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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10181 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:06 am

CPC January update did not has the El Niño Advisory. Now we wait for the Febuary update that will be up on the 14th.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 January 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Niño indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2°C in the Niño-1+2 region and near +0.7°C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also weakened [Fig. 3], but above-average temperatures continued at depth across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. Equatorial convection was generally enhanced west of the Date Line and suppressed east of the Date Line, while anomalies were weak or near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level winds were near average, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. The traditional Southern Oscillation index was positive, while the equatorial Southern Oscillation index was slightly negative. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter and early spring tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Niño conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10182 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:31 am

Interesting how the El Niño probability is less than 50% by JJA. I am growing more skeptical of the 2019 continued El Niño idea. Until the SPB has passed, we won't have an idea of how ENSO will evolve during summer and fall 2019.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10183 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:33 am

cycloneye wrote:CPC January update did not has the El Niño Advisory. Now we wait for the Febuary update that will be up on the 14th.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 January 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Niño indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2°C in the Niño-1+2 region and near +0.7°C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also weakened [Fig. 3], but above-average temperatures continued at depth across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. Equatorial convection was generally enhanced west of the Date Line and suppressed east of the Date Line, while anomalies were weak or near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level winds were near average, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. The traditional Southern Oscillation index was positive, while the equatorial Southern Oscillation index was slightly negative. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter and early spring tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Niño conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

https://i.imgur.com/lUY2CbW.png


Since it's January, guessing the winter goes w/o a Niño declaration. Guess it'll be a wait until next year
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10184 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:33 am

Here is the twit from CPC. If it forms it will be a Weak one.

 https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1083363628517076992



#ElNino is expected to form and continue through boreal Spring 2019 (~65% chance). However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10185 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:20 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10186 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:26 am

This time there is no ENSO Blog post as they normally do to discuss the monthly updates because of the shutdown. :grr:

https://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10189 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:02 am

This was a true WWB over the dateline and one of the strongest for the region when using raw winds. It's likely to be a deterrent to cold ENSO in 2019. It's too bad TAO buoy data is not available during shutdown.

In all likeliness despite the talk of coupling, not coupling, the CPC will end up like in 2014-2015 where in March they had no choice to but declare that the Nino happened despite never really liking the fact due to their 5 trimonthly definition/standard. This will be a good follow up test to see if lessons have been learned. Weeklies still reflect Nino values going into mid January. If February follows up on it the hand my be forced.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC January update= No El Niño declaration / El Niño Watch continues

#10190 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:54 pm

GFS has the MJO coming out of the circle and directly places it in phases 6 and 7. Euro places the MJO in phase 5 and then into phase 6. So a blend of the two means the MJO will be in phase 6 in about a week or two. This will favor rising motion over the MC that may or may not extend to Tahiti and the SOI will probably raise in response. This will of course will make the CPC hesitant again to declare an El Nino in February, DESPITE the likelihood that the MJO will probably be entering phase 7 around and another WWB starting.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10191 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:25 pm

Trade burst forecast over the dateline since rising motion will return over the Indian ocean soon.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10192 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Trade burst forecast over the dateline since rising motion will return over the Indian ocean soon.

https://i.imgur.com/9jDTWiO.png


Man, this ENSO event is so confusing. I wish we still had the subsfc buoys page up, would be nice to see trends there.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10193 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:37 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Trade burst forecast over the dateline since rising motion will return over the Indian ocean soon.

https://i.imgur.com/9jDTWiO.png


Man, this ENSO event is so confusing. I wish we still had the subsfc buoys page up, would be nice to see trends there.


It's almost like last year and the years prior. Especially with the GFS swinging the MJO back into phases 7 and 8 by the end of Janaury.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10194 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Trade burst forecast over the dateline since rising motion will return over the Indian ocean soon.

https://i.imgur.com/9jDTWiO.png


Man, this ENSO event is so confusing. I wish we still had the subsfc buoys page up, would be nice to see trends there.


It's almost like last year and the years prior. Especially with the GFS swinging the MJO back into phases 7 and 8 by the end of Janaury.


I'm interested in what happens in 2019. An actual +ENSO event? Another Niño try but miss? Or just backing off from +ENSO? It's hard to tell. Won't know for a while, but I am leaning towards +ENSO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10195 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:23 am

Ouch!!! Today's update will show Nino 3.4 cooling down to +0.4 C, Nino 4 also cooling down to +0.6 C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10196 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:18 am

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update of 1/14/19.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update of 1/14/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#10197 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:55 am

NDG wrote:Ouch!!! Today's update will show Nino 3.4 cooling down to +0.4 C, Nino 4 also cooling down to +0.6 C


Sorry for the stupid question but without TAO data, how do we know that these numbers are accurate?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update of 1/14/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#10198 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:58 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NDG wrote:Ouch!!! Today's update will show Nino 3.4 cooling down to +0.4 C, Nino 4 also cooling down to +0.6 C


Sorry for the stupid question but without TAO data, how do we know that these numbers are accurate?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Ask that question to the CPC, I have no idea 8-)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10199 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:45 pm

NDG wrote:Ouch!!! Today's update will show Nino 3.4 cooling down to +0.4 C, Nino 4 also cooling down to +0.6 C


We'll probably be near +0.5C for the next few weeks, especially since the MJO will be near or over the MC.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update of 1/14/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#10200 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:46 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NDG wrote:Ouch!!! Today's update will show Nino 3.4 cooling down to +0.4 C, Nino 4 also cooling down to +0.6 C


Sorry for the stupid question but without TAO data, how do we know that these numbers are accurate?


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The Buoys technically are still online, but the servers displaying their data have been turned off. Maybe they still have access to the raw data files.
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