Kingarabian wrote: NotSparta wrote:
Has anyone brought out Bones for an El Niño?
Really lol. IMO not really or anytime soon. As a result of the month long May WWB: The buoys show a very healthy amount of +1C anomalies extending down 130 meters deep that covers the entire Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions, and they also show a area of +2C anomalies near 120W-100W expanding -- while the current upwelling Kelvin wave portion beneath the dateline and into the EPAC is now almost completely eroded. If you look at today's RMM plots, models look to be repeating what happened in April and May by showing hints of swinging the MJO all the way around again.
So even if a new upwelling Kelvin wave was triggered as Tyler Stanfield is pointing out, I think we should be cautious to say it will be the demise of this El Nino until SST's actually respond and winds become predominately easterly.
1. Oceanic Kelvin waves typically need about 2 months to reach the EPAC when they originate in the far WPAC, so whose to say there wont be another WWB in the meantime? One more true WWB event and by default (time) this El Nino will last into the winter.
2. For a quick transition out of El Nino into cool Neutral this upwelling Kelvin wave would need cooler anomalies than the one we saw in late April AND 850mb winds need to be supportive.
Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.
Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB.
Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date.
Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.
It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.
If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around.
Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.
Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.
As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.
The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.
But, we shall see who is correct!