ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115226
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10401 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:51 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115226
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/25/19: Niño 3.4 up to +1.1C

#10402 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:14 am

CPC Weekly update has Niño 3.4 going up from +1.0C last week to +1.1C this week.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: BoM 3/19/18 update: El Niño Alert issued

#10403 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 25, 2019 2:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Anyone know why the buoys are running much cooler than the subsurface analysis that the CPC uses? Different datasets? I know it's normal for their to be some differences, but I have never seen the two be different to this degree.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/IWZDrGh.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/U8znCHJ.png[url]


Paul Roundy with some sort of explanation in this tweet reply:

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1110136665392193536




So I'm assuming that these subsurface charts that update slowly have access to different instruments. I've noticed the buoys have been very volatile and inconsistent in their presentation of the subsurface this past week. It's pretty odd to see them behave in such a manner.
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 3/25/19: Niño 3.4 up to +1.1C

#10404 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 25, 2019 5:20 pm

This is pretty crazy to me. If it wasn't for the MJO parked in the WPAC and currently resembling phases 6/7 (next week in phase 8), along with the subsurface graphics showing a huge downwelling Kelvin wave, the buoys subsurface graphic currently resemble a blend of 2005/2010. Would be great to get some sort of definite answers.

Image
Image
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10405 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:30 pm

Subsurface pool has been largely steady throughout March:
Image

In the past 3 weeks we have seen raw westerly winds but they remain confined to 150/160 vs the dateline.
Image
2 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10406 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:36 am

PDO signature looking better defined as of late:

Image
2 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10407 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:25 pm

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1111688892166615040




Euro adjusted to show much more of a westerly component compared to its earlier graphics.
2 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115226
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10408 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:40 pm

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10139
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#10409 Postby NDG » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:23 am

This week's update, Nino 1+2 cools down to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.7C, Nino 3.4 down a notch to +1.0C, Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
The weak El Nino remains very central based.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5662
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#10410 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:26 am

NDG wrote:This week's update, Nino 1+2 cools down to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.7C, Nino 3.4 down a notch to +1.0C, Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
The weak El Nino remains very central based.

Could you say it’s Modoki at this point? What implications would this have towards the upcoming Atlantic season?
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10139
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#10411 Postby NDG » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:41 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:This week's update, Nino 1+2 cools down to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.7C, Nino 3.4 down a notch to +1.0C, Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
The weak El Nino remains very central based.

Could you say it’s Modoki at this point? What implications would this have towards the upcoming Atlantic season?


Usually a Modoki El Nino means conditions not as bad for the Atlantic as an eastern based traditional El Nino. But there is still plenty of time for it to become more eastern based during the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Time will tell, IMO.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115226
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10412 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:52 am

Text of weekly CPC update that has Niño 3.4 down to +1.0C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10413 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:23 pm

Despite the PENTAD graphics showing a possibility for a strong El Nino, the TAO graphics continue to show it's not happening... I mean the buoys are showing what appears to be increased cool neural/La Nina possibilities with a decent cold pool progressing. So we may have to Super El Nino/Strong El Nino cancel pretty soon. This can change though and there is a possibility we get a big event. However, we need someone at NOAA to explain why there's such a huge difference between the buoys and the PENTAD graphics. And we also need the MJO to amplify while it's in phases 7/8.

The differences are clear as day:
Image
Image
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 310
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#10414 Postby StruThiO » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:06 pm

Image
2 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4419
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#10415 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:22 am

Looks like the newly updated BOM model goes near neutral for ENSO come Aug/Sept. This appears to be an outlier

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10416 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:09 pm

Of course the latest update from the subsurface continues to be very warm.

Image
4 likes   
Image

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 811
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#10417 Postby NotSparta » Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:22 pm

I'm seeing a lot of model variability pop up, looks like it's time to buckle up, we're getting into the heart of the predictability barrier
6 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2075
Age: 21
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#10418 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:32 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Looks like the newly updated BOM model goes near neutral for ENSO come Aug/Sept. This appears to be an outlier

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190402/c2a1c3624045171d3f83bae94a7aa763.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And yet probably the model I would lean closest to right now. The hovmoller above is a good lesson in how not to sustain an El Nino, much less intensify one.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10419 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:05 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Looks like the newly updated BOM model goes near neutral for ENSO come Aug/Sept. This appears to be an outlier

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190402/c2a1c3624045171d3f83bae94a7aa763.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And yet probably the model I would lean closest to right now. The hovmoller above is a good lesson in how not to sustain an El Nino, much less intensify one.


If the PENTAD data is correct, Itll sustain an El nino no problem especially since we keep seeing westerlies just west of the dateline (continued promotion of downwelling). Definetly not a super El Nino though. But that hovmoller is based on the GFS which has been very erratic with the MJO.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10420 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:07 pm

NotSparta wrote:I'm seeing a lot of model variability pop up, looks like it's time to buckle up, we're getting into the heart of the predictability barrier

The CFS doesn't care about the SPB. It'll be erratic well through the start of hurricane season.
1 likes   
Image


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: pepecool20, Sciencerocks, Siker and 27 guests