ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/19/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.1C

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10601 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 5:34 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Shocking to see the Niño 3.4 cool so much during the WWB. It could be a delayed response, but so far this WWB did not do what it needed in order to kick start the Niño into steady growth. We are still in an El Niño for the time being, but with the subsurface quite cool and this downwelling KW not looking very impressive so far, ENSO dropping into warm neutral territory at some point this summer is not out of the question.


Cooling happening east of where the WWB is occurring where the trades are still running above average. The Euro forecast shows that the trades will slow down considerably for the rest of the month so we will likely see Nino 3.4 fluctuate between +0.4C/+0.8C until June.

Slow down considerably? Hasn't the WWB already peaked? It does appear that trades will be relaxed, but the peak of the WWB has already occurred.


You don't need a WWB to slow down trades. A true WWB actually has RAW westerlies not just easterly reduction. Anything else, like yellow or orange shading on the hovmollers, will mean the trades are running below average. The models are forecasting the trades to slow down probably due to the MJO moving into phase 8 (CPAC/EPAC). It's apparent that the trades need to run at a certain Ms to cool surface sea temperatures and I believe with what the Euro and GFS are showing, will not be enough to significantly cool ENSO further. We seen this episode in early 2017 before the La Nada and 2018.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10602 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 13, 2019 6:47 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Shocking to see the Niño 3.4 cool so much during the WWB. It could be a delayed response, but so far this WWB did not do what it needed in order to kick start the Niño into steady growth. We are still in an El Niño for the time being, but with the subsurface quite cool and this downwelling KW not looking very impressive so far, ENSO dropping into warm neutral territory at some point this summer is not out of the question.


Cooling happening east of where the WWB is occurring where the trades are still running above average. The Euro forecast shows that the trades will slow down considerably for the rest of the month so we will likely see Nino 3.4 fluctuate between +0.4C/+0.8C until June.

Slow down considerably? Hasn't the WWB already peaked? It does appear that trades will be relaxed, but the peak of the WWB has already occurred.


I mean based on the EURO they'll stay a few m/s below avg but slowing down considerably is a bit misleading.

The GFS shows very slow trades in the EPAC but those are probably being overdone w/ its CA bias. WWBs that far east tend to be unfavorable for Niño development anyway, as warming in the far EPAC while further west is cooler suppresses Niño feedbacks (for an extreme example of that, see 2017)
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10603 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 13, 2019 6:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Cooling happening east of where the WWB is occurring where the trades are still running above average. The Euro forecast shows that the trades will slow down considerably for the rest of the month so we will likely see Nino 3.4 fluctuate between +0.4C/+0.8C until June.

Slow down considerably? Hasn't the WWB already peaked? It does appear that trades will be relaxed, but the peak of the WWB has already occurred.


You don't need a WWB to slow down trades. A true WWB actually has RAW westerlies not just easterly reduction. Anything else, like yellow or orange shading on the hovmollers, will mean the trades are running below average. The models are forecasting the trades to slow down probably due to the MJO moving into phase 8 (CPAC/EPAC). It's apparent that the trades need to run at a certain Ms to cool surface sea temperatures and I believe with what the Euro and GFS are showing, will not be enough to significantly cool ENSO further. We seen this episode in early 2017 before the La Nada and 2018.


I think the SSTs have the potential to cool some more though, reacting to the cooler subsfc. Especially near 100°W, where little mixing would bring up the cool pool
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/13/19: Big drop for Niño 3.4 from +0.9C last week to +0.5C

#10604 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 13, 2019 7:09 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Slow down considerably? Hasn't the WWB already peaked? It does appear that trades will be relaxed, but the peak of the WWB has already occurred.


You don't need a WWB to slow down trades. A true WWB actually has RAW westerlies not just easterly reduction. Anything else, like yellow or orange shading on the hovmollers, will mean the trades are running below average. The models are forecasting the trades to slow down probably due to the MJO moving into phase 8 (CPAC/EPAC). It's apparent that the trades need to run at a certain Ms to cool surface sea temperatures and I believe with what the Euro and GFS are showing, will not be enough to significantly cool ENSO further. We seen this episode in early 2017 before the La Nada and 2018.


I think the SSTs have the potential to cool some more though, reacting to the cooler subsfc. Especially near 100°W, where little mixing would bring up the cool pool


Yup certainly. Could definitely see it bounce on and off between weak El Nino and warm neutral threshold.
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ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10605 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 14, 2019 8:46 am

BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch.

ENSO Outlook decreased to El Niño WATCH; positive IOD possible
Indicators have been close to El Niño thresholds over the past several months, but signs have emerged of a weakening of these patterns. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been downgraded to El Niño WATCH. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2019 is approximately 50%, which is still double the normal likelihood.

While sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Niño levels, water beneath the surface has slowly cooled over the past few months. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line have generally remained in the neutral range, despite short-term El Niño-like SOI values in the last fortnight.

International models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño thresholds until mid-winter, before cooling in late winter to spring. By August, two of the eight models are clearly at El Niño levels, with another two near El Niño thresholds.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10606 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue May 14, 2019 10:01 am

doesn't surprise me one bit.
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10607 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 14, 2019 10:03 am

We have been here before... would not be surprised to see neutral conditions by August. All in all i think el nino impacts on the Atlantic are not going to be much and we could very well see a slightly to above average yr.
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10608 Postby AnnularCane » Tue May 14, 2019 10:26 am

I've probably asked this question before, but....do we actually have an El Nino or not? They're making it sound like we're not in one, but all this time I thought we were.

Maybe we technically have one but it just hasn't been officially declared?
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10609 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 14, 2019 11:43 am

AnnularCane wrote:I've probably asked this question before, but....do we actually have an El Nino or not? They're making it sound like we're not in one, but all this time I thought we were.

Maybe we technically have one but it just hasn't been officially declared?


According to CPC, we are in one, but according to BOM, we are not. BOM has more stringent criteria
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10610 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 14, 2019 12:21 pm

NotSparta wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:I've probably asked this question before, but....do we actually have an El Nino or not? They're making it sound like we're not in one, but all this time I thought we were.

Maybe we technically have one but it just hasn't been officially declared?


According to CPC, we are in one, but according to BOM, we are not. BOM has more stringent criteria


I believe CPC uses sustained anomalies at or above 0.5C and BOM uses at or above 0.8C. Is that correct?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10611 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 14, 2019 12:25 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:I've probably asked this question before, but....do we actually have an El Nino or not? They're making it sound like we're not in one, but all this time I thought we were.

Maybe we technically have one but it just hasn't been officially declared?


According to CPC, we are in one, but according to BOM, we are not. BOM has more stringent criteria


I believe CPC uses sustained anomalies at or above 0.5C and BOM uses at or above 0.8C. Is that correct?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Yes, that's correct
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10612 Postby AnnularCane » Tue May 14, 2019 3:06 pm

Thanks for clearing that up! I guess I will go with the CPC. 8-)
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10613 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 14, 2019 3:20 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Thanks for clearing that up! I guess I will go with the CPC. 8-)


On top of that, the private sector doesn't really use Nino 3.4 as a gauge for El Nino.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue May 14, 2019 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10614 Postby Ntxw » Tue May 14, 2019 3:21 pm

AnnularCane wrote:I've probably asked this question before, but....do we actually have an El Nino or not? They're making it sound like we're not in one, but all this time I thought we were.

Maybe we technically have one but it just hasn't been officially declared?


We are still in an El Nino. ONI is the official determining value and it is still above 0.5C. Until a 3 month average goes below that, the El Nino has already been declared. We won't know when it will dip below 0.5C until at least July or August at the earliest. It is actually quite different that the past several seasons when neutral or La Nina were kicking up.
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10615 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue May 14, 2019 3:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:I've probably asked this question before, but....do we actually have an El Nino or not? They're making it sound like we're not in one, but all this time I thought we were.

Maybe we technically have one but it just hasn't been officially declared?


We are still in an El Nino. ONI is the official determining value and it is still above 0.5C. Until a 3 month average goes below that, the El Nino has already been declared. We won't know when it will dip below 0.5C until at least July or August at the earliest. It is actually quite different that the past several seasons when neutral or La Nina were kicking up.

Strange pattern we are in. It certainly does not look like an oncoming major El Niño, but it doesn't look like we are headed for cool neutral or La Niña either. What will likely happen is either a transition to warm-neutral or continued weak El Niño conditions.
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10616 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue May 14, 2019 9:27 pm

Interesting that the last 3 years there was a chance of El Niño to form but in all 3 cases (including this year thus far) the chances of El Niño during peak Atlantic hurricane season either faded or are fading.
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10617 Postby StruThiO » Tue May 14, 2019 9:35 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Interesting that the last 3 years there was a chance of El Niño to form but in all 3 cases (including this year thus far) the chances of El Niño during peak Atlantic hurricane season either faded or are fading.


and honestly, i think it makes sense given how recent the super nino was
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Re: ENSO: BoM downgrades to El Niño Watch (Neutral)

#10618 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 15, 2019 7:25 am

Subsurface anomalies all the way down to near +0.1°C, interested to see whether it dips into the negatives briefly

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Re: ENSO: Mark Sudduth El Nino update

#10619 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed May 15, 2019 11:13 am

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Re: ENSO: Mark Sudduth El Nino update

#10620 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 15, 2019 2:16 pm

Mark has great info. I think he's one of the few people speaking sensibly about ENSO. Great video.
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