ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114882
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10101 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:11 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4211
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#10102 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:42 pm

1 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9840
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10103 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:49 am



His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.
5 likes   
Image

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10109
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#10104 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:


His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.


I have not become of MJ Ventrice after this season, he seems to like to go against the tide :wink:
2 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 293
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#10105 Postby StruThiO » Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:10 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10109
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#10106 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:35 am

On today's update:

Nino 3.4 down to +0.7C
Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
Nino 1+2 down to +0.6C
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14460
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ENSO Updates

#10107 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:10 am

The balance between Webb and Ventrice is interesting. What happens is often somewhere in the middle, which I think indicates a weak to moderate el nino over winter, at least.
5 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1469
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ENSO Updates

#10108 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:41 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:


His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.


I have not become of MJ Ventrice after this season, he seems to like to go against the tide :wink:



I think I've been a little skeptical after last season. :P
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114882
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10109 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:54 am

NDG wrote:On today's update:

Nino 3.4 down to +0.7C
Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
Nino 1+2 down to +0.6C


Text of update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9840
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10110 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:29 pm

StruThiO wrote:Woah!

[url]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1063893775163031559[url]


Holy WWB... That's one of the largest WWB's i've seen on this Ryan Maue graphic. If it materializes, then we wont see a cold pool form through January, and if we get the seasonal WWB during February, there will be talks about a double dip warm-Enso/El Nino.
3 likes   
Image

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 16676
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#10111 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:01 pm

Here it comes.

Image
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 16676
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#10112 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:50 am

More wild jumping by Nino 3.4 going to 1.3C this week.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9840
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10113 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:27 pm

WWB is verifying on the GFS Hovmoller

Image

This will at least maintain the warm OHC through January if not warm it up further.
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114882
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10114 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:07 pm

Text of CPC update of 11/26/18.Looks like a a broadbase El Niño instead of modoki if this keeps up.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Hunabku
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 1:50 am

Re: ENSO Updates

#10115 Postby Hunabku » Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:04 am

Hi fellow ENSO geeks 8-) Our current WWB isn't turning out as strong as once thought. Seems the WWB event back in late September - early October had more punch, particularly related to creating west-pacific originated kelvin wave and hence contributing to the current subsurface warming that we are seeing?

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9840
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10116 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:24 pm

Hunabku wrote:Hi fellow ENSO geeks 8-) Our current WWB isn't turning out as strong as once thought. Seems the WWB event back in late September - early October had more punch, particularly related to creating west-pacific originated kelvin wave and hence contributing to the current subsurface warming that we are seeing?

[url]https://ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.orig.eqtr.png[url]


Certainly not as strong as advertised by the models last week. But there should be enough westerly winds to keep the subsurface sufficiently warm in the short term.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114882
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10117 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:20 am

Niño 3.4 down from +1.3C last week to +1.2C this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 16676
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#10118 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:59 pm

ONI for SON came in at +0.7C. Since 1950 (current ONI starts then) there has never been a year with SON at least 0.7C that did not get the full 5 months. Pretty much locked this will be.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10109
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#10119 Postby NDG » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:18 am

This map shows it all, El Nino is here, for those that doubted it :wink:

The biggest news from the current pattern is the much needed rainy pattern across CA since about Thanksgiving, which the Nat'l News media has not pass on the news to the rest of the country, it makes you wonder why.

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9840
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10120 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:12 pm

Strong trade burst over the dateline coming up on the GFS:
Image

Let's see if it will trigger an up-welling Kelvin wave.
1 likes   
Image


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests