ENSO Updates

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NotSparta
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Re: ENSO: CPC May update: El Niño to persist thru Summer (70%) and Fall (55%-60%)

#10581 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 10, 2019 5:39 pm

Kingarabian wrote:A great way to view raw westerly winds and see if they're verifying, is through the buoys. Sharp long arrows pointing from west to east (longer the stronger) are beginning to appear just west of the dateline.
https://i.imgur.com/W3vSruQ.png

Here's a comparison with the WWB we saw in mid march and for same time period in 2005:
https://i.imgur.com/lGkWleB.png

Yeah, this is finally where we diverge from that 2005 analog. I'm surprised it hung around until May. There should be some warming at least of the subsfc soon.

However, it looks like this is the peak of the WWB. Even the CFS has backed off (w/ a drop in SSTA forecast). That means that if this won't significantly boost subsfc anomalies, we'll have to wait weeks. And already, at this point, the current El Niño isn't that healthy
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10582 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun May 12, 2019 10:01 am

Looks like we have a down welling kelvin wave with the newest data
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10583 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 13, 2019 7:54 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10584 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 13, 2019 8:57 am

Thinking safest bet is warm neutral w/ weak El Niño close behind. Just not enough heat in the subsfc even considering the new KW, and it doesn't look like there will be another WWB until June, due to MJO
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10585 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 13, 2019 9:12 am

A big drop from last week +0.9C to now +0.5C in this weeks update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10586 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 13, 2019 9:47 am

cycloneye wrote:A big drop from last week +0.9C to now +0.5C in this weeks update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf


Think you can blame some of the cooling on the cool area around 130°W

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10587 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 9:50 am

cycloneye wrote:A big drop from last week (+0.9C to now +0.5C in this weeks update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf


Looks like its due to Nino 3 tanking. That PDF has PENTAD graphics that show cooler anomalies mixing in at the surface beneath Nino 3. With Nino 4 rising looks like the Modoki signature is back.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10588 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 9:55 am

NotSparta wrote:Thinking safest bet is warm neutral w/ weak El Niño close behind. Just not enough heat in the subsfc even considering the new KW, and it doesn't look like there will be another WWB until June, due to MJO


This is interestingly similar to what we saw last year. I remember last year at this time time there was a period of relaxed trades across the CPAC/EPAC followed by a WWB in June that didnt do much but kept the status quo going. SSTs were in the +0.3C/+0.5C area until October.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10589 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 13, 2019 10:05 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Thinking safest bet is warm neutral w/ weak El Niño close behind. Just not enough heat in the subsfc even considering the new KW, and it doesn't look like there will be another WWB until June, due to MJO


This is interestingly similar to what we saw last year. I remember last year at this time time there was a period of relaxed trades across the CPAC/EPAC followed by a WWB in June that didnt do much but kept the status quo going. SSTs were in the +0.3C/+0.5C area until October.


Yeah, w/ the WAM waking up I think the ENSO is getting stuck in warm neutral again as the monsoon standing wave overpowers the ENSO one (this hasn't happened yet). The subsfc is cool but there is a small downwelling KW coming, which would bump Niño SSTAs up. Anyway I agree w/ you, sticking around in the warm side of warm neutral looks like a good call currently.

There's the big Pacific warm pool again which would promote an active season in the EP/CP, and the possibility of an above average Atlantic season, would be interesting if that happened again
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10590 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon May 13, 2019 10:05 am

This is really closing in on a La Nada if you ask me. I just don't think it's a serious factor for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. What I am watching is the anomalies in the Pacific off the immediate coast of South America, Central America and Mexico. If you see cool/neutral there, it will mean sinking air there. Which pumps rising air to the east (GOM/ATL), where it matters. If you see that you know ATL season is not going to be impeded by ENSO this year.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10591 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 10:10 am

GeneratorPower wrote:This is really closing in on a La Nada if you ask me. I just don't think it's a serious factor for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. What I am watching is the anomalies in the Pacific off the immediate coast of South America, Central America and Mexico. If you see cool/neutral there, it will mean sinking air there. Which pumps rising air to the east (GOM/ATL), where it matters. If you see that you know ATL season is not going to be impeded by ENSO this year.


