ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10361 Postby StruThiO » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:29 pm

According to the hovmoller, trades have been weakly enhanced but nothing serious or potent.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10362 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:11 pm

StruThiO wrote:According to the hovmoller, trades have been weakly enhanced but nothing serious or potent.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/M2KDx3Q.png[url]


It'll show a WWB as soon as it catches on with the Euro and CFS and sends the MJO back to the circle into phase 1/8, instead of looping the MJO back into phase 3.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10363 Postby NotSparta » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian,have the trades that Ventrice showed in the past few days have come to fructition? I ask because Niño 3.4 has dropped recently.


I think the trades have been closer to normal. The buoys are not showing big dips over Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4. They continue to show a large region of +1C or greater stretching from Nino 3 to Nino 4 (but again I'm not sure if I'm reading the buoys correctly). There's a possibility of a slight dip on Monday to account for the trades returning.


Yeah, there's some delay so results don't immediately show up
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10364 Postby NotSparta » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:According to the hovmoller, trades have been weakly enhanced but nothing serious or potent.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/M2KDx3Q.png[url]


It'll show a WWB as soon as it catches on with the Euro and CFS and sends the MJO back to the circle into phase 1/8, instead of looping the MJO back into phase 3.



Assuming that happens. IIRC, it wasn't supposed to be in phase 3/4 in the first place
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10365 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:24 pm

:uarrow:
Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:According to the hovmoller, trades have been weakly enhanced but nothing serious or potent.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/M2KDx3Q.png[url]


It'll show a WWB as soon as it catches on with the Euro and CFS and sends the MJO back to the circle into phase 1/8, instead of looping the MJO back into phase 3.


Here it is, concentrated over the WPAC, but I think it'll shift over to the dateline as it corrects towards the Euro/CFS. Today the GFS finally adjusted the MJO forecast out of phase 4 and into the circle. but It still doesn't show brief phase 8/phase 1 like the Euro/CFS are. But I think it'll get there.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10366 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:41 am

The CPC Weekly update has Niño 3.4 is down to +1.0C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10367 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:20 pm

Joe D'Aleo from http://www.Weatherbell.com posted that so far at the subsurface, 2019 is similar to 2015 and 2010. I already talked about the comparisons of 2015 or a possibility of a double El Nino event similar to 2014-2015.

But the 2010 comparison is intriguing because it's the strongest La Nina we've seen in the past decade.

--2010/2019 subsurface comparison
2010:
Image
2019:
Image

We can see some similarities here with impressive warm pools been the surface in both years, aided by El Nino's from prior years.

However 2010 had a strong upwelling Kelvin wave forming in the WPAC. We've yet to see any sort of cold pool form at the subsurface in the WPAC this year. It's even clearly visible on the buoys:
Image

--2010/2019 SST comparison
Image

--2010/2019 MJO comparison
Image
Pretty similar so far, but the key difference here is that in 2010 April, the MJO went into phases 4/5/6 which promoted strong trades. For this year, the MJO is currently in phase 4 but it will be going back into the circle and based on models, possibly re-emerge in the "El Nino phases"

So for 2019:
We had a weak El Nino form in 2018 that weakened through the winter and then after a series of successive WWB's in late winter, regained its footing and is intensifying with increased atmospheric coupling.

For 2010, it was a classic El Nino to cool-neutral/La Nina transition. There was a moderate El Nino in 2009 that peaked in the winter of 2009/2010 followed by a cold pool forming and propelling a La Nina event that became strong. Models were impressive in calling for this to happen as a lot of models in March showed the El Nino decaying and a La Nina taking over.

2010 model consensus:
Image

2019 model consensus:
Image

So seeing this, I wouldn't discount something similar to 2010 happening, but I would say it's not likely due to the way MJO is behaving, very coherent and strong downwelling Kelvin wave, and increased atmospheric coupling.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10368 Postby NotSparta » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Joe D'Aleo from http://www.Weatherbell.com posted that so far at the subsurface, 2019 is similar to 2015 and 2010. I already talked about the comparisons of 2015 or a possibility of a double El Nino event similar to 2014-2015.

But the 2010 comparison is intriguing because it's the strongest La Nina we've seen in the past decade.

