ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 1/28/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#10221 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:34 pm

I think we could see another WWB fairly soon. GFS and Euro continue to show a huge area of -VP200 anomalies sitting near the dateline @ the equator and slowly move those anomalies over the CPAC.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 1/28/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#10222 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:58 pm

ONI has updated for OND at +0.9C. Since 1950, every OND with 0.9C or greater has achieved officially an El Nino (hard not to because the fall-off is still enough). It looks to me by March the CPC, much like in 2014-2015, will have no choice but to declare it so after the fact by their metrics. You can already eyeball NDJ as 0.7C or so and DJF as possibly 0.6C or 0.5C exrapolating. 2014-15 peaked even lower and got it.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10223 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:24 pm

Euro and the CFS now show the MJO going into phase 8.
Probably why the CFS is showing a pretty substantial WWB over the dateline. Don't quite believe it just yet.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10224 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:49 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 1/28/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#10225 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:49 pm

:uarrow: Yup.

Heading into mid February:

GFS continues to be weird and has the MJO greatly amplifying in phase 7.
CFS gets the MJO into phase 8.
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Euro gets the MJO into phase 8 and amplifies it much more now.
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The GFS solution if it verifies means there's a great chance of a WWB over the WPAC and generating another downwelling Kelvin wave. The CFS and Euro solutions if they were to verify means a WWB over the dateline or closer to the CPAC which would strengthen the warm pool and warm the SST's in the Nino regions.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 1/28/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#10226 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yup.

Heading into mid February:

GFS continues to be weird and has the MJO greatly amplifying in phase 7.
CFS gets the MJO into phase 8.
https://i.imgur.com/EH3S0Qc.png

Euro gets the MJO into phase 8 and amplifies it much more now.
https://i.imgur.com/LTo3n6j.png

The GFS solution if it verifies means there's a great chance of a WWB over the WPAC and generating another downwelling Kelvin wave. The CFS and Euro solutions if they were to verify means a WWB over the dateline or closer to the CPAC which would strengthen the warm pool and warm the SST's in the Nino regions.



I'd go with CFS, it has done quite well this winter. The GEFS has been overamplifying the MJO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10227 Postby StruThiO » Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:10 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10228 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:40 am

Niño 3.4 will be down to +0.3C in the Weekly update that will be up soon.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10229 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:09 am

cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 will be down to +0.3C in the Weekly update that will be up soon.

https://i.imgur.com/ERpPXuq.gif


And here is the text of the 2/4/19 Weekly CPC update

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/4/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10230 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:17 pm

Today's CFS run shows the MJO in phase 8 with much higher amplification, very similar to the GFS. If this materializes then there a lot of potential for a huge WWB to take place between the WPAC and CPAC.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/4/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10231 Postby StruThiO » Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Today's CFS run shows the MJO in phase 8 with much higher amplification, very similar to the GFS. If this materializes then there a lot of potential for a huge WWB to take place between the WPAC and CPAC.


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10232 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:41 pm

ONI for NDJ came in at +0.8C. Two more to go.
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10233 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:53 pm

Raw westerlies coming up on the GFS:

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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10234 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:50 pm

PDO has been warming up since the start of the year:

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Showing this graph because JISAO hasn't been updated in quite a while.
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10235 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:00 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10236 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:01 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10237 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:32 pm

If this comes into fruition, it's a significant WWB. Game-changer kind of stuff when you're talking max raw winds.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10238 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:28 pm

If we are going to see a full-blown El Niño in 2019, we may as well seek another super Niño à la 2015-16. A very strong WWB could significantly strengthen the subsurface warm pool. If this upcoming WWB were to fully materialise, then I would definitely expect not just El Niño, but also a potentially strong or even very strong event. Since 2015-16, the Pacific seems to have entered into a subsurface phase that retains more heat than previously, and thus makes stronger and/or more persistent El Niño events more plausible, at least when other factors line up.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10239 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:21 pm

Shell Mound wrote:If we are going to see a full-blown El Niño in 2019, we may as well seek another super Niño à la 2015-16. A very strong WWB could significantly strengthen the subsurface warm pool. If this upcoming WWB were to fully materialise, then I would definitely expect not just El Niño, but also a potentially strong or even very strong event. Since 2015-16, the Pacific seems to have entered into a subsurface phase that retains more heat than previously, and thus makes stronger and/or more persistent El Niño events more plausible, at least when other factors line up.

I highly doubt that. Super El Niño events are rare and it would be quite unusual to see another super Niño so soon. But has the Pacific really entered a state that makes El Niño more likely? El Niño busted in 2017 and struggled to get going in 2018.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10240 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:26 pm

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Time frame getting closer. IF this materializes, I've never seen anomalies this strong.
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