ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10701 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 29, 2019 6:31 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:
https://i.imgur.com/FniTWBW.png

CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/UplNhlo.png

So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.


I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.

I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run


One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10702 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 29, 2019 6:38 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:
https://i.imgur.com/FniTWBW.png

CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/UplNhlo.png

So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.


I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.

I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run


One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.


True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10703 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 29, 2019 6:49 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
I think the GFS solution is more damaging to El Niño. A dateline EWB is something you see in cool ENSO, and would excite another upwelling KW (possibly). The near normal trades further east would keep the area from being too cool but the KW lurking below would still keep SSTs down.

I agree w/ your second point, the EPAC would get quite cold but would be more favorable for warm ENSO in the long run


One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.


True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left


It's very possible the thermocline rises in that region and we see those warm anomalies disappear, but if we're continuing the same MJO setup since late April and through most of May, another WWB will be in the works and also will likely rewarm the Nino regions. To break this pattern we need the MJO to amplify over the MC and trigger another trade burst vs. having the MJO end up back over the Pacific ocean.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10704 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 29, 2019 6:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
One of the reasons why I don't think the GFS solution will be as damaging is due to the deep warm +1C/+1.5C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Also both 2016 and 2017 had similar trade burst setups only for cooling to be very slow to occur.
If it gets to the CPAC with stronger easterlies than currently forecast it would be quite damaging.


True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left


It's very possible the thermocline rises in that region and we see those warm anomalies disappear, but if we're continuing the same MJO setup since late April and through most of May, another WWB will be in the works and also will likely rewarm the Nino regions. To break this pattern we need the MJO to amplify over the MC and trigger another trade burst vs. having the MJO end up back over the Pacific ocean.



It would be consistent w/ the recent pattern. Despite the WWBs the upper ocean anomalies have fallen 1.5°C. The EWBs have had a bigger effect lately.

Anyway, that's exactly what the GFS does. It has rising air setting up over the MC region w/ dateline sinking. That's a -ENSO pattern, which is why the GFS shows a trade burst. Also, it's proof that this event is weakening. This MJO pulse was strong, which helped it, but still, the standing wave was steamrolled unusually easily, & this upcoming -ENSO pattern which the GFS predicts starts the EWB is unusually sticky unless it suddenly changes after the fcst period

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10705 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 29, 2019 7:30 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
True, might be moreso if it were shifted east. But the easterlies over the warm anomalies would help pretty much erase them, so then there would be absolutely no fuel left


It's very possible the thermocline rises in that region and we see those warm anomalies disappear, but if we're continuing the same MJO setup since late April and through most of May, another WWB will be in the works and also will likely rewarm the Nino regions. To break this pattern we need the MJO to amplify over the MC and trigger another trade burst vs. having the MJO end up back over the Pacific ocean.



It would be consistent w/ the recent pattern. Despite the WWBs the upper ocean anomalies have fallen 1.5°C. The EWBs have had a bigger effect lately.

Anyway, that's exactly what the GFS does. It has rising air setting up over the MC region w/ dateline sinking. That's a -ENSO pattern, which is why the GFS shows a trade burst. Also, it's proof that this event is weakening. This MJO pulse was strong, which helped it, but still, the standing wave was steamrolled unusually easily, & this upcoming -ENSO pattern which the GFS predicts starts the EWB is unusually sticky unless it suddenly changes after the fcst period

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c22fca9f8f18dedd4079983fa91e57c8c66760384a38bbbf7d53044679158b1.gif[url]


Don't forget that this is rather a weak event and the standing wave will likely pulsate on and off.

I see this EWB triggered due to the MJO amplifying over the IO (60E). On this graphic, it shows It has rising motion concentrated over 90% of the IO with a slight amount over the MC, with -VP200 anomalies later spreading into the WPAC due to MJO progression.

