ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

Not quite as the 1997 one yet.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 17h17 hours ago
2015 now lagging slightly behind 1997 in Nino 3.4. Current weekly SST anomaly is 2.4C vs. 2.6C for this week in 1997

One question here...Do the official El Nino readings only take account the Pacific Equatorial region?

Only the equatorial region.

[Dean_175]

Not quite as the 1997 one yet.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 17h17 hours ago
2015 now lagging slightly behind 1997 in Nino 3.4. Current weekly SST anomaly is 2.4C vs. 2.6C for this week in 1997

One question here...Do the official El Nino readings only take account the Pacific Equatorial region?
To my untrained eye it appears there is more oceanic in the area to the north than in 1997-1998. Would seem to make this event more intense. Plus Joe Bastardi was saying that this is the warmest ocean temps in the satellite era.
Please explain anyone.

The Nino regions extend from 5N to 5S. The warm SSTs seen north of the equatorial region are not directly due to El Nino- but are indirectly linked. The warm pattern here projects onto a positive PDO pattern- and is a manifestation of the positive PDO values we have seen since 2014. ENSO affects the year- to year variation in the PDO, but the PDO is not ENSO.

Kelvin waves are trapped along the equator and their direct influence only extends a few degrees poleward of it in either direction. And as a result- the band of warming that occurs during El Nino is mainly limited to near the equator.

[cycloneye]

Speaking of the PDO,the latest data from September is more warmer (+1.94) than the August one (+1.56)

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Ntxw]

That's a surprise, I was thinking a drop..not a lot but trend instead it went up.

[Hurricaneman]

What does a +PDO do to trough ridge positions during hurricane season on average and also in winter

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

+PDO from my understanding promotes +PNA or ridging in the west and troughs in the east.

It also correlates well to active EPAC seasons, perhaps Carib shear?

[Yellow Evan]

perhaps Carib shear?

Pretty sure warm water off of South America promotes Carib shear. Warmer water=more upward motion off of SA=more shear in the Carib.

[gigabite]

The Mid-October plume update is up and look at the crash by June,July and August.

http://i.imgur.com/Ymue6f7.gif



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

The rainfall in SW Florida looks more like 1998 than 1997.
Could this be an indication of a quick reversal from a warm ESNO to a cool one?

[NDG]

October of '97 was a fairly dry month for your area also. Rains for central and southern FL from El Nino pattern start coming more into play later in the Fall and into the winter months.

[gigabite]

Well for the past 6 months it looks more like 1998.

[Hurricaneman]

I have a list of hurricane US landfalls during +PDO years and even years without landfall since 1940

1980 Allen peak 190mph Landfall 115mph
2005 Wilma peak 185mph Landfall 120mph
2005 Rita peak 180mph landfall 115mph
2005 Katrina peak 175mph landfalls 90mph{Florida} 135mph {Louisiana}
1992 Andrew Peak 175mph Landfalls 165mph{Florida} 115mph {Louisiana}
1979 David peak 175mph Landfall 100mph
2004 Ivan peak 165mph Landfall 120mph
2003 Isabel peak 165mph Landfall 105mph
1989 Hugo peak 160mph Landfall 140mph
2004 Charley 150mph
2005 Dennis 150mph peak landfall 125mph
1995 Opal peak 150mph Landfall 115mph
2004 Frances peak 145mph Landfall 105mph
1985 Gloria peak 145mph Landfalls 105mph {North Carolina} 85mph {New York}
1947 Hurricane4 peak 145mph Landfalls 130mph {Florida} 110mph {Louisiana}
1947 Hurricane9 peak 105mph Landfalls 90mph {Florida} 105mph {South Carolina}
1984 Diana peak 135mph Landfall 100mph
1979 Frederic 135mph
1945 Hurricane9 135mph
1954 Hazel 130mph
1985 Elena peak 125mph Landfall 120mph
1957 Audrey 125mph
1941 Hurricane2 125mph
1985 Kate peak 120mph Landfall 100mph
2004 Jeanne 120mph
1996 Fran 120mph
1976 Belle peak 120mph Landfall 75mph
1954 Edna peak 120mph Landfall 110mph
1941 Hurricane5 peak 120mph Landfall 100mph
1996 Bertha peak 115mph Landfall 90mph
1983 Alicia 115mph
1954 Carol 115mph
1953 Florence peak 115mph Landfall 75mph
1945 Hurricane5 115mph
1942 Hurricane3 115mph
2014 Arthur 100mph
1945 hurricane1 peak 100mph Landfalls 75mph {Florida} 75mph {North Carolina}
1995 Erin 100mph
1940 Hurricane2 100mph
1940 Hurricane3 100mph
2007 Humberto 90mph
2003 Claudette 90mph
1985 Danny 90mph
1953 Barbara 90mph
1989 Jerry 85mph
1986 Bonnie 85mph
1985 Juan peak 85mph Landfall 75mph
1953 Hazel 85mph
1997 Danny 80mph
1989 Chantal 80mph
1988 Florence 80mph
1986 Charley 80mph
1983 Barry 80mph
1947 Hurricane3 80mph
1942 Hurricane2 80mph
2005 Cindy 75mph
2004 Gaston 75mph
1987 Floyd 75mph
1985 Bob 75mph
1979 Bob 75mph


