ENSO Updates

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10161 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:02 am


Looks like a new WWB after the current one east of the date line, will most likely strengthen the El Niño
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10162 Postby Pressure » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:08 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif very telling that the El Niño may have the atmosphere slowly falling into place, but the element itself lacking
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10163 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:28 pm

StruThiO wrote:[url]https://i.imgur.com/WOKLwj5.gif[url]


GFS surely is kicking off 2019 with a very strong WWB centered on the date line:
Image

GFS has backed off its crazy amplification that it was previously showing, but this WWB near the dateline is the result of the GFS trying to park the MJO in phase 7. There's also better agreement with the GFS and Euro in their MJO forecasts.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10164 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:04 am

Yes,the Caribbean being dry is a part of El Niño effects.

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1080310003490279425


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10165 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:10 pm

Latest subsurface analysis shows that there are some early hints that a new downwelling Kelvin wave has been triggered. Between 130E-160E warm anomalies have returned and expanded since December 24th.

Image

This likely due to the large December 15-30 WWB in the WPAC. Now a strong WWB forecast (and verifying) over the CPAC and EPAC will likely strengthen and expand the present warm anomalies at the subsurface or trigger ANOTHER downwelling Kelvin wave.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10166 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:13 pm

:uarrow:
Very impressive WWB going on across the Pacific right now. Some raw westerlies occurring across portions of the CPAC.

Chances for a double-barrel El Nino look to be increasing.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10167 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:55 pm

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow:
Very impressive WWB going on across the Pacific right now. Some raw westerlies occurring across portions of the CPAC.

Chances for a double-barrel El Nino look to be increasing.


At the very least, chances for a cold neutral ENSO or La Nina are taking a significant hit.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10168 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:17 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10169 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:28 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10170 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:14 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10171 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1081368787566264320[url]


 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1081541869367058433


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10172 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:56 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10173 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:52 am

Weekly update of 1/7/19 has Niño 3.4 at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10174 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:37 pm

WWB continues:

Image

Interestingly the GFS and Euro both swing the MJO back into phases 6 and 7. Something to watch for, because the longer the MJO sticks in phases 6-7-8, the harder it is to get a La Nina or flip ENSO to cool.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10175 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:52 pm

here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10176 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:04 pm

StruThiO wrote:here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736



What kind of effect might that be?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10177 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:29 am

AnnularCane wrote:
StruThiO wrote:here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736



What kind of effect might that be?


Possibly a failed El Niño or barely an El Niño and could cause a weaker EPAC season and possibly a more favorable environment for the 2019 hurricane season but this could change and needs to be watched
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10178 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:37 am

StruThiO wrote:here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736


This past hurricane season, didnt the PMM crash and become nearly negative only for the EPAC to go completely bonkers and produce a record season?

At the same time, wasnt the PMM very positive in early 2018 and was supposed to help a moderate El Nino develop for the 2018 hurricane season?

Maybe the PMM is a product of ENSO. Similar to how a La Nina can spur a cool PDO era, and an El Nino can trigger a warm PDO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10179 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736


This past hurricane season, didnt the PMM crash and become nearly negative only for the EPAC to go completely bonkers and produce a record season?

At the same time, wasnt the PMM very positive in early 2018 and was supposed to help a moderate El Nino develop for the 2018 hurricane season?

Maybe the PMM is a product of ENSO. Similar to how a La Nina can spur a cool PDO era, and an El Nino can trigger a warm PDO.


It did crash briefly, but the feature was so transient that the mean PMM for July was still positive. The PMM rose afterwards, which is what allowed the record season along w/ anomalously weak trades.

Yes, but the Niño hadn't developed by summer, where a +PMM hurts El Niño rather than helps.

The PMM is related to ENSO, yes. +PMM tends to precede El Niño, & vice versa. it's mostly based on how the PMM modulates trade winds, & such.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update shortly - Will they declare officially El Niño?

#10180 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:25 am

CPC January update shortly.Will El Niño be declared?
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