CFS's forecasts go further out, and show the same although a weaker pulse over the IO, disrupts the present standing wave then has -VP200 anomalies returning over the CPAC:
Image

Also the CFS continue to showsa classic El Nino atmosphere with rising air situated more east.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10706 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 30, 2019 11:48 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10707 Postby OURAGAN » Thu May 30, 2019 1:27 pm

[*]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10708 Postby OURAGAN » Thu May 30, 2019 1:28 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10710 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 31, 2019 6:35 am

:uarrow:

Yeah it's not so clear yet but the warmest scenario so far looks like maintenance. More likely, however, there is some cooling going on there esp w/ interference from Africa & EHem monsoons beginning
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10711 Postby NDG » Fri May 31, 2019 10:00 am

I mentioned this to the pros on twitter that even though the latest Euro is still showing El Nino to continue through Fall the trend from its ensembles is that more of them are going to the warm neutral to weak El Nino category and lets not forget how warm biased the Euro is when it come to forecasting ENSO conditions this time of the year.


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10712 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 31, 2019 10:23 am

The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.

Image

The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.

The continental United States recently finished its soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern recordkeeping. The results are visible in satellite measurements of fresh water.

From May 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019, the lower 48 states collectively averaged 36.20 inches (919.48 millimeters) of precipitation, a full 6.25 inches (158.75 mm) above the mean. The previous record (April 2015 to March 2016) was 35.95 inches. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, ten U.S. states had their wettest 12 months, and three others were in the top three. Many of them were clustered in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

According to the May 21 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, just 2.72 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, among the lowest levels in two decades of records. California is completely out of drought for the first time since 2011. As recently as February 2018, one-third of the United States was in drought.


https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10713 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 31, 2019 10:48 am

NDG wrote:I mentioned this to the pros on twitter that even though the latest Euro is still showing El Nino to continue through Fall the trend from its ensembles is that more of them are going to the warm neutral to weak El Nino category and lets not forget how warm biased the Euro is when it come to forecasting ENSO conditions this time of the year.


https://i.imgur.com/yTZhQWN.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Odczbn9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/fsaYei3.jpg


Yes we'll have to see what the June forecast is
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10714 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 3:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/d9/30/iF8nMiXd_o.gif[url]

The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.

The continental United States recently finished its soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern recordkeeping. The results are visible in satellite measurements of fresh water.

From May 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019, the lower 48 states collectively averaged 36.20 inches (919.48 millimeters) of precipitation, a full 6.25 inches (158.75 mm) above the mean. The previous record (April 2015 to March 2016) was 35.95 inches. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, ten U.S. states had their wettest 12 months, and three others were in the top three. Many of them were clustered in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

According to the May 21 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, just 2.72 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, among the lowest levels in two decades of records. California is completely out of drought for the first time since 2011. As recently as February 2018, one-third of the United States was in drought.


https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101

Agreed.

I would say 50/50 chance of ENSO going into neutral or remaining in weak El Nino by fall. Good chance we go into neutral if this upcoming trade surge does the job. If it fails to cool the subsurface significantly and a WWB follows it, there's a good chance we remain in weak El Nino past the fall. I think at this point in time both options are on the table.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10715 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 31, 2019 4:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/d9/30/iF8nMiXd_o.gif[url]

The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.

The continental United States recently finished its soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern recordkeeping. The results are visible in satellite measurements of fresh water.

From May 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019, the lower 48 states collectively averaged 36.20 inches (919.48 millimeters) of precipitation, a full 6.25 inches (158.75 mm) above the mean. The previous record (April 2015 to March 2016) was 35.95 inches. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, ten U.S. states had their wettest 12 months, and three others were in the top three. Many of them were clustered in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

According to the May 21 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, just 2.72 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, among the lowest levels in two decades of records. California is completely out of drought for the first time since 2011. As recently as February 2018, one-third of the United States was in drought.


https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101

Agreed.

I would say 50/50 chance of ENSO going into neutral or remaining in weak El Nino by fall. Good chance we go into neutral if this upcoming trade surge does the job. If it fails to cool the subsurface significantly and a WWB follows it, there's a good chance we remain in weak El Nino past the fall. I think at this point in time both options are on the table.


