ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10541 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 02, 2019 5:01 pm

:uarrow:

If the CANSIPS verifies, it would have ramifications towards the Atlantic hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10542 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 02, 2019 7:45 pm

Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10543 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 02, 2019 9:07 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol


No one said its fizzling
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10544 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu May 02, 2019 9:23 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol

Part of the spring barrier I’m guessing, now that we are getting closer I feel like we will get a better reading of ENSO conditions.

I think ENSO will be in full force come this hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10545 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 02, 2019 9:31 pm

Have to remind everyone again despite the confusion that we are still in an El Nino. The question/debate has been does it strengthen, hold steady, or fade. FMA will be out soon and continue the >0.5C anomalies.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10546 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 03, 2019 6:55 am

Kingarabian wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol


No one said its fizzling

I’m pretty sure just last week folks were saying it would dissipate by peak season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10547 Postby USTropics » Fri May 03, 2019 7:57 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Man they model jump all over these models just like hurricane season lol 3 weeks El Niño fizzling now oh man it’s coming back lol


No one said its fizzling

I’m pretty sure just last week folks were saying it would dissipate by peak season.


There were some model runs that cast some uncertainty on the evolution of ENSO going into late summer. They also seem to indicate a short ramp up going into June. We're still in the spring predictability barrier, so wouldn't read too much into it.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10548 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 03, 2019 3:32 pm

SPB or not, I believe we have a long way to go before models will be useful when it comes to ENSO. So I don't give them much thought and I only post them for informative purposes. Learned the hard way. I just stick to real time/near future observations that measure temperature beneath the surface and zonal wind activity.

It's funny that the models are so bad when it comes to ENSO because they generally do a pretty good job with the MJO and CCKW's along with sniffing out trade bursts and westerly wind bursts.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10549 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 03, 2019 3:35 pm

Here's a nice twitter thread from Philippe Pappin that covers the latest events:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1123756048769269760
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10550 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 03, 2019 10:32 pm

FMA came in at 0.8C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10551 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 04, 2019 6:28 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10552 Postby Ntxw » Sat May 04, 2019 11:01 am

FMA comes in at +0.8C again. El Nino continues, now in the 6th consecutive trimonthly. Really it has basically held steady since October.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10553 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 04, 2019 5:58 pm

GFS has caved to the Euro and CFS in its MJO forecast on today's RMM plots.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10554 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 05, 2019 2:51 pm

Strong raw westerlies over the equatorial WPAC making their way east.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1125017579876167680


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10555 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 06, 2019 9:08 am

No change from last week in the CPC update +0.9C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10556 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 06, 2019 4:40 pm

OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:
Image

GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:
Image

Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10557 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 06, 2019 6:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:
https://i.imgur.com/VM9MNWn.png

GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/TbKoRe3.png

Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK


Doesn't look like the February event to me. Still further west, reminds me of the March event (but a bit east). It is stronger than the last but not as much as February. In addition, if the forecast verifies, the duration will leave much to be desired.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10558 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 06, 2019 6:50 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:
https://i.imgur.com/VM9MNWn.png

GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/TbKoRe3.png

Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK


Doesn't look like the February event to me. Still further west, reminds me of the March event (but a bit east). It is stronger than the last but not as much as February. In addition, if the forecast verifies, the duration will leave much to be desired.

It's much stronger and coherent than what we saw in March. I don't even think what we saw in March counts as a true westerly burst. So far this event has similar Ms speeds near the dateline to the February WWB and with due time it likely to continue correct east. CFS has this WWB as strong or stronger than the February WWB
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10559 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 06, 2019 6:59 pm

Here is a GIF of the GFS adjusting its WWB forecast:
Image
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon May 06, 2019 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10560 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 06, 2019 7:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:OHC is on life support, down to about 0.3:
https://i.imgur.com/VM9MNWn.png

GFS now pretty much similar to the Euro in its MJO forecast and continues to expand its strong WWB, now reaching the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/TbKoRe3.png

Looks like it will be similar to the February event with the way things are progressing. It's well defined to the point you can clearly see the event over the equatorial WPAC on satellite imagery.
(7mb gif loop): https://imgur.com/Z8QAVpK


Doesn't look like the February event to me. Still further west, reminds me of the March event (but a bit east). It is stronger than the last but not as much as February. In addition, if the forecast verifies, the duration will leave much to be desired.

It's much stronger and coherent than what we saw in March. I don't even think what we saw in March counts as a true westerly burst. So far this event has similar Ms speeds near the dateline to the February WWB and with due time it likely to continue correct east. CFS has this WWB as strong or stronger than the February WWB


Yeah, for sure. The March WWB was anemic. This one does have those huge anomalies coming, but what made the February event was having more long-lived & larger areas. In addition, this WWB still is a bit too far west. It doesn't really get much past the dateline, while the February WWB was centered near it, & even got as far as 150°W.

Image

It's no surprise that the CFS shows a stronger WWB - it's the strongest w/ the MJO - much more so than the Euro or GFS
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