ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10141 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:40 pm

Pretty strong WWB event going on over the WPAC with below average trades extending to the dateline:
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Strong possibility that this triggers another downwelling Kelvin wave in the WPAC.

Looks like average to above average trades will continue to run the show over the CPAC/EPAC for the next week and will likely keep the Nino regions from warming up too much.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10142 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:43 pm

vortextracker wrote:JMA usually is correct in analysis with enso
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produc ... tlook.html
Last Updated: 10 December 2018 Next update will be on 10 January 2019

Sure its 11 days old, but that is nothing in really in the big picture.


Thanks for sharing this. Well I can rest easy now since we have one official agency that gets it.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10143 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:46 pm

The SOI will tank considerably if this OLR forecast verifies:

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10144 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:51 pm

Look at how much the GFS amplifies the MJO in phases 6 and 7...
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Explains this massive and strong WWB event forecast for the WPAC, that also has been verifying:
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Euro doesn't show much amplification in phases 6 and 7 but its members have been trending towards the GFS:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10145 Postby NotSparta » Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Look at how much the GFS amplifies the MJO in phases 6 and 7...
https://i.imgur.com/Bw7Vx0N.gif

Explains this massive and strong WWB event forecast for the WPAC, that also has been verifying:
https://i.imgur.com/hp6cZMD.png

Euro doesn't show much amplification in phases 6 and 7 but its members have been trending towards the GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/bjMGni2.png


GFS may do well here, w/ EC MC bias
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10146 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:40 pm

GFS going off the rails here. This will probably be the strongest MJO event on record if it verifies.
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 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1077973076363620358


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10147 Postby NotSparta » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS going off the rails here. This will probably be the strongest MJO event on record if it verifies.
https://i.imgur.com/5iwwIzg.gif

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1077973076363620358


Probably won't be that high, but likely will be more amped than EC
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10148 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS going off the rails here. This will probably be the strongest MJO event on record if it verifies.
https://i.imgur.com/5iwwIzg.gif

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1077973076363620358


This may be similar to the crazy MJO in March 1997.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10149 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:15 am

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS going off the rails here. This will probably be the strongest MJO event on record if it verifies.
https://i.imgur.com/5iwwIzg.gif

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1077973076363620358


Probably won't be that high, but likely will be more amped than EC


It'll likely be the highest amplitude we've seen in these phases since early spring. The warm ENSO to cool ENSO transition that we normally see take place is going to be thrown off considerably if this even comes close to verifying.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10150 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:25 am

TyphoonNara wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS going off the rails here. This will probably be the strongest MJO event on record if it verifies.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/5iwwIzg.gif[url]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1077973076363620358[url]


This may be similar to the crazy MJO in March 1997.

[url]http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/199701.phase.90days.gif[url]


Yeah. Strong MJO events like these (1997, 2015, and early 2018) triggered very strong downwelling Kelvin waves that lead to warm ENSO or greater for the remainder of the year. I think if we a similar episode we'll see another strong downwelling Kelvin wave be triggered.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10151 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:28 am

Eric Webb does a great job explaining what's going on and why there's such a huge difference between the GFS and Euro:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1077604355166142466




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1077612446267990017


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10152 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:43 pm

Pretty interesting that the GFS has the MJO so robust, and a large downwelling kelvin wave is forecasted at 120E, but the SOI is still at almost +10 which is solidly in Nina range. It looks like some mixed signals going into 2019, It all depends if everything falls in line and we get a decent Nino, or if everything falls apart and we go back to neutral. This is just my amateur opinion though, for all I know we end up with a super Nina next winter :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10153 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:58 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Pretty interesting that the GFS has the MJO so robust, and a large downwelling kelvin wave is forecasted at 120E, but the SOI is still at almost +10 which is solidly in Nina range. It looks like some mixed signals going into 2019, It all depends if everything falls in line and we get a decent Nino, or if everything falls apart and we go back to neutral. This is just my amateur opinion though, for all I know we end up with a super Nina next winter :lol:


SOI has a lot of lag. GFS if it's going to verify doesn't really raise the pressures over Darwin and drop the pressure over Tahiti until the first week of January.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10154 Postby tolakram » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:59 pm

I'm getting ... not upset, but mildly annoyed at the same old twitter sources cherry picking the data. So far we have a continued weak el nino and a stuck record of ... look at this, if this verifies look out! Has any of these look out's verified yet? :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10155 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:52 am

tolakram wrote:I'm getting ... not upset, but mildly annoyed at the same old twitter sources cherry picking the data. So far we have a continued weak el nino and a stuck record of ... look at this, if this verifies look out! Has any of these look out's verified yet? :lol:


I agree that any proclamations need to be tapered down until proven other wise. To their defense, there's a lot of evidence and proof that if the MJO reaches the high amplification in the areas that the GFS is showing, a strong downwelling Kelvin wave is triggered. Seen this happen in 1997, 2014, 2015, and 2018.

Oceanic heat content is half of ENSO. Now of course as we learned this year, you can have all the warmth at the subsurface but the upper level winds have to couple and allow the warm anomalies to surface.

So if such a situation happens again this year, we should be at continued El Nino watch but Atlantic hurricane numbers should remain untouched until an El Nino (if any!) is verified.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10156 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:42 am

This is getting serious per Ventrice.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078661008053452802


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10157 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is getting serious per Ventrice.

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078661008053452802[url]


Yes, and it's even more impressive because it's not anomalies, this graphic shows very strong RAW westerlies over the WPac. Westerly winds have completely taken over the the basin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10158 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:22 pm

My thinking is El Niño continues to strengthen a little to maybe a moderate one and by April or May the change to neutral conditions, similar to 2005 where the ENSO might go a little negative in time for hurricane season, but do hope im wrong as that could be a dangerous setup
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10159 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:44 am

Hurricaneman wrote:My thinking is El Niño continues to strengthen a little to maybe a moderate one and by April or May the change to neutral conditions, similar to 2005 where the ENSO might go a little negative in time for hurricane season, but do hope im wrong as that could be a dangerous setup


Strength wise this is pretty much it for this current El Nino. It'll remain weak/borderline moderate with whatever OHC that's available between 170E-100W. Around late January/early February we'll be monitoring the area between 140E-180E for signs of a new downwelling Kelvin wave that may cause an El Nino that may affect the hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10160 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:57 am

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