Agree, but leaning a bit towards the former. The EWB trended stronger, especially east of the dateline. Would help the upwelling KW surface & arrest the downwelling KW. Really depends what the EWB does though

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10716 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 4:48 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The next few months through early fall will be defined as weak modoki El Nino. ONI will hold >0.5C at least for two more trimonthlies. Daily SOI leans more negative towards El Nino but that has some noise, also some lag effect. The longer term SOI are tilted negative, which is indicative of weak Nino.

A good bet is for persistence the next few months then gradually ease into neutral.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/d9/30/iF8nMiXd_o.gif[url]

The US, jolted a lot by the plains and California has experienced the wettest 12 month period on record.



https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=145101

Agreed.

I would say 50/50 chance of ENSO going into neutral or remaining in weak El Nino by fall. Good chance we go into neutral if this upcoming trade surge does the job. If it fails to cool the subsurface significantly and a WWB follows it, there's a good chance we remain in weak El Nino past the fall. I think at this point in time both options are on the table.


Agree, but leaning a bit towards the former. The EWB trended stronger, especially east of the dateline. Would help the upwelling KW surface & arrest the downwelling KW. Really depends what the EWB does though

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6760db30dff2a263141991d12cc267de2006837186257237ab2dfacc4d13ee0b.gif[url]


GFS trending stronger due to increased amplification over phase 3 while the Euro and CFS flatline and go into the circle after phase 2. It'll come down to if the models push the MJO back over the Pacific or not, which we won't know until about another 2 weeks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10717 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 4:57 pm

This 90 day hovmoller nicely illustrates the pattern we've been in since January:
Image

So it's not out of the realm to assume that there is potential for a WWB to follow this trade surge.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10718 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 31, 2019 5:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Agreed.

I would say 50/50 chance of ENSO going into neutral or remaining in weak El Nino by fall. Good chance we go into neutral if this upcoming trade surge does the job. If it fails to cool the subsurface significantly and a WWB follows it, there's a good chance we remain in weak El Nino past the fall. I think at this point in time both options are on the table.


Agree, but leaning a bit towards the former. The EWB trended stronger, especially east of the dateline. Would help the upwelling KW surface & arrest the downwelling KW. Really depends what the EWB does though

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6760db30dff2a263141991d12cc267de2006837186257237ab2dfacc4d13ee0b.gif[url]


GFS trending stronger due to increased amplification over phase 3 while the Euro and CFS flatline and go into the circle after phase 2. It'll come down to if the models push the MJO back over the Pacific or not, which we won't know until about another 2 weeks.


I've noticed the CFS has a Pacific bias, by the way. May not be very wise to lean on it
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10719 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 5:08 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Agree, but leaning a bit towards the former. The EWB trended stronger, especially east of the dateline. Would help the upwelling KW surface & arrest the downwelling KW. Really depends what the EWB does though

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6760db30dff2a263141991d12cc267de2006837186257237ab2dfacc4d13ee0b.gif[url]


GFS trending stronger due to increased amplification over phase 3 while the Euro and CFS flatline and go into the circle after phase 2. It'll come down to if the models push the MJO back over the Pacific or not, which we won't know until about another 2 weeks.


I've noticed the CFS has a Pacific bias, by the way. May not be very wise to lean on it

If you look back at the RMM plots since late winter into spring, the CFS and Euro had similar forecasts while the GFS would always be the outlier. I thought it did a great job predicting this May WWB even though it was a bit overdone.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10720 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 31, 2019 7:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
GFS trending stronger due to increased amplification over phase 3 while the Euro and CFS flatline and go into the circle after phase 2. It'll come down to if the models push the MJO back over the Pacific or not, which we won't know until about another 2 weeks.


I've noticed the CFS has a Pacific bias, by the way. May not be very wise to lean on it

If you look back at the RMM plots since late winter into spring, the CFS and Euro had similar forecasts while the GFS would always be the outlier. I thought it did a great job predicting this May WWB even though it was a bit overdone.


Except if it overdid the WWB, doesn't that kind of prove the aforementioned bias? Even if it's not as strong as usual
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