ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10661 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 20, 2019 2:23 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline


Its continuing a pattern we've seen since last year September. These tweets create some sort of confusion, as the start of this current El Nino was during the fall while there was quite a bit of sinking motion over the WPAC (based on that Ventrice graphic).

Looks new to me - the standing wave was in a canonical position until January


Bunch of yellow situated over the WPAC if you look at that graphic dating to last fall. Thats when he was tweeting about his atmospheric index being in La Nina, around that period if you recall.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10662 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 21, 2019 3:56 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10663 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 22, 2019 1:54 am

Highly doubt El Niño will be a factor this year. Subsurface temps are not warm in the Epac. WWB failed to do much for El Niño. I think a lot of the preseason forecasts will bust badly. This year is similar to 2017- early on there is the prediction of an El Niño- but the season turns out hyperactive. I think we will be over active to hyperactive this year.

Note- I am a meteorology student but not a professional so please use the official National Hurricane Center forecasts for planning purposes.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Wed May 22, 2019 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10665 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 22, 2019 10:16 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10666 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 22, 2019 2:05 pm

Will be time to bring out bones soon... the WWB did not do as much as we'd hoped, I don't see anything major helping El Niño until mid June
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10667 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 22, 2019 2:23 pm

A transition to ENSO-neutral is looking more and more likely by fall. I'd guess the CPC lowers El Nino chances of persisting in their June update, unless something significantly changes.

ONI will likely remain above +0.5C through at least MJJ and possibly longer - but that's to be expected, since ONI is a three-month average and does not always reflect the current conditions.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10668 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 22, 2019 4:30 pm

CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10669 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 22, 2019 6:46 pm

Kingarabian wrote:CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.


I'm not sure the entire EWB is west of the dateline, as it seems to be propagation from the Indian Ocean. But yeah looks less favorable for cooling than the last.

Also, if there is a following WWB, we better hope that it does more than the last two, as we've leaned on those for El Niño strengthening/continuing yet neither delivered
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10670 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 22, 2019 6:55 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.


I'm not sure the entire EWB is west of the dateline, as it seems to be propagation from the Indian Ocean. But yeah looks less favorable for cooling than the last.

Also, if there is a following WWB, we better hope that it does more than the last two, as we've leaned on those for El Niño strengthening/continuing yet neither delivered


Last weeks 5 day average @ Nino 3.4 was above +0.5C, and so will this week, so regardless of fluctuations I think the last/current WWB has made a case for weak El Nino to continue into the summer. But I think it's pretty much it strength wise.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10671 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 22, 2019 7:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CFS has been showing the suppressed stage of the MJO hitting the Pacific for about a week now. Atmospherically, it disrupts the standing El Nino wave situated over the CPAC and then builds it back closer to the EPAC in mid-june. We'll see if the latter occurs.

Trade bursts west of the dateline are tricky, especially if we recall what happened in 2017. They don't always affect Nino's negatively compared to the trade bursts over the dateline/CPAC. Similar to how WWB's don't always induce warming when they're west of the dateline. That being said, it'll attempt to push the thermocline up beneath Nino 4 and force Nino 4 to cool. Will it cool to neutral levels? Who knows. +1C anoms comfortably extend to 100M in that region and there will likely be a WWB that will follow as soon as the MJO crosses back into the Pacific.

This continues the seesawing back and forth that we've been seeing lately.


I'm not sure the entire EWB is west of the dateline, as it seems to be propagation from the Indian Ocean. But yeah looks less favorable for cooling than the last.

Also, if there is a following WWB, we better hope that it does more than the last two, as we've leaned on those for El Niño strengthening/continuing yet neither delivered


Last weeks 5 day average @ Nino 3.4 was above +0.5C, and so will this week, so regardless of fluctuations I think the last/current WWB has made a case for weak El Nino to continue into the summer. But I think it's pretty much it strength wise.


Oh, I don't disagree w/ that. Will be close to borderline, I think
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10672 Postby StruThiO » Sat May 25, 2019 9:44 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10673 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 25, 2019 9:50 am

StruThiO wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132293829271392257[/rl]

Apparently we haven't been in an El Nino since March based on that graph
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10674 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 25, 2019 10:05 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10675 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 25, 2019 10:29 am

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132293829271392257[/rl]

Apparently we haven't been in an El Nino since March based on that graph


Seems that when the graph started to head to neutral is about the same time as when everything started underperforming wrt El Niño strengthening thru the yr
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10676 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 25, 2019 3:47 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132293829271392257[/rl]

Apparently we haven't been in an El Nino since March based on that graph


Seems that when the graph started to head to neutral is about the same time as when everything started underperforming wrt El Niño strengthening thru the yr

I'm not sure what data is used for this particular graph but it seems that it's just continuing the status-quo which is weak El Nino or possibly warm neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10677 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 26, 2019 4:06 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10678 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sun May 26, 2019 4:15 pm



Seems the WWB did have an effect after all. Explains why NOAA expects the Nino to last through the summer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10679 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 26, 2019 5:56 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:


Seems the WWB did have an effect after all. Explains why NOAA expects the Nino to last through the summer.


Had a pretty significant effect IMO. Thermocline is now suppressed below Nino 3. Flipped widespread -1C/-1.5C anomalies to +1C/+1.5C and the upwelling Kelvin wave looks weakened considerably compared to the beginning of the month.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10680 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 26, 2019 6:55 pm

Looks like time is running out. While it has an effect & downwelling KW, it's been underwhelming, and there's not much going for +ENSO until mid June. It's already not doing so well and another 3 weeks w/o significant forcing sure isn't a good way to sustain an El Niño.
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