ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10641 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 3:02 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.


Doesn't seem like that to me. In March they were multiple °C apart, but the current differences can be chalked up to resolution differences

It's almost a 3.5C swing with those PENTAD/GODAS showing -2C @ the surface and the buoys showing a suppressed thermocline with +1.5C in between.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10642 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 17, 2019 3:06 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10643 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 3:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.

Neither subsurface data source looks impressive for an oncoming El Niño though. The CPC graphic now shows subsurface anomalies to be in the negatives, and the TRITON data isn't too much different.

While the ONI will likely remain in El Niño thresholds through at least AMJ, ONI is a 3-month average and does not best represent the current conditions. Unless we get a round of Niño forcing in June, it's likely we dip into warm neutral at least temporarily.


Yeah I agree. Based on current conditions there's an equal possibility we will be in warm neutral for an extended time or remain in weak El Nino. Remember in 2017 we had a shallow thermocline from February 2017-June 2017 and the SST's over Nino 3.4 were hovering near +0.4C/+0.5C until the trades took over in July (or August?).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10644 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 3:18 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10645 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 17, 2019 3:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.


Doesn't seem like that to me. In March they were multiple °C apart, but the current differences can be chalked up to resolution differences

It's almost a 3.5C swing with those PENTAD/GODAS showing -2C @ the surface and the buoys showing a suppressed thermocline with +1.5C in between.


Well, PENTAD has warm anomalies nearby, and a lot of TAO difference can be explained by resolution. In March, there were large differences in large areas
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10646 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 18, 2019 11:05 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10647 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 18, 2019 11:45 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10648 Postby weathaguyry » Sun May 19, 2019 2:48 pm

Image

Regardless of potential future warming, there is a plume of cold anomalies starting to surface around 105W, which will definitely have at least a short term cooling effect. Every CFS forecast shows warming until at least June, which will likely not verify at this point. IMO, something needs to happen pretty soon for the Nino to stick around into Hurricane Season, if not, the 3rd Nino bust in 3 years seems increasingly likely.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10649 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 19, 2019 3:00 pm

weathaguyry wrote:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif

Regardless of potential future warming, there is a plume of cold anomalies starting to surface around 105W, which will definitely have at least a short term cooling effect. Every CFS forecast shows warming until at least June, which will likely not verify at this point. IMO, something needs to happen pretty soon for the Nino to stick around into Hurricane Season, if not, the 3rd Nino bust in 3 years seems increasingly likely.


That CFS fcast shows that because of many old members that predicted a lot of warming due to the WWB. The newer members say that SSTAs should remain steady into June.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10650 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 19, 2019 3:19 pm

The El Niño is taking on a bit of a Modoki look - but it's more the signature of a decaying event, especially given the look of the subsurface.

Image

However it may have some time left w/ the effects from the WWB; would stave off a transition to neutral, which is becoming increasingly likely (I have seen some guidance pointing towards a reemergence of El Niño near the end of the yr, though, but there is considerable disagreement).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10651 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 19, 2019 4:33 pm

NotSparta wrote:The El Niño is taking on a bit of a Modoki look - but it's more the signature of a decaying event, especially given the look of the subsurface.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b2965bdbce404848f306d7750aeb105283b4af8efbdadda2474441dbd3a7a37.png

However it may have some time left w/ the effects from the WWB; would stave off a transition to neutral, which is becoming increasingly likely (I have seen some guidance pointing towards a reemergence of El Niño near the end of the yr, though, but there is considerable disagreement).


Definitely a CPAC based El Nino now although Nino 1+2 needs to be near -1.0C for it to be a true Modoki. Based on the buoys, the WWB did trigger a downwelling Kelvin wave which is currently eroding the western periphery of the upwelling Kelvin wave, and I think there will be enough warmth there to keep Nino 4 and possibly Nino 3.4 @ weak Nino levels through June and likely July.
Nino 3 and 1+2 will likely be at warm Neutral or Neutral levels until something changes.

Important to see how the background state evolves through May and June. CFS shows El Nino forcing remaining through the length of its forecast and interestingly spread some -VP200 anomalies over the EPAC. This is important because it all ties into the Walker circulation. If a raising branch situates over the EPAC rather than the CPAC, it'll likely mean more sinking motion over areas in the Atlantic.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10652 Postby NDG » Mon May 20, 2019 6:45 am

Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10653 Postby SoupBone » Mon May 20, 2019 9:18 am

NDG wrote:Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C


This is not my area of knowledge at all, but Nino 3.4 at +0.7C would indicate El Nino positive again? Is there a layman's reading on this?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10654 Postby NDG » Mon May 20, 2019 9:43 am

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C


This is not my area of knowledge at all, but Nino 3.4 at +0.7C would indicate El Nino positive again? Is there a layman's reading on this?


As an average it has been a weak El Nino since it started in late Fall, if anything this shows that it continues to remain a central based EL Nino and not the traditional eastern based El Ninos which cause even more windshear fro the Atlantic Basin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10655 Postby Chris90 » Mon May 20, 2019 11:51 am

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C


This is not my area of knowledge at all, but Nino 3.4 at +0.7C would indicate El Nino positive again? Is there a layman's reading on this?


+0.7C is in the weak Nino range, but they don't make calls based on week-to-week evolutions, you have to look at the trimonthlies, the average temp in the 3.4 region averaged over 3 months. So far this year it has been right around +0.8C, so we'll have to see what the average is with the MAM (March-April-May) update.
Here's the ranges
0.0-0.5C warm neutral
0.5-1.0C weak Nino
1.0-1.5C moderate Nino
1.5-2.0C strong Nino
2.0C+ super Nino

It goes the same way for La Nina, just with negative values instead.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10656 Postby StruThiO » Mon May 20, 2019 11:59 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10657 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 20, 2019 12:12 pm

Wow we have come a long way from a very slow season or should i say " normal " to a possibly above average season. Could see some seasonal outlooks busts
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10658 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 20, 2019 12:28 pm



Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10659 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 20, 2019 1:06 pm

NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1130517573102133249[url]


Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline


Its continuing a pattern we've seen since last year September. These tweets create some sort of confusion, as the start of this current El Nino was during the fall while there was quite a bit of sinking motion over the WPAC (based on that Ventrice graphic).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10660 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 20, 2019 1:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1130517573102133249[url]


Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline


Its continuing a pattern we've seen since last year September. These tweets create some sort of confusion, as the start of this current El Nino was during the fall while there was quite a bit of sinking motion over the WPAC (based on that Ventrice graphic).


Looks new to me - the standing wave was in a canonical position until January
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