Cant be a La Nada since we're in a present El Nino and theoretically theres enough juice to keep ONI at El Nino threshold for the next several months. Almost setting up to be exactly like last year. Nino 1+2 was similar last year as well.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10592 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 10:12 am

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Thinking safest bet is warm neutral w/ weak El Niño close behind. Just not enough heat in the subsfc even considering the new KW, and it doesn't look like there will be another WWB until June, due to MJO


This is interestingly similar to what we saw last year. I remember last year at this time time there was a period of relaxed trades across the CPAC/EPAC followed by a WWB in June that didnt do much but kept the status quo going. SSTs were in the +0.3C/+0.5C area until October.


Yeah, w/ the WAM waking up I think the ENSO is getting stuck in warm neutral again as the monsoon standing wave overpowers the ENSO one (this hasn't happened yet). The subsfc is cool but there is a small downwelling KW coming, which would bump Niño SSTAs up. Anyway I agree w/ you, sticking around in the warm side of warm neutral looks like a good call currently.

There's the big Pacific warm pool again which would promote an active season in the EP/CP, and the possibility of an above average Atlantic season, would be interesting if that happened again


Unless we get a few more rounds of strong trades by July.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10593 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 13, 2019 10:18 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
This is interestingly similar to what we saw last year. I remember last year at this time time there was a period of relaxed trades across the CPAC/EPAC followed by a WWB in June that didnt do much but kept the status quo going. SSTs were in the +0.3C/+0.5C area until October.


Yeah, w/ the WAM waking up I think the ENSO is getting stuck in warm neutral again as the monsoon standing wave overpowers the ENSO one (this hasn't happened yet). The subsfc is cool but there is a small downwelling KW coming, which would bump Niño SSTAs up. Anyway I agree w/ you, sticking around in the warm side of warm neutral looks like a good call currently.

There's the big Pacific warm pool again which would promote an active season in the EP/CP, and the possibility of an above average Atlantic season, would be interesting if that happened again


Unless we get a few more rounds of strong trades by July.


You mean for ENSO?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10594 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 13, 2019 11:37 am

Shocking to see the Niño 3.4 cool so much during the WWB. It could be a delayed response, but so far this WWB did not do what it needed in order to kick start the Niño into steady growth. We are still in an El Niño for the time being, but with the subsurface quite cool and this downwelling KW not looking very impressive so far, ENSO dropping into warm neutral territory at some point this summer is not out of the question.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10595 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 13, 2019 12:13 pm

Yep neural is looking more likely come aug-nov!!
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10596 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 2:49 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Shocking to see the Niño 3.4 cool so much during the WWB. It could be a delayed response, but so far this WWB did not do what it needed in order to kick start the Niño into steady growth. We are still in an El Niño for the time being, but with the subsurface quite cool and this downwelling KW not looking very impressive so far, ENSO dropping into warm neutral territory at some point this summer is not out of the question.


Cooling happening east of where the WWB is occurring where the trades are still running above average. The Euro forecast shows that the trades will slow down considerably for the rest of the month so we will likely see Nino 3.4 fluctuate between +0.4C/+0.8C until June.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10597 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 13, 2019 3:01 pm

lol EURO has struggled man....don't buy it one bit
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10598 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 13, 2019 3:05 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:lol EURO has struggled man....don't buy it one bit

The Euro hasn’t been living up to what it was known for for several years now!
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10599 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 3:11 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:lol EURO has struggled man....don't buy it one bit

In terms of zonal wind activity, what did it do wrong?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10600 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 13, 2019 4:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Shocking to see the Niño 3.4 cool so much during the WWB. It could be a delayed response, but so far this WWB did not do what it needed in order to kick start the Niño into steady growth. We are still in an El Niño for the time being, but with the subsurface quite cool and this downwelling KW not looking very impressive so far, ENSO dropping into warm neutral territory at some point this summer is not out of the question.


Cooling happening east of where the WWB is occurring where the trades are still running above average. The Euro forecast shows that the trades will slow down considerably for the rest of the month so we will likely see Nino 3.4 fluctuate between +0.4C/+0.8C until June.

Slow down considerably? Hasn't the WWB already peaked? It does appear that trades will be relaxed, but the peak of the WWB has already occurred.
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