ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10721 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 9:24 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
I've noticed the CFS has a Pacific bias, by the way. May not be very wise to lean on it

If you look back at the RMM plots since late winter into spring, the CFS and Euro had similar forecasts while the GFS would always be the outlier. I thought it did a great job predicting this May WWB even though it was a bit overdone.


Except if it overdid the WWB, doesn't that kind of prove the aforementioned bias? Even if it's not as strong as usual


Im speaking in general. The CFS has warm biases all over and I think Joe Bastardi pointed it out in one his videos. Thats why they have so many versions of it and the PDF corrected one.

But to put it in perspective, the CFS and Euro showed relaxed trades across the CPAC and EPAC while the GFS was showing above average trades in the same region. Remember the GFS also had a longer and stronger trade surge due to its false forecast of the MJO amplifying over the MC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10722 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 31, 2019 9:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:If you look back at the RMM plots since late winter into spring, the CFS and Euro had similar forecasts while the GFS would always be the outlier. I thought it did a great job predicting this May WWB even though it was a bit overdone.


Except if it overdid the WWB, doesn't that kind of prove the aforementioned bias? Even if it's not as strong as usual


Im speaking in general. The CFS has warm biases all over and I think Joe Bastardi pointed it out in one his videos. Thats why they have so many versions of it and the PDF corrected one.

But to put it in perspective, the CFS and Euro showed relaxed trades across the CPAC and EPAC while the GFS was showing above average trades in the same region. Remember the GFS also had a longer and trade surge due to its false forecast of the MJO amplifying over the MC.


True. This upcoming trade burst is higher confidence though however given close range
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10723 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 9:52 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Except if it overdid the WWB, doesn't that kind of prove the aforementioned bias? Even if it's not as strong as usual


Im speaking in general. The CFS has warm biases all over and I think Joe Bastardi pointed it out in one his videos. Thats why they have so many versions of it and the PDF corrected one.

But to put it in perspective, the CFS and Euro showed relaxed trades across the CPAC and EPAC while the GFS was showing above average trades in the same region. Remember the GFS also had a longer and trade surge due to its false forecast of the MJO amplifying over the MC.


True. This upcoming trade burst is higher confidence though however given close range


Yup have westerly anomalies slowed down considerably and the winds will shift to predominately easterly in a couple of days.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10724 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:11 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10725 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:14 pm

Has anyone brought out Bones for an El Niño? :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10726 Postby OURAGAN » Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:28 pm

Very interesting
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10727 Postby OURAGAN » Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:34 pm

I think Dr Gray will increase his number
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10728 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:39 pm

OURAGAN wrote:I think Dr Gray will increase his number


Well he is in a better place.His beloved partner Phil Klotzbach is doing the forecasts.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10729 Postby OURAGAN » Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:49 pm

Excuse me, i remember Dr Gray, i respected him, now it’s Philipp
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10730 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:53 pm

NotSparta wrote:Has anyone brought out Bones for an El Niño? :lol:


:roflmao: Okay, THAT'S funny!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10731 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:15 pm

NotSparta wrote:Has anyone brought out Bones for an El Niño? :lol:


Really lol. IMO not really or anytime soon. As a result of the month long May WWB: The buoys show a very healthy amount of +1C anomalies extending down 130 meters deep that covers the entire Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions, and they also show a area of +2C anomalies near 120W-100W expanding -- while the current upwelling Kelvin wave portion beneath the dateline and into the EPAC is now almost completely eroded. If you look at today's RMM plots, models look to be repeating what happened in April and May by showing hints of swinging the MJO all the way around again.

So even if a new upwelling Kelvin wave was triggered as Tyler Stanfield is pointing out, I think we should be cautious to say it will be the demise of this El Nino until SST's actually respond and winds become predominately easterly.
Because:
1. Oceanic Kelvin waves typically need about 2 months to reach the EPAC when they originate in the far WPAC, so whose to say there wont be another WWB in the meantime? One more true WWB event and by default (time) this El Nino will last into the winter.
2. For a quick transition out of El Nino into cool Neutral this upwelling Kelvin wave would need cooler anomalies than the one we saw in late April AND 850mb winds need to be supportive.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10732 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Has anyone brought out Bones for an El Niño? :lol:


Really lol. IMO not really or anytime soon. As a result of the month long May WWB: The buoys show a very healthy amount of +1C anomalies extending down 130 meters deep that covers the entire Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions, and they also show a area of +2C anomalies near 120W-100W expanding -- while the current upwelling Kelvin wave portion beneath the dateline and into the EPAC is now almost completely eroded. If you look at today's RMM plots, models look to be repeating what happened in April and May by showing hints of swinging the MJO all the way around again.

So even if a new upwelling Kelvin wave was triggered as Tyler Stanfield is pointing out, I think we should be cautious to say it will be the demise of this El Nino until SST's actually respond and winds become predominately easterly.
Because:
1. Oceanic Kelvin waves typically need about 2 months to reach the EPAC when they originate in the far WPAC, so whose to say there wont be another WWB in the meantime? One more true WWB event and by default (time) this El Nino will last into the winter.
2. For a quick transition out of El Nino into cool Neutral this upwelling Kelvin wave would need cooler anomalies than the one we saw in late April AND 850mb winds need to be supportive.


Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.

Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB.

Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date.

Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.

It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.

If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around.

Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.

Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.

As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.

The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.

But, we shall see who is correct! :)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10733 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:14 pm

Keep this great discussion going as it helps our members learn more about all the factors in favor or against El Niño involved in the ENSO question
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10734 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:25 pm

If I had to take a guess on what's going to happen with this El Nino, I'd say slow decay of this event, but not a rapid transition to -ENSO like we commonly see during El Nino. This upcoming EWB looks strong and will likely persist for a little while. There has been some warming of the subsurface recently, which is to be expected of a WWB. However, this subsurface warm pool doesn't look particularly impressive, and there already appears to be a new cold pool building in the western Pacific. Unless we get another strong WWB, which likely wouldn't occur until late June, if at all, I think it's likely we dip back into warm neutral territory, at least temporarily. We nearly fell to warm neutral levels in mid-May before the WWB really had an effect.

One thing we are still seeing that is still reminiscent of El Nino is a sustained -SOI. SOI has been consistently negative for the past few months, and the 30 day average is at -8. It will be interesting to see how much the SOI rises with this EWB - wouldn't surprise me if June has a positive SOI average. ENSO models have recently been trending cooler. One possibility is that we briefly dip into warm neutral levels for the summer before seeing regrowth of El Nino in fall. Another possibility is El Nino steadily weakens and we could be looking at near-neutral ENSO by the end of the year. Will be interesting to see what happens! If the Nino does persist, I'm expecting it to be more of a west-based event.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10735 Postby Chris90 » Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:Keep this great discussion going as it helps our members learn more about all the factors in favor or against El Niño involved in the ENSO question


This. I think I've learned more in the past 3-4 months from diligently reading this thread more so than anything else. Shout outs to Kingarabian and NotSparta because I've really been enjoying their analysis and back-and-forth debates/discussions.
This ENSO event has been like watching the superbowl for tropical weather enthusiasts.
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Goodbye to a record setting winter, hello springtime severe season! :sun:

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10736 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:35 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Has anyone brought out Bones for an El Niño? :lol:


Really lol. IMO not really or anytime soon. As a result of the month long May WWB: The buoys show a very healthy amount of +1C anomalies extending down 130 meters deep that covers the entire Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions, and they also show a area of +2C anomalies near 120W-100W expanding -- while the current upwelling Kelvin wave portion beneath the dateline and into the EPAC is now almost completely eroded. If you look at today's RMM plots, models look to be repeating what happened in April and May by showing hints of swinging the MJO all the way around again.

So even if a new upwelling Kelvin wave was triggered as Tyler Stanfield is pointing out, I think we should be cautious to say it will be the demise of this El Nino until SST's actually respond and winds become predominately easterly.
Because:
1. Oceanic Kelvin waves typically need about 2 months to reach the EPAC when they originate in the far WPAC, so whose to say there wont be another WWB in the meantime? One more true WWB event and by default (time) this El Nino will last into the winter.
2. For a quick transition out of El Nino into cool Neutral this upwelling Kelvin wave would need cooler anomalies than the one we saw in late April AND 850mb winds need to be supportive.


Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.

Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB.

Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date.

Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.

It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.

If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around.

Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.

Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.

As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.

The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.

But, we shall see who is correct! :)


Yeah there is a large difference between the buoys and the CPC graphics but only in regards to the +2C swath setting up below Nino 3. The PENTAD graphics will update soon though I wonder if they will be in better agreement then.

We would be following 2005 very nicely if the MJO amplified over the IO and then spent its time in June dead in the circle. But the key difference now is we're seeing progression towards phases 4/5/6 and eventually the Pacific. Also looking at the subsurface, 2005 is no longer an analog. 2017 still remains a decent analog at the subsurface but in regards to 850mb winds, its way off, and similar to 2005, it has the MJO in the circle for the month of June.

