.
Do you know what the weeklies are based on? This +0.2 for JJA is now a much better match to the average of the weeklies. Based on the weeklies for July-present, JAS is headed to either -0.1 or -0.2. So, a late oncoming weak to moderate Niña similar to 83-4, 84-5, 05-6, or 08-9 would still seem quite possible.
Consider this if it drops 0.4 to -0.2: that 0.4 cooling would tie the biggest drop on record (back to 1950) from JJA to JAS with 83-4 & 10-11.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
LarryWx wrote:Do you know what the weeklies are based on? This +0.2 for JJA is now a much better match to the average of the weeklies. Based on the weeklies for July-present, JAS is headed to either -0.1 or -0.2. So, a late oncoming weak to moderate Niña similar to 83-4, 84-5, 05-6, or 08-9 would still seem quite possible.
Consider this if it drops 0.4 to -0.2: that 0.4 cooling would tie the biggest drop on record (back to 1950) from JJA to JAS with 83-4 & 10-11.
The weeklies I believe I are based off OISST
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oisst
"Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Weekly OISST.v2 (1981-2010 base period) Niño 1+2 (0-10°South)(90°West-80°West) Niño 3 (5°North-5°South)(150°West-90°West) Niño 4 (5°North-5°South) (160°East-150°West) Niño 3.4 (5°North-5°South)(170-120°West):
Data"
ERRSTv5 actually is a better representation compared to the weeklies than v3 or v4. We were seeing +3.0 readings in the weeklies at some point in 2015.
A late blooming Nina is definitely still possible, probable even. Just there is also a shot it may miss with the new data compared to v4
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
The September 25th update is as follows:
Region 3.4 is at -0.4C
Region 3 is at -1.0C
Region 1+2 is at -1.1C
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Region 3.4 is at -0.4C
Region 3 is at -1.0C
Region 1+2 is at -1.1C
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