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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall

#10441 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:10 am

Here is the monthly CPC update for April and is not great news for those who like to track a lot of systems in the North Atlantic Basin.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 April 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: A weak El Nino is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and possibly fall (50-55% chance).

El Niño continued during March 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly values of the Niño3 and Niño4 indices were +0.8°C, while the Niño3.4 value was +0.9°C [Fig. 2]. The anomalous upper-ocean heat content (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased during March but remained well above average [Fig. 3], as the above-average temperatures at depth peaked in early March in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Enhanced equatorial convection was observed near the Date Line and in the western Pacific, while suppressed convection prevailed over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the western Pacific Ocean during March. Meanwhile, upper-level winds were mostly near average. The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were negative. Overall, these features are consistent with a weak El Niño.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the remainder of 2019 [Fig. 6]. Most forecasters expect SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C for at least the next several seasons, indicating a weak El Niño. However, because forecasts made during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will persist through fall is currently 50-55%. In summary, a weak El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and possibly fall (50-55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10442 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:05 am

Here is the ENSO Blog where they discuss with more imput about the April update: Excerpt below:

Future you lives here
What is unusual is the model forecast for continued weak El Niño through the summer, with the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature expected to stay a bit above the El Niño threshold. This is a pattern that we haven’t seen in the (admittedly short) 1950–present historical record.

Also, forecasters think there’s about a 50-55% probability that El Niño will continue into the fall. As we’ve discussed before, the spring predictability barrier means it’s difficult for climate models to make successful predictions during March, April, and May, a time of year when ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño and La Niña system) events are usually decaying and changing phase. This springtime indecisiveness partially explains the moderate probabilities that forecasters estimate for El Niño continuing into the fall.

The amount of warmer-than-average water between the surface and about 300 meters below the surface was elevated during March, as a downwelling Kelvin wave continued to move eastward under the surface of the equatorial Pacific. As this blob of warm water gradually rises, it will provide a source of warm water to the surface, helping to keep temperatures elevated through the next few months, and helping support the forecast through the spring and summer.


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... u-are-here
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10443 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:02 pm

Well, that's a big shift. Large uncertainty remains, and it always could shift back. But it's a marked change from the model showing El Nino continuing for the past several months.
Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10444 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:03 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Well, that's a big shift. Large uncertainty remains, and it always could shift back. But it's a marked change from the model showing El Nino continuing for the past several months.
https://i.imgur.com/sgx2amx.gif


Wow, that's a huge shift from even this morning!

Note the blue lines - those are the latest members. Where are they? Mostly supporting the current trend. As CyclonicFury said, it can easily trend back, but all trends should be monitored regardless.
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10445 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:07 pm

NotSparta wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Well, that's a big shift. Large uncertainty remains, and it always could shift back. But it's a marked change from the model showing El Nino continuing for the past several months.
https://i.imgur.com/sgx2amx.gif


Wow, that's a huge shift from even this morning!

Note the blue lines - those are the latest members. Where are they? Mostly supporting the current trend. As CyclonicFury said, it can easily trend back, but all trends should be monitored regardless.

The La Niña solutions do not seem likely unless the cold pool significantly strengthens. I wonder if this model is missing data because of the buoy problems.

However, the subsurface warm pool in the Pacific has shrunk and weakened. If a downwelling Kelvin Wave does not trigger the development of a new warm pool, El Niño could be in trouble.
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10446 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:46 pm

:uarrow: That CFS is graphic is much more accurate and believable. Looks like there's enough juice at the subsurface for weak Nino conditions to continue until August.
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10447 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:05 pm

We also still have great deal of MJO activity left that will tilt the scale one way or the other.
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10448 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:26 pm

Wait why is this graphic different than the one CyclonicFury posted?

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10449 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Wait why is this graphic different than the one CyclonicFury posted?

https://i.imgur.com/3yOX67o.png

That graphic uses the initial conditions of March 13-22 for its data. That's not the most recent members.

The CFSv2 is subject to some noise so it will be interesting to see what the newest members show in a week or two.
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Re: ENSO: CPC April update: El Niño thru Summer and possibly thru the Fall (Up to 55% in ASO)

#10450 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:28 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Well, that's a big shift. Large uncertainty remains, and it always could shift back. But it's a marked change from the model showing El Nino continuing for the past several months.
https://i.imgur.com/sgx2amx.gif

If this happens, El Niño may be on the rocks by late June early July and we may have a strongly backloaded Atlantic hurricane season
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10451 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:32 pm

It also looks like a central pacific based El Niño with cool anomalies in the 1/2 region, borderline madoki
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10452 Postby NotSparta » Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:02 pm

I made a twitter thread about why it doesn't look like the +PMM will be a big Niño driver

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1117198326020153344


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10453 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:34 pm

NotSparta wrote:I made a twitter thread about why it doesn't look like the +PMM will be a big Niño driver

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1117198326020153344

Good analysis. Problem is +PMMs are just part of the puzzle. They're evident during El Ninos but they seem to be byproducts of whatever that is that triggers El Ninos.

I think ENSO is the main driver for +PDO regimes and +PMMs. The latter dont drive it.

Maybe 2019 will be it's own unique El Nino year similar to how 2018 was unique.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 4/15/19: Niño 3.4 remains at +0.9C

#10454 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:40 am

No change to Niño 3.4 on the CPC Weekly update as it remains at +0.9C for a second week in a row.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10455 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:56 am

This certainly isn't 2015.
Image
Image
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10456 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:55 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:This certainly isn't 2015.
https://i.imgur.com/g1YO4zYl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/6ae1j2ml.jpg
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.

Looks surprisingly like 2017 so we’ll have to see what happens
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10457 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:58 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:This certainly isn't 2015.
https://i.imgur.com/g1YO4zYl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/6ae1j2ml.jpg
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.

Looks surprisingly like 2017 so we’ll have to see what happens

Do you have an image to back that up?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10458 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:25 pm

Image

Image

The latest Enso prediction from the BOM, Euro and others shows warm neutral - weak El Nino for September. The Spring barrier is still present so take this with a grain of salt.


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10459 Postby NotSparta » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:55 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:This certainly isn't 2015.
https://i.imgur.com/g1YO4zYl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/6ae1j2ml.jpg
Having a weak double Niño would be a very rare occurrence. Most second year Niños of multiyear events are quite strong. There's also certainly a chance this Niño dissipates sometime in summer and neutral conditions prevail by fall.

Looks surprisingly like 2017 so we’ll have to see what happens


2017 was significantly cooler. It never even approached the heat there currently.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10460 Postby NotSparta » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:58 pm

Subsfc heat has fallen significantly lately. A WWB could prop it up again like what happened in February, but there's not much in sight currently

Image

Image
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