There is quite a bit of sinking motion moving across the Pacific and there is more rising air near the MC but the bulk of these -VP200 anomalies sit over the IO. The only time I'm going to consider that the atmosphere is switching out of El Nino and into neutral is if sinking air situates over the dateline, or rising air situates over the MC for 45-60 days. Remember for it to be considered a standing wave, the branch should be visible for about 60-90 days uninterrupted.

I don't disagree in regards to the rising motion over Africa vs El Nino. Big reason why I expect similar numbers to last year for the Atlantic hurricane season.

This is where I completely disagree lol. I believe this WWB was pretty significant in that it bought the El Nino much more time compared to La Nada's in 2005 and 2017 that did not have WWB's in May. Based on the buoys, It replaced -2C anomalies with +2C anomalies beneath Nino 3 and expanded +1C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 down to 130 meters. So yeah this does appear to be a continuation of the pattern we've seen since spring. I think we'll see noticeable cooling of the subsurface followed by re-warming and thus the product is a weak El Nino or warm neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10737 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:42 pm

Regardless of what happens 2 or 3 months down the road (statistically the earliest we could be out of the Nino, should it fall) tomorrow's weekly reading will hover +0.7 to 0.8C. The last weekly reading all areas were above +0.5C. So as of today, the first week of June, there is still an El Nino.

It had a brief stint early May that got down to 0.5C and created a flurry of action that it was going to be the demise, but since then a lot of discussion however has recovered.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10738 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:44 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:If I had to take a guess on what's going to happen with this El Nino, I'd say slow decay of this event, but not a rapid transition to -ENSO like we commonly see during El Nino. This upcoming EWB looks strong and will likely persist for a little while. There has been some warming of the subsurface recently, which is to be expected of a WWB. However, this subsurface warm pool doesn't look particularly impressive, and there already appears to be a new cold pool building in the western Pacific. Unless we get another strong WWB, which likely wouldn't occur until late June, if at all, I think it's likely we dip back into warm neutral territory, at least temporarily. We nearly fell to warm neutral levels in mid-May before the WWB really had an effect.

One thing we are still seeing that is still reminiscent of El Nino is a sustained -SOI. SOI has been consistently negative for the past few months, and the 30 day average is at -8. It will be interesting to see how much the SOI rises with this EWB - wouldn't surprise me if June has a positive SOI average. ENSO models have recently been trending cooler. One possibility is that we briefly dip into warm neutral levels for the summer before seeing regrowth of El Nino in fall. Another possibility is El Nino steadily weakens and we could be looking at near-neutral ENSO by the end of the year. Will be interesting to see what happens! If the Nino does persist, I'm expecting it to be more of a west-based event.


Agreed, solid take.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10739 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Really lol. IMO not really or anytime soon. As a result of the month long May WWB: The buoys show a very healthy amount of +1C anomalies extending down 130 meters deep that covers the entire Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions, and they also show a area of +2C anomalies near 120W-100W expanding -- while the current upwelling Kelvin wave portion beneath the dateline and into the EPAC is now almost completely eroded. If you look at today's RMM plots, models look to be repeating what happened in April and May by showing hints of swinging the MJO all the way around again.

So even if a new upwelling Kelvin wave was triggered as Tyler Stanfield is pointing out, I think we should be cautious to say it will be the demise of this El Nino until SST's actually respond and winds become predominately easterly.
Because:
1. Oceanic Kelvin waves typically need about 2 months to reach the EPAC when they originate in the far WPAC, so whose to say there wont be another WWB in the meantime? One more true WWB event and by default (time) this El Nino will last into the winter.
2. For a quick transition out of El Nino into cool Neutral this upwelling Kelvin wave would need cooler anomalies than the one we saw in late April AND 850mb winds need to be supportive.


Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.

Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB.

Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date.

Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.

It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.

If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around.

Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.

Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.

As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.

The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.

But, we shall see who is correct! :)


Yeah there is a large difference between the buoys and the CPC graphics but only in regards to the +2C swath setting up below Nino 3. The PENTAD graphics will update soon though I wonder if they will be in better agreement then.

We would be following 2005 very nicely if the MJO amplified over the IO and then spent its time in June dead in the circle. But the key difference now is we're seeing progression towards phases 4/5/6 and eventually the Pacific. Also looking at the subsurface, 2005 is no longer an analog. 2017 still remains a decent analog at the subsurface but in regards to 850mb winds, its way off, and similar to 2005, it has the MJO in the circle for the month of June.

