NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:
CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:
So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.
I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.
I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run
One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.