ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[tstorm98]

Daily 3.4 region index now above 1.5 degree Celsius!

[Hurricaneman]

I think the WWB is doing its magic and the next update will be in strong El Nino range with possibly a 1.6 to 1.7 positive anomaly

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[Ntxw]

This is from Philip Klotzbach, the WWB have been numerous and they have been moving farther east than usual. The graph pretty much speaks for itself, this Nino is not lacking in that department.

[asd123]

When will the data outage be replaced? The bottom one has been appearing on some days, but the top one (upper right) has been out for a while now.

Image courtesy of NWS NOAA:

Can someone tell me what exactly is going on? It's gotten worse, as an entire 10 degrees in longitude have been wiped out for a few days now. I tried Google only to find absolutely nothing.

[LarryWx]

June ended up at -10.3, which is near June of 1972. 6/1-15 was near +5 while 6/16-30 was near -25.

Per the 0Z Euro, volatility is ahead: SOI should drop back to near low -30's 7/2-3 before rapidly rising to the general vicinity of +20 by 7/6-7. Then it is predicted to fall back some but still be around +10 or maybe +teens 7/10-11.

Based on this, 7/1-11 may end up averaging not far from 0...perhaps near -1.

[Dean_175]

Does anyone know whats about to happen to the MJO? Last time I looked GFS shows it to suddenly stop propagating and crash back down to low amplitude. What would cause such a strong MJO to stop propagating?

[Kingarabian]

The heat has been down right brutal here in Hawaii. Record high temperatures have been set.

[dexterlabio]

Isn't it a characteristic during an El Nino that strong MJO pulse doesn't travel further into the Western Hemisphere and stalls/gets reborn in WPAC or EPAC?

[WALL-E]

Basically you can see westerly winds dominate the whole latitude of WPAC. Stunning!

This looks more like a late August scenario.

[Kingarabian]

I think it's possible we will have 2 peaks. One around August and one during late fall.

[Ntxw]

First map for July. Doesn't get any more Nino than this.

[Ntxw]

The MJO set a July record for strongest amplitude. That is three times this year, the other Pacific one was in March, and May had one over the IO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We have passed the spring barrier. Ensemble members agree on a Super Niño and not a single one is left out here in the CFSv2 model.



Here is the best performer last year and agreed by JB

[LarryWx]

June ended up at -10.3, which is near June of 1972. 6/1-15 was near +5 while 6/16-30 was near -25.

Per the 0Z Euro, volatility is ahead: SOI should drop back to near low -30's 7/2-3 before rapidly rising to the general vicinity of +20 by 7/6-7. Then it is predicted to fall back some but still be around +10 or maybe +teens 7/10-11.

Based on this, 7/1-11 may end up averaging not far from 0...perhaps near -1.

Per the 0Z Euro, a wild SOI ride ahead. Get ready for a very steep SOI rise over the next ~4 days to perhaps close to +20 from the current ~-35 before a fall back to ~-20's to near -30 by 7/14.

[Ntxw]

Following the WWB, here comes the Oceanic Kelvin wave, evident with warm waters pushing downward again in the central Pacific

[tstorm98]

Following the WWB, here comes the Oceanic Kelvin wave, evident with warm waters pushing downward again in the central Pacific

http://i61.tinypic.com/2m5b3ma.gif

[Dean_175]

Ntxw- considering the last weekly was at 1.4C and this weeks may even be higher still, do you think that with this new KW - we will likely see ONI reach 2C at peak?

[Andrew92]

I am in the LA area this weekend, and I did a little swimming at the beach in Santa Monica. I can tell you the water wasn't what I would call cold, or even cool. It wasn't warm enough to support a hurricane by any means, but definitely comfortable.

It seems like the Pacific Ocean is cooler than this usually about this time of year. I don't think I remember a time in July it was as comfortable temperature-wise at about this time. Another sign of El Nino?

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

I am in the LA area this weekend, and I did a little swimming at the beach in Santa Monica. I can tell you the water wasn't what I would call cold, or even cool. It wasn't warm enough to support a hurricane by any means, but definitely comfortable.

It seems like the Pacific Ocean is cooler than this usually about this time of year. I don't think I remember a time in July it was as comfortable temperature-wise at about this time. Another sign of El Nino?

-Andrew92

A sign of both El Nino and +PDO.

Have fun. Nothing like Southern Cali IMO.

[Dean_175]

I am in the LA area this weekend, and I did a little swimming at the beach in Santa Monica. I can tell you the water wasn't what I would call cold, or even cool. It wasn't warm enough to support a hurricane by any means, but definitely comfortable.

It seems like the Pacific Ocean is cooler than this usually about this time of year. I don't think I remember a time in July it was as comfortable temperature-wise at about this time. Another sign of El Nino?

-Andrew92

Well the SST anomalies that define an El Nino event are confined to the equatorial region- however, it is common to get warm waters off of the west coast of North America during El Nino - and this pattern of warm water projects onto a positive PDO pattern. Doesn't happen every El Nino because you can have a negative PDO along with El Nino (ie. 2009). So the warm waters may be due to the positive PDO- and PDO is largely driven by ENSO. We have had a very positive PDO for over a year now - with warm anomalies off the west coast.

On the other hand, I am not too sure how much effect it would have on SSTs right along the shoreline , as when you get close to the coastline- temperatures can be different from what you see farther offshore.