ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[asd123]

Finally this El Nino seems to be materializing: ssta's have been on the steady increase past week or two with no significant decline, SOI negative.

Question is, is this warming permanent? Or is it temporary, only being enhanced by a hurricane or other temporary feature?

[cycloneye]

The upcoming El Nino may not help California to aliviate the drought.Read why below.

REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin


BY MARK KOBA,
CNBC
October 21, 2014
Every week, a government weather agency releases a report on the conditions of California's drought. And every week seems to bring grim news. The latest report is no exception. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that California's record-setting drought—heading into its fourth year—will likely persist or even intensify in large parts of the state.

"Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely," said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in releasing the analysis.

Related: Extreme California Drought Pays Off for Some

"While we're predicting at least a 2 to 3 percent chance that precipitation will be near normal or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits (in rainfall) the recovery will be slow," Halpert added.

The fact that the drought is nowhere near ending means the hard times will only get worse, said Michael Hanemann, an environmental economist at Arizona State University. "Another dry winter will mean this is going into territory we haven't had before," said Hanemann. "We'll have even less water to distribute, putting more stress on the system," he said. "We'll likely have more severe water shortages next spring and summer."

Record Low for Rain
There had been hope for heavy rains this winter. The weather condition known as El Nino was expected to bring strong rains to the state, but those projections have been toned way down. Now NOAA predicts that even if El Nino does occur, it is expected to be weak with little rainfall.

That prospect is coming on top of an already dire situation. This past year was the fourth-driest year ever for California based on rainfall and water runoff measurements. It got only around 60 percent of the yearly average precipitation.

- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/21/Even-El-N ino-May-Not-Help-Californias-Drought#sthash.rymt4F 9v.dpuf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 has the EL NIÑO nearing strong threshold by July....

[NDG]

Looks like all Ninos regions have continued to warm up by looking at the graphics, an official El Nino is just around the corner, IMO.

[cycloneye]

CPC in it's weekly update has Nino 3.4 at +0.5C and that is the same as last week's update.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[euro6208]

BOM in their weekly update now at +0.6...

[Kingarabian]

About time...

Watch it drop to 0.3C+ for absolutely no reason.

[dexterlabio]

About time...

Watch it drop to 0.3C+ for absolutely no reason.

There's nothing to hold it back now, IMO. We have a potentially warm ENSO this Autumn and additional warming is favored as we get into NHem Winter. There also seems to be a new subsurface warm pool in WPAC as the present one is just about to emerge at the surface.

[cycloneye]

A true sign of El Nino coming soon is the crash of the 30 day SOI to below -8 at El Nino threshold. That new warm subsurface pool growing in the WestCentral Pacific will be the key to put El Nino officially over the top.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the tropical tidbits site it seems to be showing an emerging El Nino madoki, lets see how that progresses as we go into 2015 as even though it could end up an el nino it could very well be a madoki one which a lot of the time leads to an active hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Is possible that the upcoming El Nino is going to be a Modoki one but is early yet to know.

[NDG]

Yes, too early to know for sure if this will turn into a Modoki El Nino, but if it does it will not be good for southern California's water deficit, IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

The NOAA charts don't agree with the tropical tidbits charts so I'm guessing that it could be errors in the data at the tropical tidbits site, we'll have to see what it looks like when the next update on the NOAA site to see

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the tropical tidbits site it seems to be showing an emerging El Nino madoki, lets see how that progresses as we go into 2015 as even though it could end up an el nino it could very well be a madoki one which a lot of the time leads to an active hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Levi's site uses satellite data only. And why would a Modoki lead to an active hurricane season? 2004 is overrated, although epic. 2002 was meh aside from a nice 4 week stretch and was mostly high latitude crap aside from Lili and Isidore. 1991 was quiet, ditto for the most part 1994. 2009 was a Modoki but not for the hurricane season. 1991-92 was not a Modoki at the end IIRC.

[NDG]

Looking at the tropical tidbits site it seems to be showing an emerging El Nino madoki, lets see how that progresses as we go into 2015 as even though it could end up an el nino it could very well be a madoki one which a lot of the time leads to an active hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Levi's site uses satellite data only. And why would a Modoki lead to an active hurricane season? 2004 is overrated, although epic. 2002 was meh aside from a nice 4 week stretch and was mostly high latitude crap aside from Lili and Isidore. 1991 was quiet, ditto for the most part 1994. 2009 was a Modoki but not for the hurricane season. 1991-92 was not a Modoki at the end IIRC.

IMO, next year should be more active for the Atlantic Season regardless if this winter's El Nino is a Modoki or not, look at 2010. I am not buying the idea that El Nino would persist through next year's hurricane season.

Unless dry conditions persist at the MDR once again through next year.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the tropical tidbits site it seems to be showing an emerging El Nino madoki, lets see how that progresses as we go into 2015 as even though it could end up an el nino it could very well be a madoki one which a lot of the time leads to an active hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Levi's site uses satellite data only. And why would a Modoki lead to an active hurricane season? 2004 is overrated, although epic. 2002 was meh aside from a nice 4 week stretch and was mostly high latitude crap aside from Lili and Isidore. 1991 was quiet, ditto for the most part 1994. 2009 was a Modoki but not for the hurricane season. 1991-92 was not a Modoki at the end IIRC.

IMO, next year should be more active for the Atlantic Season regardless if this winter's El Nino is a Modoki or not, look at 2010. I am not buying the idea that El Nino would persist through next year's hurricane season.

Unless dry conditions persist at the MDR once again through next year.

Well, we might have no El Nino this year. And even then, why aren't you buying the idea of an El Nino next year, regardless if we get one this winter or not? It's too soon to say the ATL is going to be active.

[cycloneye]

NDG,in other words you dont believe what CFSv2 forecasts of El Nino extending thru the first 7 months of 2015 and in fact turning from Weak to Moderate late in the forecast period.

[NDG]

Levi's site uses satellite data only. And why would a Modoki lead to an active hurricane season? 2004 is overrated, although epic. 2002 was meh aside from a nice 4 week stretch and was mostly high latitude crap aside from Lili and Isidore. 1991 was quiet, ditto for the most part 1994. 2009 was a Modoki but not for the hurricane season. 1991-92 was not a Modoki at the end IIRC.

IMO, next year should be more active for the Atlantic Season regardless if this winter's El Nino is a Modoki or not, look at 2010. I am not buying the idea that El Nino would persist through next year's hurricane season.

Unless dry conditions persist at the MDR once again through next year.

Well, we might have no El Nino this year. And even then, why aren't you buying the idea of an El Nino next year, regardless if we get one this winter or not? It's too soon to say the ATL is going to be active.

IMO, all indications are that we will have an El Nino though weak one, though it was not official the atmosphere also behaved very much like an El Nino during hurricane season across the EPAC and the Caribbean.
The reason why I am not buying the idea of an El Nino for next year is because I simply do not believe in long range forecast for the ENSO regions.

[NDG]

NDG,in other words you dont believe what CFSv2 forecasts of El Nino extending thru the first 7 months of 2015 and in fact turning from Weak to Moderate late in the forecast period.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/90r19y.jpg

Like I mentioned in the post above, I got to the point to where I do not believe in any long range forecasts for ENSO regions.
If the CFSv2 would had been correct a few months ago we would had been in moderate to strong El Nino by now.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting that Modoki El Nino is possible. The last El Nino was Modoki, which was 2009-2010. I notice hurricane seasons following Modoki El Nino tend to be very active like 1995, 2005, and 2010.