ENSO Updates

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LarryWx
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10041 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:16 am

Ntxw wrote:El Nino has just about arrived. A bit late but came no less. By all figures next update on Monday should be 0.5C or greater. The winds, SOI all paint the picture. Given the seasonal tendencies and shifting climo it will be a steady climb until winter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/74/eb/zP41khKc_o.jpg


Indeed, it is. Nino 3.4 warmed from +0.3 to +0.6, which is the warmest week this year. Hello, El Niño, which is pretty much on schedule.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10042 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:27 am

:uarrow: Yeap, today's update will be +0.6C across the board from Nino 3 to Nino 3.4 to Nino 4
Nino 1+2 goes down to -0.3C
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/1/18 up to +0.6C at Niño 3.4 / 3 and 4 / Niño 1+2 at -0.3C

#10043 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:51 am

Text of CPC weekly update of October 1 that has three of the areas at +0.6C and Niño 1+2 in the cold at -0.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/1/18 up to +0.6C at Niño 3.4 / 3 and 4 / Niño 1+2 at -0.3C

#10044 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:57 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10045 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:El Nino has just about arrived. A bit late but came no less. By all figures next update on Monday should be 0.5C or greater. The winds, SOI all paint the picture. Given the seasonal tendencies and shifting climo it will be a steady climb until winter.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/74/eb/zP41khKc_o.jpg[url]


About time! Do we have enough months for the event to count towards 2018?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10046 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:24 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:El Nino has just about arrived. A bit late but came no less. By all figures next update on Monday should be 0.5C or greater. The winds, SOI all paint the picture. Given the seasonal tendencies and shifting climo it will be a steady climb until winter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/74/eb/zP41khKc_o.jpg


Indeed, it is. Nino 3.4 warmed from +0.3 to +0.6, which is the warmest week this year. Hello, El Niño, which is pretty much on schedule.


Hey Larry, it looks like EUROSIP is on the verge of nailing its late spring/early summer forecast.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/1/18 up to +0.6C at Niño 3.4 / 3 and 4 / Niño 1+2 at -0.3C

#10047 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:08 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/1/18 up to +0.6C at Niño 3.4 / 3 and 4 / Niño 1+2 at -0.3C

#10048 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:17 pm



Yeah makes sense. Start monitoring the subsurface anomalies in January. If we don't see a strong up welling Kelvin wave then we could be looking at back to back warm-neutral/El Nino events.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10049 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:44 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:El Nino has just about arrived. A bit late but came no less. By all figures next update on Monday should be 0.5C or greater. The winds, SOI all paint the picture. Given the seasonal tendencies and shifting climo it will be a steady climb until winter.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/74/eb/zP41khKc_o.jpg[url]


About time! Do we have enough months for the event to count towards 2018?


Plenty, ASO probably won't make it but if it rises steadily the average for SON could especially if the two later months really goes to town.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10050 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:57 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10051 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:29 pm

LarryWx wrote:Sep SOI comes in at El Niño favoring sub -8. I’m now giving 90% chance for ONI based El Niño.

Tidbits 3.4 back down to near +0.43 after being near +0.67 just 2 days ago.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.png

However, the drop is no surprise after the rapid 0.7 rise the prior 7 days. It is heading down further but this drop is very likely just a temporary correction of sorts related to the day to day noise/volatility. I fully expect a resumption of warming later this week.


Tidbits 3.4 had cooled back to +0.4 yesterday but it is now resuming warming.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10052 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:35 pm

Little doubt now on the El Nino. The weak "modoki" look prior has shifted/overspread the rest of the basin. Warm waters have sloshed east with a flatter thermocline.

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10053 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:Little doubt now on the El Nino. The weak "modoki" look prior has shifted/overspread the rest of the basin. Warm waters have sloshed east with a flatter thermocline.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/9d/bc/AC2401zf_o.gif[/ur]

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/a4/b4/ZqemfmWE_o.jpg[/rl]


Doesn't look Modoki at all anymore.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10054 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:12 am

Another strong uptick coming on Monday. 1C+ can be seen throughout the basins. The coolest areas is limited to around 130W but even there it is above 0.5C. 180W is expansive with the areas of 1C+. If this trend continues we could be seeing 1C weekly readings by the end of the month.

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10055 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:17 am

Ntxw wrote:Another strong uptick coming on Monday. 1C+ can be seen throughout the basins. The coolest areas is limited to around 130W but even there it is above 0.5C. 180W is expansive with the areas of 1C+. If this trend continues we could be seeing 1C weekly readings by the end of the month.

https://images2.imgbox.com/82/58/4anfKGZx_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/37/2e/boWbSocH_o.gif


Ntxw, I guess since it may be a basin elniño, is it winter cancel already? :grr: I've heard basinwide isn't good at all.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10056 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Another strong uptick coming on Monday. 1C+ can be seen throughout the basins. The coolest areas is limited to around 130W but even there it is above 0.5C. 180W is expansive with the areas of 1C+. If this trend continues we could be seeing 1C weekly readings by the end of the month.

https://images2.imgbox.com/82/58/4anfKGZx_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/37/2e/boWbSocH_o.gif


Ntxw, I guess since it may be a basin elniño, is it winter cancel already? :grr: I've heard basinwide isn't good at all.


Too much emphasis is put on what kind of El Nino. While there are different flavors and indeed some do behave differently, strength also matters. Not only that El Nino can shift from one region to the next and back again at varying times of their life cycles. If you are worried about winter, I would first look at the North Pacific pattern and see how it behaves along with the Arctic.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10057 Postby StruThiO » Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:52 am

Another 0.1C trimonthly
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10058 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:20 am

Will be +0.7C this week
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10059 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:Will be +0.7C this week

Ntxw, do you or anyone else have the maps for all the regions besides 3.4 to find out what those are?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/8/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.7C

#10060 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:48 am

Here is the text of the weekly update by CPC that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.7C.The other areas are also at +0.8C and +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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