ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Ntxw
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#5901 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:36 pm

The stalling of warming is just about over (last of easterly anomalies) in the eastern Nino regions. I'd say more or less we are already approaching moderate Nino transition, I see no evidence to believe cooling will occur.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5902 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:18 pm

The MJO becomes less factor as El Nino gets stronger.

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago

During a strengthening El Nino atmosphere, Madden Julian Oscillation activity often reduces.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5903 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:The MJO becomes less factor as El Nino gets stronger.

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago

During a strengthening El Nino atmosphere, Madden Julian Oscillation activity often reduces.


Yup, MJO is often strongest in the Spring when ENSO fades and during neutral conditions. As an ENSO event matures convection will occur in favored areas related to ENSO regardless of the MJO.
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#5904 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:11 pm

Since the base for weeklies is always Thursday, I'd say the anomaly for next week would be at 1.1C, meaning CPC and BOM would declare moderate conditions

Image
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#5905 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:34 am

Whatever happened to the buoy problems we had last year?
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Re:

#5906 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:34 am

Ntxw wrote:The stalling of warming is just about over (last of easterly anomalies) in the eastern Nino regions. I'd say more or less we are already approaching moderate Nino transition, I see no evidence to believe cooling will occur.

http://i61.tinypic.com/2rgm2ds.gif


It looks like things are steady without any big warming or cooling at this time waiting for the next wwb in May.
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#5907 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:08 am

Niño regions for today:

Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.1ºC
Niño 3=+1.2ºC
Niño1+2=+0.7ºC
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5908 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:00 am

ESPI is very positive meaning another positive signal for El Nino.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html
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#5909 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:47 am

Impressive pool. All +1C anomalies at the surface, now signaling a moderate Niño. Last occurred in 2009

Unlike last year, as this pool surfaces it deepens and grows

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5910 Postby Blown Away » Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:22 pm

Are El Nino's happening more frequently?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5911 Postby Ntxw » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:24 pm

Blown Away wrote:Are El Nino's happening more frequently?


Since 2004 they have been occuring much less compared to La Ninas. Prior to this current multiyear Nino we went 4 years without one.
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#5912 Postby Dean_175 » Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:44 pm

Nino 3.4 is up to 1.1C (moderate) , up from 0.9C a week and a half ago. Do you think values of 1.5C (strong) and above are likely by June?









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Re:

#5913 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:59 pm

Dean_175 wrote:Nino 3.4 is up to 1.1C (moderate) , up from 0.9C a week and a half ago. Do you think values of 1.5C (strong) and above are likely by June?









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I don't see anything above 1.5c at peak as I look at it maybe 1.3 or 1.4 but heres something that could be interesting for the 2016 hurricane season as it seems as though at the sub surface there seems to be some areas of sub surface negative anomalies around the Dateline so that may be something to watch for next yearand could even set up a -neutral or La Nina by some time in 2016

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Re: Re:

#5914 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:03 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Dean_175 wrote:Nino 3.4 is up to 1.1C (moderate) , up from 0.9C a week and a half ago. Do you think values of 1.5C (strong) and above are likely by June?









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I don't see anything above 1.5c at peak as I look at it maybe 1.3 or 1.4 but heres something that could be interesting for the 2016 hurricane season as it seems as though at the sub surface there seems to be some areas of sub surface negative anomalies around the Dateline so that may be something to watch for next yearand could even set up a -neutral or La Nina by some time in 2016

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Almost all major models agree at least 1.5C at peak, currently it is at 1.1C, which proves them right

The stronger a Niño gets, the more likely there'd be cooler subsurface anomalies to the west.

Analogs are 1982, 1997 and 2009

Subsequently followed by moderate-to-strong, long lasting La Niñas

1982

Image

1997

Image

2009 (2010)

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5915 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 25, 2015 4:11 am

More WWB on the way...I'm thinking of at least a strong el nino anytime this year...

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5916 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Apr 25, 2015 4:13 am

euro6208 wrote:More WWB on the way...I'm thinking of at least a strong el nino anytime this year...

Image



It is already approaching moderate intensity, anomaly now at 1.1C for Niño 3.4
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#5917 Postby Dean_175 » Sat Apr 25, 2015 2:59 pm

MJO is non-existent now, with both RMM1 and RMM2 very close to zero. GFS ensemble is showing that what of the MJO is going to progress through phase 7 and 8 over the next 2 weeks. I wonder if this is enough to cause the SOI to move back out of the neutral positive values?




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Re: ENSO Updates

#5918 Postby Ntxw » Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:16 pm

euro6208 wrote:More WWB on the way...I'm thinking of at least a strong el nino anytime this year...

Image


May is a crucial month in terms of Nino strength. All of the major Nino's feature dominant westerlies in this month. Years like last, it does not happen and we end up with weaker ones.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5919 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Are El Nino's happening more frequently?


Since 2004 they have been occuring much less compared to La Ninas. Prior to this current multiyear Nino we went 4 years without one.


Per CSU(unfortunately no link), the active or +positve phase of the AMO has disportionately fewer Ninos than the -phase of the cycle. La Nina or neutral conditions tend to predominate. Referenced from a forecast discussion several years ago....Grtz from KW, Rich
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5920 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:53 pm

weatherwindow wrote:
Per CSU(unfortunately no link), the active or +positve phase of the AMO has disportionately fewer Ninos than the -phase of the cycle. La Nina or neutral conditions tend to predominate. Referenced from a forecast discussion several years ago....Grtz from KW, Rich


That's really because +PDO is associated with -AMO in the time period for which we have records for.
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