ENSO Updates

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10121 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:23 am

CPC weekly update of 12/10/18 has Niño 3.4 down from +1.2C last week to +1.0C this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10122 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:45 pm

Interesting that the main sub-surface graphic we use is cooler than the actual data from the buoys:

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In the above graphic, the buoys are ahead by 6-7 days but it has been this way for about a month.
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Re: ENSO: CPC December 12/13/18 update: No upgrade to El Niño Warning

#10123 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:09 am

Still CPC has El Niño Watch in the December update:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 December 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during November, despite the continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly SST indices for all four Niño regions were near +1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened slightly [Fig. 3], but above-average temperatures persist at depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, the atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. For the month as a whole, atmospheric convection remained close to average near the Date Line and suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, the low-level and upper level winds were mostly near average across the equatorial Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, while the traditional SOI was near zero. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through the winter and spring [Fig. 6]. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and spring (~60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO: CPC December 12/13/18 update: Still at El Niño Watch / No upgrade to El Niño Warning

#10124 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:26 pm

:uarrow: We've been watching this train of downwelling Kelvin waves since early Spring. To get +0.5C anomalies across the Nino regions, there has/had to be atmospheric coupling in the first place. All this warmth at the sub-surface and surface since the late summer is not all related to MJO activity...
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Re: ENSO: CPC December 12/13/18 update: Still at El Niño Watch / No upgrade to El Niño Advisory

#10125 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:37 pm

All you need to know about why CPC did not declared El Niño Advisory in the December update.Extracts below:

While warmer-than-average surface waters in the equatorial Pacific are an essential element of El Niño, the atmospheric response is just as critical. In the case of El Niño, those warmer-than-average waters in the central and eastern Pacific warm the air above them, leading to more rising air, clouds, and rain. So much more rising air, in fact, that the entire circulation over the equatorial Pacific—the Walker circulation—is changed.

The average Walker circulation is driven by strong rising air over Indonesia, leading to west-to-east winds aloft, sinking air over the Eastern Pacific, and returning east-to-west winds (the trade winds) near the surface of the Pacific. More rising air in the central and eastern Pacific weakens this circulation, slowing the trade winds along the surface. Like any good partner, the slower trade winds help to sustain El Niño, keeping the surface waters warmer.


A mysterious stranger
What’s distracting the atmosphere from settling down with the ocean into El Niño? Perhaps it’s a subseasonal dalliance! (Yep, I’m going to torture this metaphor. Buckle in.) We’ve covered The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) a few times before in this space. The MJO is a major area of rising air, clouds and rain (“enhanced convection,” if you’re feeling frisky) that moves eastward along the equator, affecting global atmospheric circulation. It can circle the globe in about 4­–6 weeks. It’s also a great cook, and loves long walks on the beach.


The MJO has been active over the past few months, circling the Earth a few times since September. When the MJO-related area of enhanced convection moves from Africa to the Indian Ocean and through the Pacific, it changes the winds and cloud patterns in the areas we monitor for El Niño conditions. The MJO is a subseasonal pattern, meaning it affects conditions on timescales of a few weeks. Recently, most of the changes we’ve observed in the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific look MJO-related, changing from week to week.


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... hip-advice
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Re: ENSO: CPC December 12/13/18 update: Still at El Niño Watch / No upgrade to El Niño Advisory

#10126 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:20 am

Ventrice throws a curveball about El Niño comming.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1073958876624621569


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Re: ENSO: CPC December 12/13/18 update: Still at El Niño Watch / No upgrade to El Niño Advisory

#10127 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:All you need to know about why CPC did not declared El Niño Advisory in the December update.Extracts below:


This may end up like what happened in 2014. The CPC was holding it off all the way to the end when they had to call it in March 5, 2015 when 5 trimonthly was reach but by that time it was too late and already happened and then a Super El Nino ensued which kind of saved grace a bit for the call. But had the bigger Nino not occurred the criticism might have been more pronounced.

I do agree with them the system needs to be updated to reflect both ocean and atmosphere versus a simple index such as Ocean temperature anomaly, however that isn't the criteria they set.
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Re: ENSO: CPC December 12/13/18 update: Still at El Niño Watch / No upgrade to El Niño Advisory

#10128 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cycloneye wrote:All you need to know about why CPC did not declared El Niño Advisory in the December update.Extracts below:


This may end up like what happened in 2014. The CPC was holding it off all the way to the end when they had to call it in March 5, 2015 when 5 trimonthly was reach but by that time it was too late and already happened and then a Super El Nino ensued which kind of saved grace a bit for the call. But had the bigger Nino not occurred the criticism might have been more pronounced.

I do agree with them the system needs to be updated to reflect both ocean and atmosphere versus a simple index such as Ocean temperature anomaly, however that isn't the criteria they set.