-removed for readibility-


Hmm. That is actually interesting the similarities. As you said it was going into a Niña state though. 2019 is rather uncertain, but there is a definite Niño lean. I don't think the end result will be either, but probably closer to 2015 (weak-mod Niño are my thoughts)
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10369 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:34 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10370 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:13 pm

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1105461362434732036




Atmospherically, this doesn't support a formation of a La Nina. Also this Euro should be showing some westerlies in the WPAC at the minimum.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10371 Postby NotSparta » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:41 pm

Remember February's 2005 comparison, wrt ENSO (not Atlantic)? Well, it apparently followed w/ 2019, maybe even being stronger.

Image

Now, 2005 went into cool neutral/weak La Niña, but 2015 was a super Niño. What happened?

So, it looks like a lot of the divergence was in spring.

In 2005, mostly normal/enhanced trades existed. This meant the strong warm pool, w/o support, cooled, and wasted away. There was a WWB towards 140°E, but it didn't change the move away from El Niño.

Image

2015, however, was much different. Weak trades dominated. There was a strong WWB ongoing on March 12, 2015, and the tail end of it is seen here. There was also another WWB later. This supported the warm pool, and allowed it to thrive.

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10372 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:46 pm

NotSparta wrote:Remember February's 2005 comparison, wrt ENSO (not Atlantic)? Well, it apparently followed w/ 2019, maybe even being stronger.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/toaA4B0.png[url]

Now, 2005 went into cool neutral/weak La Niña, but 2015 was a super Niño. What happened?

So, it looks like a lot of the divergence was in spring.

In 2005, mostly normal/enhanced trades existed. This meant the strong warm pool, w/o support, cooled, and wasted away. There was a WWB towards 140°E, but it didn't change the move away from El Niño.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/V9h5rPS.jpg[url]

2015, however, was much different. Weak trades dominated. There was a strong WWB ongoing on March 12, 2015, and the tail end of it is seen here. There was also another WWB later. This supported the warm pool, and allowed it to thrive.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/SWKnC88.jpg[url]


Yup I remember the comparison, as 2005/2015 were my beginning of the year analogs. 2005 ENSO was going to follow 2019 ENSO through January, lose the comparison through February, and the comparison was to return through mid-March. So it's progressing just as I thought but like 2010, I think that'll be it with the MJO going back into the circle.

In March and April 2005, the MJO had strong amplification over the IO and the MJO went strong in phases 4/5/6 as well. That promoted strong trades that initiated an El Nino bust, by keeping a lid on the warm pool and reversing ENSO to cool neutral/borderline La Nina by hurricane season. Pretty similar to what happened in 2010.

Image

Here's today's GFS trying to take the MJO into phase 7/8 (CFS into phase 8, Euro has it diddy daddling in the circle):
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10373 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:58 pm

Image

If those week 1 week 2 forecasts verify the SOI drop will continue into April and it's very likely we'll see a WWB materialize over the dateline/CPAC.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10374 Postby NotSparta » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Remember February's 2005 comparison, wrt ENSO (not Atlantic)? Well, it apparently followed w/ 2019, maybe even being stronger.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/toaA4B0.png[url]

Now, 2005 went into cool neutral/weak La Niña, but 2015 was a super Niño. What happened?

So, it looks like a lot of the divergence was in spring.

In 2005, mostly normal/enhanced trades existed. This meant the strong warm pool, w/o support, cooled, and wasted away. There was a WWB towards 140°E, but it didn't change the move away from El Niño.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/V9h5rPS.jpg[url]

2015, however, was much different. Weak trades dominated. There was a strong WWB ongoing on March 12, 2015, and the tail end of it is seen here. There was also another WWB later. This supported the warm pool, and allowed it to thrive.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/SWKnC88.jpg[url]


Yup I remember the comparison, as 2005/2015 were my beginning of the year analogs. 2005 ENSO was going to follow 2019 ENSO through January, lose the comparison through February, and the comparison was to return through mid-March. So it's progressing just as I thought but like 2010, I think that'll be it with the MJO going back into the circle.

