ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10741 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:44 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:If I had to take a guess on what's going to happen with this El Nino, I'd say slow decay of this event, but not a rapid transition to -ENSO like we commonly see during El Nino. This upcoming EWB looks strong and will likely persist for a little while. There has been some warming of the subsurface recently, which is to be expected of a WWB. However, this subsurface warm pool doesn't look particularly impressive, and there already appears to be a new cold pool building in the western Pacific. Unless we get another strong WWB, which likely wouldn't occur until late June, if at all, I think it's likely we dip back into warm neutral territory, at least temporarily. We nearly fell to warm neutral levels in mid-May before the WWB really had an effect.

One thing we are still seeing that is still reminiscent of El Nino is a sustained -SOI. SOI has been consistently negative for the past few months, and the 30 day average is at -8. It will be interesting to see how much the SOI rises with this EWB - wouldn't surprise me if June has a positive SOI average. ENSO models have recently been trending cooler. One possibility is that we briefly dip into warm neutral levels for the summer before seeing regrowth of El Nino in fall. Another possibility is El Nino steadily weakens and we could be looking at near-neutral ENSO by the end of the year. Will be interesting to see what happens! If the Nino does persist, I'm expecting it to be more of a west-based event.


Agreed, solid take.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10742 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Really lol. IMO not really or anytime soon. As a result of the month long May WWB: The buoys show a very healthy amount of +1C anomalies extending down 130 meters deep that covers the entire Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions, and they also show a area of +2C anomalies near 120W-100W expanding -- while the current upwelling Kelvin wave portion beneath the dateline and into the EPAC is now almost completely eroded. If you look at today's RMM plots, models look to be repeating what happened in April and May by showing hints of swinging the MJO all the way around again.

So even if a new upwelling Kelvin wave was triggered as Tyler Stanfield is pointing out, I think we should be cautious to say it will be the demise of this El Nino until SST's actually respond and winds become predominately easterly.
Because:
1. Oceanic Kelvin waves typically need about 2 months to reach the EPAC when they originate in the far WPAC, so whose to say there wont be another WWB in the meantime? One more true WWB event and by default (time) this El Nino will last into the winter.
2. For a quick transition out of El Nino into cool Neutral this upwelling Kelvin wave would need cooler anomalies than the one we saw in late April AND 850mb winds need to be supportive.


Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.

Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB.

Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date.

Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.

It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.

If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around.

Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.

Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.

As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.

The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.

But, we shall see who is correct! :)


Yeah there is a large difference between the buoys and the CPC graphics but only in regards to the +2C swath setting up below Nino 3. The PENTAD graphics will update soon though I wonder if they will be in better agreement then.

We would be following 2005 very nicely if the MJO amplified over the IO and then spent its time in June dead in the circle. But the key difference now is we're seeing progression towards phases 4/5/6 and eventually the Pacific. Also looking at the subsurface, 2005 is no longer an analog. 2017 still remains a decent analog at the subsurface but in regards to 850mb winds, its way off, and similar to 2005, it has the MJO in the circle for the month of June.

There is quite a bit of sinking motion moving across the Pacific and there is more rising air near the MC but the bulk of these -VP200 anomalies sit over the IO. The only time I'm going to consider that the atmosphere is switching out of El Nino and into neutral is if sinking air situates over the dateline, or rising air situates over the MC for 45-60 days. Remember for it to be considered a standing wave, the branch should be visible for about 60-90 days uninterrupted.

I don't disagree in regards to the rising motion over Africa vs El Nino. Big reason why I expect similar numbers to last year for the Atlantic hurricane season.

This is where I completely disagree lol. I believe this WWB was pretty significant in that it bought the El Nino much more time compared to La Nada's in 2005 and 2017 that did not have WWB's in May. Based on the buoys, It replaced -2C anomalies with +2C anomalies beneath Nino 3 and expanded +1C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 down to 130 meters. So yeah this does appear to be a continuation of the pattern we've seen since spring. I think we'll see noticeable cooling of the subsurface followed by re-warming and thus the product is a weak El Nino or warm neutral.


