CyclonicFury wrote:Shell Mound wrote:If we are going to see a full-blown El Niño in 2019, we may as well seek another super Niño à la 2015-16. A very strong WWB could significantly strengthen the subsurface warm pool. If this upcoming WWB were to fully materialise, then I would definitely expect not just El Niño, but also a potentially strong or even very strong event. Since 2015-16, the Pacific seems to have entered into a subsurface phase that retains more heat than previously, and thus makes stronger and/or more persistent El Niño events more plausible, at least when other factors line up.
I highly doubt that. Super El Niño events are rare and it would be quite unusual to see another super Niño so soon. But has the Pacific really entered a state that makes El Niño more likely? El Niño busted in 2017 and struggled to get going in 2018.
The thing is, 2017 and 2018 shouldn't have even been in consideration to be El Nino years. So even if they struggled/busted in attaining El Nino status, the fact that there was a possibility is eyebrow raising.