It seems that they gauge atmospheric coupling based on forecaster preference. They say that the SOI hasn't been firmly negative, but its been noted that the SOI tanks only after an El Nino emerges.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10129 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:36 pm

It's pretty remarkable that we haven't seen an upwelling Kelvin wave in the WPAC since January 2018.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10130 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:26 pm

The big question for ENSO in 2019 is whether we will get a significant upwelling kelvin wave or not. If we do, we could see the El Niño dissipate and transition to ENSO-neutral by next summer. However, it is also possible, if not more likely, that the El Niño persists or strengthens. I am also surprised that CPC has not officially called El Niño yet. It has been very El Niño like in terms of weather here in NC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10131 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:04 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10132 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:08 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10133 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:31 pm



Agreed it could go both ways. But on the buoys all I'm seeing is spotty -0.5C and -1.0C anoms which we've seen a couple of these since late summer. That's not really a true cold pool that will stick around when the zonal winds shift west the next time around. Especially when we compare it to cold pools that proceeded past El Nino (2002, 2006, 2009, 2015). These cooler anomalies end up not showing up on the CPC Depth 20C isotherm Hovmoller.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10134 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:06 pm

Hi everyone. Do we have any enso updates today yet?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10135 Postby tpr1967 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:13 pm

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Hi everyone. Do we have any enso updates today yet?



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10136 Postby NDG » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:36 pm

So far this trimonthly period Nino 3.4 is averaging +0.9C and to me the Atmosphere is already more in an El Nino state than not, what happened to the idea that not all El Ninos are not created equal, especially weak ones.
But who cares, I'm just an amateur :D
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10137 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:58 am

Today's ENSO update from BOM clearly describes how the atmosphere is not in an El Nino state right now. I'm not sure how this can be interpreted differently:

The term El Niño–Southern Oscillation refers to the interaction between the tropical Pacific Ocean ("El Niño") and its overlying atmosphere ("Southern Oscillation"), which together produce a global influence on weather and climate. While tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently at El Niño levels, atmospheric indicators—such as cloudiness, pressure patterns, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds—have generally remained neutral.

This means that the ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other, known as coupling. It is this coupling that defines and sustains an ENSO event, and results in widespread shifts in global weather and climate.


The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 16 December was +7.9, and the 90-day SOI was +1.0. The SOI has remained within the neutral ENSO range since early September, when it briefly reached El Niño thresholds.

The lack of a clear, sustained El Niño signal in the SOI is one indicator (see also Trade Winds and Cloudiness) that the atmospheric circulation required to signal the start of El Niño has not established.

Image


Trade winds for the five days ending 16 December were mixed, with weaker than average trades across the far western equatorial Pacific, but stronger than average trades near the Date Line. Weaker-than-average trade winds have appeared at times during the past month to two months, but have been associated with transient events, such as pulses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation.

The lack, so far, of this sustained pattern is one of the indicators that the atmosphere and ocean are not yet reinforcing each other, which is required for an event to become firmly established.

Image


Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated around average since late October, whereas typically it would be well above average during El Niño.

In addition to cloudiness near the Date Line, the broader cloud pattern across the tropical Pacific is more typical of a neutral ENSO state. Again, this indicates that coupling of the ocean and atmosphere has yet to occur.

Image


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10138 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:58 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10139 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:41 pm

WAcyclone wrote:Today's ENSO update from BOM clearly describes how the atmosphere is not in an El Nino state right now. I'm not sure how this can be interpreted differently:

The term El Niño–Southern Oscillation refers to the interaction between the tropical Pacific Ocean ("El Niño") and its overlying atmosphere ("Southern Oscillation"), which together produce a global influence on weather and climate. While tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently at El Niño levels, atmospheric indicators—such as cloudiness, pressure patterns, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds—have generally remained neutral.

This means that the ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other, known as coupling. It is this coupling that defines and sustains an ENSO event, and results in widespread shifts in global weather and climate.


The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 16 December was +7.9, and the 90-day SOI was +1.0. The SOI has remained within the neutral ENSO range since early September, when it briefly reached El Niño thresholds.

The lack of a clear, sustained El Niño signal in the SOI is one indicator (see also Trade Winds and Cloudiness) that the atmospheric circulation required to signal the start of El Niño has not established.

https://i.imgur.com/OJArTlF.ng


Trade winds for the five days ending 16 December were mixed, with weaker than average trades across the far western equatorial Pacific, but stronger than average trades near the Date Line. Weaker-than-average trade winds have appeared at times during the past month to two months, but have been associated with transient events, such as pulses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation.

The lack, so far, of this sustained pattern is one of the indicators that the atmosphere and ocean are not yet reinforcing each other, which is required for an event to become firmly established.

https://i.imgur.com/1kEQ1ZE.ng


Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated around average since late October, whereas typically it would be well above average during El Niño.

In addition to cloudiness near the Date Line, the broader cloud pattern across the tropical Pacific is more typical of a neutral ENSO state. Again, this indicates that coupling of the ocean and atmosphere has yet to occur.

https://i.imgur.com/KH5vC9E.ng



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


Looks like they're also basing their reasoning primarily around the SOI. The SOI can be very noisy and tricky to be used as an atmospheric indicator IMO. The amount of warmth since the beginning of the year at the sub surface and the Nino regions warming since September should be enough for an El Nino declaration. Because there had/has to be atmospheric cooperation to get multiple downwelling Kelvin waves in the first place, and there has to be some continued atmospheric coupling since the warm anomalies are reaching the surface.

While surely there is a lot more El Nino years that had the SOI more negative during this time period, there are some observed El Nino years that had smilar SOI values with 2018.

During 2009's El Nino, between June and November, the monthly SOI average was around -3.75.

For 2018, between June and November, the SOI monthly average is nearly -3.00.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10140 Postby vortextracker » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:27 am

JMA usually is correct in analysis with enso
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produc ... tlook.html
Last Updated: 10 December 2018 Next update will be on 10 January 2019

Sure its 11 days old, but that is nothing in really in the big picture.
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