Ok, so we seem to agree about the future of ENSO, but we still disagree here lol

Well, that's what the models want to do mid June, strong MJO in the IO and then becoming weaker. I still think it will remain strong however.

Yes, but either way, the trades are enhanced, which means a likelier transition due to cooler SSTs. This then feedbacks to weaken the standing wave.

Well, that's pretty normal for an upwelling KW -> downwelling KW.

The pattern we've seen since spring is for Niño conditions to underperform, though :P

Problem is, it's not quite a periodic function. The cooling far outweighs the warming, even w/ the downwelling. This wouldn't quite support a continuation of El Niño
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10743 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:40 am

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.

Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB.

Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date.

Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.

It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.

If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around.

Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.

Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.

As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.

The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.

But, we shall see who is correct! :)


Yeah there is a large difference between the buoys and the CPC graphics but only in regards to the +2C swath setting up below Nino 3. The PENTAD graphics will update soon though I wonder if they will be in better agreement then.

We would be following 2005 very nicely if the MJO amplified over the IO and then spent its time in June dead in the circle. But the key difference now is we're seeing progression towards phases 4/5/6 and eventually the Pacific. Also looking at the subsurface, 2005 is no longer an analog. 2017 still remains a decent analog at the subsurface but in regards to 850mb winds, its way off, and similar to 2005, it has the MJO in the circle for the month of June.

There is quite a bit of sinking motion moving across the Pacific and there is more rising air near the MC but the bulk of these -VP200 anomalies sit over the IO. The only time I'm going to consider that the atmosphere is switching out of El Nino and into neutral is if sinking air situates over the dateline, or rising air situates over the MC for 45-60 days. Remember for it to be considered a standing wave, the branch should be visible for about 60-90 days uninterrupted.

I don't disagree in regards to the rising motion over Africa vs El Nino. Big reason why I expect similar numbers to last year for the Atlantic hurricane season.

This is where I completely disagree lol. I believe this WWB was pretty significant in that it bought the El Nino much more time compared to La Nada's in 2005 and 2017 that did not have WWB's in May. Based on the buoys, It replaced -2C anomalies with +2C anomalies beneath Nino 3 and expanded +1C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 down to 130 meters. So yeah this does appear to be a continuation of the pattern we've seen since spring. I think we'll see noticeable cooling of the subsurface followed by re-warming and thus the product is a weak El Nino or warm neutral.


Ok, so we seem to agree about the future of ENSO, but we still disagree here lol

Well, that's what the models want to do mid June, strong MJO in the IO and then becoming weaker. I still think it will remain strong however.

Yes, but either way, the trades are enhanced, which means a likelier transition due to cooler SSTs. This then feedbacks to weaken the standing wave.

Well, that's pretty normal for an upwelling KW -> downwelling KW.

The pattern we've seen since spring is for Niño conditions to underperform, though :P

Problem is, it's not quite a periodic function. The cooling far outweighs the warming, even w/ the downwelling. This wouldn't quite support a continuation of El Niño


I think your take is that the factors that can cause cooling will overwhelm any warming that may occur which means that El Nino will not be around much longer. While I do consider this a possibility, I think the opposite will happen due to my reasons listed above. So we'll see what happens as in the end it'll come down to the SSTs and wherever rising air situates.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10744 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:41 am

BOM up to +0.86
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10745 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:02 am

+1.0C this week
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10746 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:26 am

Text of the CPC weekly update that has Niño 3.4 going up to +1.0C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10747 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:20 pm

So based on the 12z Euro, the SOI for the first 10 days of June will likely average out between -3 and -7, this is because of nearly identical high pressure numbers over Tahiti and Darwin. I'm saying between -3 and -7 due to identical pressures in the same region so it will come down to day by day observations. Days 10 through 20 of June will likely be a positive SOI due to the MJO entering the MC.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10748 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:18 am

ONI for MAM did not fall as some expected either. Held again at 0.8C. It has hovered there since basically late last fall.

