ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dexterlabio]

^^ MJO is probably the main reason SOI has risen. It's partially cancelling the El Nino's influence on SOI temporarily. SOI will likely drop again and could reach its lowest value sometime this winter after the peak(which I feel that you are correct in saying it has/is come, at least in terms of OISST weeklies). But many Ninos don't have the strongest SOI until later. In fact the most strongly negative SOI during the 1997 El Nino was not until March 1998, well after the peak.Not 100 percent sure why, but it could have to do with the fact that as the south Pacific warms seasonally from November through March, the effect on the atmosphere from ENSO shifts and changes.

Same as the 2009-2010 El Nino...the lowest SOI reading for that episode was recorded past its peak..

[cycloneye]

Let's see how it all unfolds.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 17m17 minutes ago
Unless 2015 El Nino part of some undiagnosed or unpredicted climate shift, tropical Pacific & globe should cool into potential 2016 La Nina

[Hurricaneman]

ENSO 1\2 is tanking and even a little fall in the eastern end of 3, still rising in 3 overall though but the 3\4 is still rising and 4 is pretty steady so I don't know whats going to happen but it seems as though without WWBs a general drop in the 1\2 region while 3\4 remains steady at 3.0+ until at least mid December

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

The Mid-November plume of ENSO models continue to go with the El Nino crash by next Spring and the question is if we will see La Nina or it will be Neutral by the Summer.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be steadying out at +3.0

[Dean_175]

Negative sea level/depth anomalies have now spread east of the dateline. There will be more significant negative anomalies to come as more equatorial Rossby wave energy is reflected as upwelling Kelvin waves.
Right now, there is still plenty of westerly wind anomalies to keep the thermocline deep in the east and central Pacific. But by January, the westerly anomalies will move south of the equator as the southern central and western Pacific warms seasonally. Example from 1998:




This will cause the thermocline to rise in the east and the negative depth anomalies to extend to the eastern Pacific---at that time the SST will start to drop off rapidly.

CFS is showing the positive sea level anomalies to almost completely go away by February, and be replaced with significant negative anomalies by summer. I think that there is a good chance of La Nina or at least cool neutral developing by late next year.

[Ntxw]

It will still take many months, remember nothing in ENSO happens rapidly (relatively speaking). Per say if peak is now it will still have weekly readings of 2C through December and possibly early Jan. It will hold strong status through most of winter and moderate by Spring. CFS is declining fast by slope but that slope is still seen in months not weeks. This El Nino won't officially 'end' until the last 0.5C reading which wont happen until May or June which is 7 months away. But after that we should be in neutral status and by early spring we will have a good idea if/when the Nina will come.

[WeatherGuesser]

Page with lots of words and maps that basically says 'if you want to know how this all affects our Winter '15-'16, come back in April and ask us then 'cuz it could go either way'.

http://www.weather.gov/pah/ElNinoImpactsOnWinterWeather

[Ntxw]

3.1C this week

[NDG]

So how will this affect southern California, is all I want to know. So far most of the rains that have fallen this Fall so far has been north of southern Cal, probably more than forecasted for the Pacific NW.
Nino 1+2 is indeed cooler than '97 but this is no true Modoki either.

[Ntxw]

There will be some good rains in northern California and the high Sierras next 7 days. A little rain for parts of SoCal, I'm not sure on their climo to see if that is anomalous or not

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 is indeed cooler than '97 but this is no true Modoki either.

I did find this quote interesting and going through AHPS rainfall data from NOAA for the year. 1997 type warmth where it hugs the south american coast has most anomalous rains in the southwest, modoki in the southeast US. 2015 has centered in the plains right in the middle, particularly the southern plains.

[NDG]

:uarrow: There will be some good rains in northern California and the high Sierras next 7 days. A little rain for parts of SoCal, I'm not sure on their climo to see if that is anomalous or not

I just looked really quick, compared to '97 so far this November the Pacific NW has been much wetter while southern California has had a drier month than that year.

[Ntxw]

I just looked really quick, compared to '97 so far this November the Pacific NW has been much wetter while southern California has had a drier month than that year.

A lot of that has to do with the MJO I think. It's been anti Nino since late October, reflecting in the SOI. There should be a SOI crash in the coming weeks and the MJO fading. Lets see if the Nino reverts back to background influence, if it doesn't then probably something else is at play.

[cycloneye]

El Nino of 2015 keeps creeping up now at +3.1C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[curtadams]

I just looked really quick, compared to '97 so far this November the Pacific NW has been much wetter while southern California has had a drier month than that year.

82 would be a closer comparison, as the heat distribution is more like that super El Nino than 97. 82 had a more gradual run-up than 97 as well, although less so than 15.

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 5m5 minutes ago  State College, PA
SOI rise to continue next week, but look out Crash coming late next week and cattle prod to pattern starts Wild Dec 15-25 US!

[Alyono]

Reminders about next year:

1. Some of the models still show an el nino. Neutral or nina is not guaranteed.

2. If the pdo is highly positive and ssts stay boiling just north of the equator, its 1983 all over again. Dont only pay attention to the equator. Look at the whole tropical pacific. Im thinking the epac will again be the hot spot next year

[WPBWeather]

Reminders about next year:

1. Some of the models still show an el nino. Neutral or nina is not guaranteed.

2. If the pdo is highly positive and ssts stay boiling just north of the equator, its 1983 all over again. Dont only pay attention to the equator. Look at the whole tropical pacific. Im thinking the epac will again be the hot spot next year

Actually, the hurricanes in groups article I posted earlier this season seems to be gaining more credence in the scientific community. And I'll bet the ATL will be more active than many believe. Just an opinion about the ATL but the hurricanes in groups is not my idea, but makes sense after seeing 2004-5.

[Kingarabian]

Reminders about next year:

1. Some of the models still show an el nino. Neutral or nina is not guaranteed.

2. If the pdo is highly positive and ssts stay boiling just north of the equator, its 1983 all over again. Dont only pay attention to the equator. Look at the whole tropical pacific. Im thinking the epac will again be the hot spot next year

Actually, the hurricanes in groups article I posted earlier this season seems to be gaining more credence in the scientific community. And I'll bet the ATL will be more active than many believe. Just an opinion about the ATL but the hurricanes in groups is not my idea, but makes sense after seeing 2004-5.

It's going to be tough to make a prediction for any basin next year at this time. Just going to have sit back and wait until February.