ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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The stalling of warming is just about over (last of easterly anomalies) in the eastern Nino regions. I'd say more or less we are already approaching moderate Nino transition, I see no evidence to believe cooling will occur.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
The MJO becomes less factor as El Nino gets stronger.
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
During a strengthening El Nino atmosphere, Madden Julian Oscillation activity often reduces.
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
During a strengthening El Nino atmosphere, Madden Julian Oscillation activity often reduces.
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:The MJO becomes less factor as El Nino gets stronger.
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
During a strengthening El Nino atmosphere, Madden Julian Oscillation activity often reduces.
Yup, MJO is often strongest in the Spring when ENSO fades and during neutral conditions. As an ENSO event matures convection will occur in favored areas related to ENSO regardless of the MJO.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Since the base for weeklies is always Thursday, I'd say the anomaly for next week would be at 1.1C, meaning CPC and BOM would declare moderate conditions
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:The stalling of warming is just about over (last of easterly anomalies) in the eastern Nino regions. I'd say more or less we are already approaching moderate Nino transition, I see no evidence to believe cooling will occur.
http://i61.tinypic.com/2rgm2ds.gif
It looks like things are steady without any big warming or cooling at this time waiting for the next wwb in May.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Niño regions for today:
Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.1ºC
Niño 3=+1.2ºC
Niño1+2=+0.7ºC
Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.1ºC
Niño 3=+1.2ºC
Niño1+2=+0.7ºC
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Re: ENSO Updates
ESPI is very positive meaning another positive signal for El Nino.
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html
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Impressive pool. All +1C anomalies at the surface, now signaling a moderate Niño. Last occurred in 2009
Unlike last year, as this pool surfaces it deepens and grows
Unlike last year, as this pool surfaces it deepens and grows
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- Blown Away
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Re: ENSO Updates
Are El Nino's happening more frequently?
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Re: ENSO Updates
Blown Away wrote:Are El Nino's happening more frequently?
Since 2004 they have been occuring much less compared to La Ninas. Prior to this current multiyear Nino we went 4 years without one.
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Nino 3.4 is up to 1.1C (moderate) , up from 0.9C a week and a half ago. Do you think values of 1.5C (strong) and above are likely by June?
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Re:
Dean_175 wrote:Nino 3.4 is up to 1.1C (moderate) , up from 0.9C a week and a half ago. Do you think values of 1.5C (strong) and above are likely by June?
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I don't see anything above 1.5c at peak as I look at it maybe 1.3 or 1.4 but heres something that could be interesting for the 2016 hurricane season as it seems as though at the sub surface there seems to be some areas of sub surface negative anomalies around the Dateline so that may be something to watch for next yearand could even set up a -neutral or La Nina by some time in 2016
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Re: Re:
Hurricaneman wrote:Dean_175 wrote:Nino 3.4 is up to 1.1C (moderate) , up from 0.9C a week and a half ago. Do you think values of 1.5C (strong) and above are likely by June?
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I don't see anything above 1.5c at peak as I look at it maybe 1.3 or 1.4 but heres something that could be interesting for the 2016 hurricane season as it seems as though at the sub surface there seems to be some areas of sub surface negative anomalies around the Dateline so that may be something to watch for next yearand could even set up a -neutral or La Nina by some time in 2016
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Almost all major models agree at least 1.5C at peak, currently it is at 1.1C, which proves them right
The stronger a Niño gets, the more likely there'd be cooler subsurface anomalies to the west.
Analogs are 1982, 1997 and 2009
Subsequently followed by moderate-to-strong, long lasting La Niñas
1982
1997
2009 (2010)
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Re: ENSO Updates
More WWB on the way...I'm thinking of at least a strong el nino anytime this year...
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Re: ENSO Updates
euro6208 wrote:More WWB on the way...I'm thinking of at least a strong el nino anytime this year...
It is already approaching moderate intensity, anomaly now at 1.1C for Niño 3.4
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MJO is non-existent now, with both RMM1 and RMM2 very close to zero. GFS ensemble is showing that what of the MJO is going to progress through phase 7 and 8 over the next 2 weeks. I wonder if this is enough to cause the SOI to move back out of the neutral positive values?
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Re: ENSO Updates
euro6208 wrote:More WWB on the way...I'm thinking of at least a strong el nino anytime this year...
May is a crucial month in terms of Nino strength. All of the major Nino's feature dominant westerlies in this month. Years like last, it does not happen and we end up with weaker ones.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Blown Away wrote:Are El Nino's happening more frequently?
Since 2004 they have been occuring much less compared to La Ninas. Prior to this current multiyear Nino we went 4 years without one.
Per CSU(unfortunately no link), the active or +positve phase of the AMO has disportionately fewer Ninos than the -phase of the cycle. La Nina or neutral conditions tend to predominate. Referenced from a forecast discussion several years ago....Grtz from KW, Rich
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Re: ENSO Updates
weatherwindow wrote:
Per CSU(unfortunately no link), the active or +positve phase of the AMO has disportionately fewer Ninos than the -phase of the cycle. La Nina or neutral conditions tend to predominate. Referenced from a forecast discussion several years ago....Grtz from KW, Rich
That's really because +PDO is associated with -AMO in the time period for which we have records for.
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