ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10521 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:41 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10522 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Apr 28, 2019 3:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10523 Postby Ntxw » Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:18 pm

We are still in an El Nino that began last Fall. ONI trimonthlies are still hovering 0.8C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10524 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:24 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:I just feel some of these pros don’t want to be wrong because they have been calling for an El Niño even for the last couple of months.

It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.


Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10525 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:It's a weird situation because we're not even supposed to be in an El Nino, and we shouldn't even be in consideration for a double dip El Nino so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.

Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.


Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.


At the same time, the same rule says we should have been in a La Niña/neutral last year
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10526 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:54 am

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Are we really "not supposed" to be in an El Niño? They typically recur every 2-7 years. The last true El Niño we had was the 2014-16 event. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were La Niña years, though 2017 approached Niño levels in spring before cooling.


Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.


At the same time, the same rule says we should have been in a La Niña/neutral last year


What's more puzzling is that we didn't see a strong La Nina after 2016. Just weak events.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10527 Postby NotSparta » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:38 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Not if they're super El Nino's. Per ONI it looks like an El Nino happens after a super/strong El Nino 4 years after. We flirted with warm neutral in the first half of 2017, first half of 2018, and ended up having an El Nino for the latter portions of 2018. And not a double dip El Nino as the CFS and Euro are showing, especially so soon after the last one in 2014-2015.


At the same time, the same rule says we should have been in a La Niña/neutral last year


What's more puzzling is that we didn't see a strong La Nina after 2016. Just weak events.


I think that was mostly having to do w/ the PMM not diving to -ve values like it normally does
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 4/29/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10528 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:51 am

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 going slightly up from +0.8C last week to +0.9C this week.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 4/29/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10529 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:23 pm

Mark sudduth Hurricane update/el nino

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOjidlJPLac
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 4/29/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10530 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:23 pm

The CFS has been showing a monster WWB for about a week now... probably overdone in some areas but its beginning to verify over the WPAC.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10531 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 01, 2019 12:57 am

SOI will be positive for the next few days. Boy does it have major lag... Takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or easterlies.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10532 Postby Chris90 » Wed May 01, 2019 1:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:SOI will be positive for the next few days. Boy does it have major lag... Takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or easterlies.


Would you mind explaining the lag a bit if you can? I just started following and learning about ENSO this year. I've been following the SOI dailies and watching the trends with the 30 and 90 day averages, and I know the basics with regards to it being positive or negative, but I've never heard about lag with it.
When you say it takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or westerlies, how long of a period should we be looking for to see what it is promoting? And is there a certain threshold we should hit positive/negative before it will flip between easterlies/westerlies?

Thanks in advance for any help you can provide!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10533 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 01, 2019 2:15 am

Chris90 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:SOI will be positive for the next few days. Boy does it have major lag... Takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or easterlies.


Would you mind explaining the lag a bit if you can? I just started following and learning about ENSO this year. I've been following the SOI dailies and watching the trends with the 30 and 90 day averages, and I know the basics with regards to it being positive or negative, but I've never heard about lag with it.
When you say it takes too long to indicate whether pressures have changed enough to promote westerlies or westerlies, how long of a period should we be looking for to see what it is promoting? And is there a certain threshold we should hit positive/negative before it will flip between easterlies/westerlies?

Thanks in advance for any help you can provide!


While a pretty large EWB was taking place, SOI values were negative when they should've been positive. Easterlies are usually dominant across the equatorial pacific when the pressures are lower in Darwin and higher in Tahiti (positive SOI), and vice versa in regards to westerlies. So right now we're going to see some positives in the range of +8 or higher while the winds shift and become predominately westerly. Yet down the line, we'll see the dailies tank while the westerlies relax. So the lag is that the 30 day SOI takes time to reflect real time events and can give false impression. Which is why experts like Dr. Ventrice don't use it... but the CPC and BOM swear by it. The 90 day average is pretty solid but takes a loong time to show changes in the atmosphere.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10534 Postby Chris90 » Wed May 01, 2019 8:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
While a pretty large EWB was taking place, SOI values were negative when they should've been positive. Easterlies are usually dominant across the equatorial pacific when the pressures are lower in Darwin and higher in Tahiti (positive SOI), and vice versa in regards to westerlies. So right now we're going to see some positives in the range of +8 or higher while the winds shift and become predominately westerly. Yet down the line, we'll see the dailies tank while the westerlies relax. So the lag is that the 30 day SOI takes time to reflect real time events and can give false impression. Which is why experts like Dr. Ventrice don't use it... but the CPC and BOM swear by it. The 90 day average is pretty solid but takes a loong time to show changes in the atmosphere.


Thanks so much for your response, it was very helpful. Now I see the correlation between the winds and the SOI and how it can lag behind.
Would the equatorial SOI be a better measure do you think? I've seen it mentioned a few times, but never as much as just the regular SOI. Just did some quick searching and found a link for some data, although it only shows monthly means, not dailies or 30/90 day averages like the regular SOI.
February mean was -1.4 though, and March was -1.2, hopefully April will update within the next few days.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10535 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 02, 2019 9:09 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10536 Postby SoupBone » Thu May 02, 2019 9:55 am

cycloneye wrote:Phil throws the hammer.



Would this also correlate to increased Caribbean wind shear as well? If not, where would we look for that info? And as much as I like tracking, bring on the shear!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10537 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 02, 2019 2:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:Phil throws the hammer.

[url]https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1123949714288906240[url]

CFS now keeps the El Nino into January 2020:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1123960253387890688


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10538 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 02, 2019 2:28 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10539 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 02, 2019 2:44 pm

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GFS shows a large WWB over the WPAC but not yet over the dateline(though its slowly getting there). Euro and CFS show a strong WWB reaching the dateline. Again it looks like the differences is due to MJO progression.

GFS has the MJO back in the null phase while the Euro and CFS show amplification in phase 8 (CPAC/EPAC).
GFS:
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Euro:
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CFS:
Image

The Euro and CFS if their solutions are to verify will surely trigger a large scale downwelling Kelvin wave and greatly increase OHC. GFS's solution is 50/50 and would leave the door open to neutral ENSO, especially if another round of trades come through.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10540 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 02, 2019 4:56 pm

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