ENSO Updates

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NDG
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10001 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:40 am

Kingarabian wrote:South Texas Storms called it. Lane has stunted the easterlies over the dateline and the CPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/pRpfIeU.png


The image has not updated in a couple of days, it might have weakened them some temporarily but easterlies are still across the equator, westerlies are well north of the equator.


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10002 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:20 am

Today's ENSO update will be:

Nino 3.4 down to +0.3C
Nino 4 down to +0.4C
Nino 3 down to +0.1C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.2C
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/27/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C / All areas are down

#10003 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:43 am

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update that has all the ENSO areas down.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/27/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C / All areas are down

#10004 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:44 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10005 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:00 pm

Dateline/CPAC centered WWB coming up on the GFS:

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10006 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:37 am

Today’s ENSO update brings Nino 3.4 down to +0.2C


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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 9/3/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

#10007 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:41 am

CPC text of the weekly update of 9/3/18 has Niño 3.4 going down to +0.2C.Niño 4 remained the same but Niño 1+2 and 3 are also down.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 9/3/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

#10008 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:47 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 9/3/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

#10009 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:57 am

The cooling of the Nino Regions especially Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 recently is a good indicator of the development uptick in the Atlantic Basin, it never fails that warm based central Pacific does not affect the Atlantic that much during the heart of the hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 9/3/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

#10010 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:09 pm

NDG wrote:The cooling of the Nino Regions especially Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 recently is a good indicator of the development uptick in the Atlantic Basin, it never fails that warm based central Pacific does not affect the Atlantic that much during the heart of the hurricane season.


Still seems that there's more unfavorable shear than normal over the GOM/Caribbean. Based on the models and what we're seeing from Gordon, these systems entering these regions are having/will be having a tough time to develop.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10011 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:18 pm

I noticed in this weekly report that the OHC is stable and sill solidly warm enough to support a weak El Nino later in the fall. By the way, the Eurosip called this quite well as it had a pause in the warming through August with a slow resumption of warming starting this month.


Edit: The newest Eurosip is calling for a peak in NDJ of +0.9 to +1.0 in Nino 3.4.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 9/3/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

#10012 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:The cooling of the Nino Regions especially Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 recently is a good indicator of the development uptick in the Atlantic Basin, it never fails that warm based central Pacific does not affect the Atlantic that much during the heart of the hurricane season.


Still seems that there's more unfavorable shear than normal over the GOM/Caribbean. Based on the models and what we're seeing from Gordon, these systems entering these regions are having/will be having a tough time to develop.


Conditions were not supposed to really improve until the second week of September.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10013 Postby StruThiO » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:16 pm

ONI for JJA is 0.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10014 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:55 pm

With all that is going on,I forgot to post the weekly CPC update of 9/10/18 but here it is.Niño 3.4 went up from +0.2C to +0.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10015 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:20 pm

El Nino buddy. What's going on? Are you going to do this or not? By far the biggest ENSO tease I've ever seen.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10016 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:03 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10017 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:20 pm

The lid on El Nino continue :uarrow:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10018 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:58 pm

2018 shows that a warm subsurface pool, as well as strong model support for one, does not guarantee an El Niño. While I am not ruling out El Niño being declared late this year, it's looking like it may not be declared until 2019. CFS and ECMWF appear to have been too warm with their predictions again, and ASO should definitely remain in the warm neutral range.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10019 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:2018 shows that a warm subsurface pool, as well as strong model support for one, does not guarantee an El Niño. While I am not ruling out El Niño being declared late this year, it's looking like it may not be declared until 2019. CFS and ECMWF appear to have been too warm with their predictions again, and ASO should definitely remain in the warm neutral range.



I wouldn't be surprised if nino never happens this go around.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10020 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:2018 shows that a warm subsurface pool, as well as strong model support for one, does not guarantee an El Niño. While I am not ruling out El Niño being declared late this year, it's looking like it may not be declared until 2019. CFS and ECMWF appear to have been too warm with their predictions again, and ASO should definitely remain in the warm neutral range.


The Eurosip even back in May was calling for warm neutral for ASO with El Nino not starting til the SON trimonth thanks to Oct's warming. So, delayed but not denied. With the current OHC remaining steady in the +0.80s, I still think we'll get El Nino.
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