NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:
Doesn't look like the February event to me. Still further west, reminds me of the March event (but a bit east). It is stronger than the last but not as much as February. In addition, if the forecast verifies, the duration will leave much to be desired.
It's much stronger and coherent than what we saw in March. I don't even think what we saw in March counts as a true westerly burst. So far this event has similar Ms speeds near the dateline to the February WWB and with due time it likely to continue correct east. CFS has this WWB as strong or stronger than the February WWB
Yeah, for sure. The March WWB was anemic. This one does have those huge anomalies coming, but what made the February event was having more long-lived & larger areas. In addition, this WWB still is a bit too far west. It doesn't really get much past the dateline, while the February WWB was centered near it, & even got as far as 150°W.
It's no surprise that the CFS shows a stronger WWB - it's the strongest w/ the MJO - much more so than the Euro or GFS
And the March WWB looks even worse when filtered for raw westerly winds.
GFS, Euro, and CFS all have the same sigma when the MJO enters phase 8. Main difference now in the long range forecasts is that the GFS and CFS go into phase 1 with good amplification wile Euro goes back to the null phase.