There is quite a bit of sinking motion moving across the Pacific and there is more rising air near the MC but the bulk of these -VP200 anomalies sit over the IO. The only time I'm going to consider that the atmosphere is switching out of El Nino and into neutral is if sinking air situates over the dateline, or rising air situates over the MC for 45-60 days. Remember for it to be considered a standing wave, the branch should be visible for about 60-90 days uninterrupted.

I don't disagree in regards to the rising motion over Africa vs El Nino. Big reason why I expect similar numbers to last year for the Atlantic hurricane season.

This is where I completely disagree lol. I believe this WWB was pretty significant in that it bought the El Nino much more time compared to La Nada's in 2005 and 2017 that did not have WWB's in May. Based on the buoys, It replaced -2C anomalies with +2C anomalies beneath Nino 3 and expanded +1C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 down to 130 meters. So yeah this does appear to be a continuation of the pattern we've seen since spring. I think we'll see noticeable cooling of the subsurface followed by re-warming and thus the product is a weak El Nino or warm neutral.


Ok, so we seem to agree about the future of ENSO, but we still disagree here lol

Well, that's what the models want to do mid June, strong MJO in the IO and then becoming weaker. I still think it will remain strong however.

Yes, but either way, the trades are enhanced, which means a likelier transition due to cooler SSTs. This then feedbacks to weaken the standing wave.

Well, that's pretty normal for an upwelling KW -> downwelling KW.

The pattern we've seen since spring is for Niño conditions to underperform, though :P

Problem is, it's not quite a periodic function. The cooling far outweighs the warming, even w/ the downwelling. This wouldn't quite support a continuation of El Niño
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10740 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:40 am

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.

Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB.

Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date.

Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.

It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.

If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around.

Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.

Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.

As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.

The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.

But, we shall see who is correct! :)


Yeah there is a large difference between the buoys and the CPC graphics but only in regards to the +2C swath setting up below Nino 3. The PENTAD graphics will update soon though I wonder if they will be in better agreement then.

We would be following 2005 very nicely if the MJO amplified over the IO and then spent its time in June dead in the circle. But the key difference now is we're seeing progression towards phases 4/5/6 and eventually the Pacific. Also looking at the subsurface, 2005 is no longer an analog. 2017 still remains a decent analog at the subsurface but in regards to 850mb winds, its way off, and similar to 2005, it has the MJO in the circle for the month of June.

There is quite a bit of sinking motion moving across the Pacific and there is more rising air near the MC but the bulk of these -VP200 anomalies sit over the IO. The only time I'm going to consider that the atmosphere is switching out of El Nino and into neutral is if sinking air situates over the dateline, or rising air situates over the MC for 45-60 days. Remember for it to be considered a standing wave, the branch should be visible for about 60-90 days uninterrupted.

I don't disagree in regards to the rising motion over Africa vs El Nino. Big reason why I expect similar numbers to last year for the Atlantic hurricane season.

This is where I completely disagree lol. I believe this WWB was pretty significant in that it bought the El Nino much more time compared to La Nada's in 2005 and 2017 that did not have WWB's in May. Based on the buoys, It replaced -2C anomalies with +2C anomalies beneath Nino 3 and expanded +1C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 down to 130 meters. So yeah this does appear to be a continuation of the pattern we've seen since spring. I think we'll see noticeable cooling of the subsurface followed by re-warming and thus the product is a weak El Nino or warm neutral.


Ok, so we seem to agree about the future of ENSO, but we still disagree here lol

Well, that's what the models want to do mid June, strong MJO in the IO and then becoming weaker. I still think it will remain strong however.

Yes, but either way, the trades are enhanced, which means a likelier transition due to cooler SSTs. This then feedbacks to weaken the standing wave.

Well, that's pretty normal for an upwelling KW -> downwelling KW.

The pattern we've seen since spring is for Niño conditions to underperform, though :P

Problem is, it's not quite a periodic function. The cooling far outweighs the warming, even w/ the downwelling. This wouldn't quite support a continuation of El Niño


I think your take is that the factors that can cause cooling will overwhelm any warming that may occur which means that El Nino will not be around much longer. While I do consider this a possibility, I think the opposite will happen due to my reasons listed above. So we'll see what happens as in the end it'll come down to the SSTs and wherever rising air situates.
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