In March and April 2005, the MJO had strong amplification over the IO and the MJO went strong in phases 4/5/6 as well. That promoted strong trades that initiated an El Nino bust, by keeping a lid on the warm pool and reversing ENSO to cool neutral/borderline La Nina by hurricane season. Pretty similar to what happened in 2010.

https://i.imgur.com/9SoK1IY.png

Here's today's GFS trying to take the MJO into phase 7/8 (CFS into phase 8, Euro has it diddy daddling in the circle):
https://i.imgur.com/BNZbpMD.png



Yeah, the comparison doesn't work as well when you look at outside conditions. Interestingly, it looked like 2005 had an accelerated Niño, where the warm pool surfaced, was followed by a cool pool & La Niña.

Image

Due to the diffs I believe weak-mod Niño is most likely, but as you know much can change due to the SPB. I wouldn't rule much out until it becomes very apparent that window is closing.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/11/19: Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C

#10375 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:15 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Remember February's 2005 comparison, wrt ENSO (not Atlantic)? Well, it apparently followed w/ 2019, maybe even being stronger.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/toaA4B0.png[url]

Now, 2005 went into cool neutral/weak La Niña, but 2015 was a super Niño. What happened?

So, it looks like a lot of the divergence was in spring.

In 2005, mostly normal/enhanced trades existed. This meant the strong warm pool, w/o support, cooled, and wasted away. There was a WWB towards 140°E, but it didn't change the move away from El Niño.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/V9h5rPS.jpg[url]

2015, however, was much different. Weak trades dominated. There was a strong WWB ongoing on March 12, 2015, and the tail end of it is seen here. There was also another WWB later. This supported the warm pool, and allowed it to thrive.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/SWKnC88.jpg[url]


Yup I remember the comparison, as 2005/2015 were my beginning of the year analogs. 2005 ENSO was going to follow 2019 ENSO through January, lose the comparison through February, and the comparison was to return through mid-March. So it's progressing just as I thought but like 2010, I think that'll be it with the MJO going back into the circle.

In March and April 2005, the MJO had strong amplification over the IO and the MJO went strong in phases 4/5/6 as well. That promoted strong trades that initiated an El Nino bust, by keeping a lid on the warm pool and reversing ENSO to cool neutral/borderline La Nina by hurricane season. Pretty similar to what happened in 2010.

https://i.imgur.com/9SoK1IY.png

Here's today's GFS trying to take the MJO into phase 7/8 (CFS into phase 8, Euro has it diddy daddling in the circle):
https://i.imgur.com/BNZbpMD.png



Yeah, the comparison doesn't work as well when you look at outside conditions. Interestingly, it looked like 2005 had an accelerated Niño, where the warm pool surfaced, was followed by a cool pool & La Niña.

[url]https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/jsdisplay/dep_lon_EQ_20050413_t_mean_20050413_t_anom_500_0_500_0_hf_inline_2019031215.png[url]

Due to the diffs I believe weak-mod Niño is most likely, but as you know much can change due to the SPB. I wouldn't rule much out until it becomes very apparent that window is closing.


I'd give it 2-3 weeks tops and then it'll become very clear what's going to happen. April sealed the deal in 2005 and 2010.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10376 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:29 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10377 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Interesting from Ventrice.

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1105609354454147078[url]


And then these big tweets:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1105613472212152320




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1105614215337963520




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1105612851832676352


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10378 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:56 pm

Biggest difference between 2015 and 2019 in regards to atmospheric forcing is located over Africa and the Indian ocean. In relation to the walker cell, currently we have a much less of a sinking branch in that region compared to 2015. However in the Pacific we have the rising branch and in the Atlantic we see the sinking branch.

Image

We'll see what happens in the next 3 weeks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10379 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:10 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC March Update: El Niño to last thru Summer

#10380 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:03 am

Here is the monthly CPC update:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 March 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance).

El Niño conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined. The SST index values in the Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions all increased during February, with the latest weekly values near +1°C in each region [Fig. 2]. The anomalous upper-ocean heat content (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased appreciably during February [Fig. 3], due to an increase in above-average temperatures at depth in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Enhanced equatorial convection prevailed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection was observed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the far western and far eastern Pacific. The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were both negative (-1.4 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the Northern Hemisphere early autumn 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave, and the increase in both the SSTs and subsurface ocean temperatures, most forecasters expect positive SST anomalies to persist across the central and eastern Pacific for at least the next several months. During that time, forecasters predict the SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C, indicating weak El Niño conditions. However, because forecasts made during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will persist beyond summer is currently about 50%. In summary, weak El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance); click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period.


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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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