It looks very alive presently with +3.0c temps at el nino 1-2 close to Southamerica.However,in el nino 3-4 areas,it is not as warm as in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific.And if you look at the subsurface,yes there are cool areas but they are not expanding to the degree of making the warm ENSO conditions go away rapidly.Let's see what will occur in the next 4-5 months and see how all transpires in terms of El Nino staying alive going into the summer or if it will start to fade and turns things Neutral when the 2007 hurricane season arrives.

















CFSv2 model:



All ENSO Models:

Have we ever seen an moderate el-nino rapidly change into an moderate la-nina. I'm not saying this is a possibility however, I'm just wondering if this has ever happend?

Given how rapidly the El Nino developed, I wouldn't think it to be out of the question.

It's not impossible that a rapid transistion from El Nino to La Nina may occur.However,the most probable thing to occur is the phase from El Nino to Neutral conditions.But time will tell what in reallity will happen in the next 4 to 5 months.

Rapid warm to cold phase transitions, both of which were of at least moderate strength, have occurred in the past. This chart of historical MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) values might help you out...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wo ... table.html

The rapid warm-to-cool transitions of significant strength that stood out to me were:
FEB to AUG 1973 (+1.544 to -1.684)
AUG 1987 to JUN 1988 (+1.911 to -1.182)
APR to NOV 1998 (+2.613 to -1.074)

Those are great examples and thank you that does help. Hopefully we'll see the el-nino stick around for the next 10 months or so. We could use another break this year also...

MEI values seem to be above normal the majority of the time from 2002 to now.

Looking at the data from that link it appears as though most el-nino/warm phase events were not short lived. Looking at the past decade it appears the shortest lived warm period was the 97-98 nino. However looking at the graphic that Luis posted we may want to see how long those cool pockets stay around and head east.

Not only that, there is a distinct transition from a higher strength and frequency of cold events to warm events around early 1976...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wo ... I/mei.html

Eventhough the Atlantic is in an warm cycle, it would appear that in that zone in the Pacific they are in a warm cycle as well.

Could someone please translate what this means?

Basically, the graphic shows that from the period 1950-1976 there were more and stronger "cold" events than "warm" events .... and since 1976 there have more and stronger "warm" events than "cold" events .... "cold" events being La Nina and "warm" events being El Nino .....

So does that mean more canes or not?

since the early 80s El Nino events have seemed to increase in frequency compared to La Nina events

1982-1983
1986-1988
1991-1992
1993
1994-1995
1997-1998
2002-2003
2004-2005

in the same period La Nina events
1983-1984
1984-1985
1988-1989
1995-1996
1998-2000
2000-2001

(some of the la nina events did briefly breakdown below La Nina event threshold only to increase above la nina thresholds a month or two later - something that does not happen with El Nino events)

1997-1998, a Strong El Nino faded into a Strong La Nina I believe.

as did 1982-83 into La Nina event of 1983-84 and 1984-85

That correlates well with the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Compared with the last week of December update,this 6th of January one looks somewhat less warm at el nino 1-2 where no +3.0c are found as the last update showed,when those +3.0c were at el nino 1-2 area.Let's continue to follow trends in the Pacific to see how the ENSO factor evolves as the months go by and Summer draws closer.

Yes that is correct... as far as I'm looking at. Pretty cool correlation you found there.

This relationship has been talked about since the the mid 90's.

....nathan, for what its worth, i recall grey, landsea, et al discussion of the 1997 el nino...in which they suggested that the rapidity of transition from warm to cold was somewhat proportional to the strength of the warm event....rich

Yes, is possible that 1998 could be the best example of a rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/old_sst/sst_9899_anim.shtml

I remember this and I remember Georges also...