+PDO years without hurricane landfalls
2006
1993{Emily just missed}
1990
1982
1981
1977
1958{Helene close call}

so its possible this year might end up with the 7 years that had no US landfall but that goes against the %s so I would watch for some late season action

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Darvince]

Of course, you must remember that a landfall on the US is only a factor we look at because it is very relevant to the American people. So while correlations may exist, they are more likely to lean towards a specific part of the US, or even more activity within the western Atlantic. Which this year, we have not seen (with the exception of Joaquin).

[NDG]

Well for the past 6 months it looks more like 1998.

Can you share the source where the chart comes from?

I thought you were talking about the month of October so far or at least Sep-Oct time frame.

Edit:
I went back into climate history for your area and this is what I found:

Yes, the summer of '97 was a much drier than average summer for your area compared to this year, and even compared to '98, but keep in mind that El Nino & its effects appeared much sooner this year than in '97. Summer of '97 had a total rainfall deficit of -12.4"
This year it helped that there was a semi-permanent subtropical jet trough over the GOM that helped enhanced convection in this area.
Summer of '98 was actually drier than normal during June, July & August with a total deficit for those 3 months of almost - 8.0"
Because of tropical activity in Sept '98 you guys had a surplus for that month of nearly + 3", and also because of Hurricane Mitch in Nov '98 you guys ended up with a surplus of + 4.5" for that month.

This is the difference during the late Fall into early Spring months between a strong El Nino year and a typical La Nina year:
Dec '97-March '98 you guys ended up with a surplus of around 8" during those months, a very wet period.

Dec '98-March '99 you guys ended up with a deficit of - 3.2"

[gigabite]

Can you share the source where the chart comes from?

I built the chart with data comes from South Florida Water Management. It is in an excel workbook I am using to study a rainfall algorithm.
I don't track the rain in rainfall years. Perihelion is New Years, and aphelion is 4th of July. My hypothesis involves gravity. 1998 was above average rainfall.
----I see what you are saying about the winter effect in 1997 & 1998. The April - October rain in 2015 is 10% over 1998, and 28% over 1997.
It seems that the consensus thinking would be that ESNO will continue, and Southwest Florida might have more rain, there for possibly above average annual rainfall.
November and December of both 1997, and 1998 were above average. October was down for both years. If the historical rain for either year holds for 2015 Naples
could be looking at about 16 more inches of this physical year.

___________________________
this is not a forecast

[Dean_175]

Dailies have been trailing upwards past few days- I wonder if we will see 2.5C on Mondays update. It has been at 2.4 last few weeks. Would make sense to increase a little to 2.5 or 2.6 before peak in November.

Guidance is showing another moderate to strong WWB next week in the east Pacific. Not sure how much warming could result, but either way- the wind anomalies averaged for the month should be very impressive as a whole- perhaps similar to October 1997.

Will be interesting to see how the ERSST monthly anomalies/ONI, ESOI, and precipitation/OLR patterns will compare.

[Ntxw]

Still think ONI will eventually surpass 2C, maybe next the next update but I'm confident it will the following and probably several trimonthlies.

[galaxy401]

With the records that Patricia is shattering that makes me wonder, are these type of storms only possible during an El Nino? Haiyan was during a non El Nino year but how about the EPAC? Most of the category fives there were in El Nino years. To add to that are strong El Ninos the only way for a Patricia-like storm to develop.

[LarryWx]

With the records that Patricia is shattering that makes me wonder, are these type of storms only possible during an El Nino? Haiyan was during a non El Nino year but how about the EPAC? Most of the category fives there were in El Nino years. To add to that are strong El Ninos the only way for a Patricia-like storm to develop.

Fwiw, 1959, a neutral ENSO season, had the only cat 5 on record to make landfall in the EPAC (measured winds of 160 mph) and it did it in a similar location as Patricia is projected to do:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Mexico_hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

With the records that Patricia is shattering that makes me wonder, are these type of storms only possible during an El Nino? Haiyan was during a non El Nino year but how about the EPAC? Most of the category fives there were in El Nino years. To add to that are strong El Ninos the only way for a Patricia-like storm to develop.

Fwiw, 1959, a neutral ENSO season, had the only cat 5 on record to make landfall in the EPAC (measured winds of 160 mph) and it did it in a similar location as Patricia is projected to do:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Mexico_hurricane

That won't survive re-analysis.

[Dean_175]

Nino3.4 up to 2.5 this week