That is 7th trimonthly now, El Nino continues.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10749 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:56 am

Ntxw wrote:ONI for MAM did not fall as some expected either. Held again at 0.8C. It has hovered there since basically late last fall.

That is 7th trimonthly now, El Nino continues.



Works for me, hope it shuts down the entire season.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10750 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:45 am

Ntxw wrote:ONI for MAM did not fall as some expected either. Held again at 0.8C. It has hovered there since basically late last fall.

That is 7th trimonthly now, El Nino continues.

So CPC adjusted the week where we had +0.4C higher?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10751 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:36 am

Ventrice has an interesting tweet:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136051786064809985




If the ocean current between the WPAC and EPAC is moving strongly east it means downwelling is occuring and is a resemblance of El Nino. So a bunch of downwelling is occuring in the CPAC. But interesting to note that the current is reversed in some parts of the EPAC and moving towards the west, which indicates likely upwelling.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10752 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:43 am

Kingarabian wrote:Ventrice has an interesting tweet:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136051786064809985

If the ocean current between the WPAC and EPAC is moving strongly east it means downwelling is occuring and is a resemblance of El Nino. So a bunch of downwelling is occuring in the CPAC. But interesting to note that the current is reversed in some parts of the EPAC and moving towards the west, which indicates likely upwelling.


The canonical Niño means that the westward current goes thru most of the Pacific. I suspect it stopping at 155°W is another Modoki like signal
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10753 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:57 pm

[For reference: trimonthly ONI values of +0.5 to +0.8°C are considered representative of "weak" +ENSO (El Niño) conditions; +1.0 to +1.4°C, "moderate"; +1.5 to +1.9°C, "strong"; and ≥ +2.0°C, "very strong" (or "super").] Since 1950, besides 2019, there have been eight years with a March-April-May (MAM) trimonthly averaged Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) value of +0.8°C or greater: 1958, 1969, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, and 2015–6. (Of these, only 1969 and 2015 were in the range of a weak El Niño at the time of the MAM measurement.) Of all the years sampled, the range of outcomes by the fall ranged from strong El Niño to strong La Niña. Given these climatological data, there is high uncertainty in regard to the ultimate evolution of ENSO, thus accounting for the equally uncertain Atlantic TC forecasts from various sources.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10754 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:00 pm

Some large differences between the CFS and GFS in their zonal wind forecasts, with almost exact opposite solutions depicted. Pretty odd to see NCEP models differing so much.
Image

Some of this may be attributed to their respective MJO forecasts:
Image

GFS has the MJO parked over the IO while the Euro and CFS show continued progression. Still doesn't explain why the CFS has such a large scale WWB so soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10755 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Some large differences between the CFS and GFS in their zonal wind forecasts, with almost exact opposite solutions depicted. Pretty odd to see NCEP models differing so much.
https://i.imgur.com/kcT2LFM.png

Some of this may be attributed to their respective MJO forecasts:
https://i.imgur.com/0Sz8Onr.png

GFS has the MJO parked over the IO while the Euro and CFS show continued progression. Still doesn't explain why the CFS has such a large scale WWB so soon.



Yeah it's probably better to lean on the GFS currently. The CFS is killing off the African standing wave, for some reason, which allows the ENSO to take over and cause WWB activity. Of course, this isn't correct. You can't kill off a strong standing wave that quickly.

Not sure what the Euro guidance is showing however

Ventrice talks about the CFS:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136284887340765184


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10756 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:04 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10757 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:21 am

No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10758 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:07 am

cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697[url]

Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.

And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlantic Hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10759 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:23 am

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697[url]

Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.

And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlsntic Hurricane season.



Pretty important and valuable data.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10760 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697[url]

Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.

And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlantic Hurricane season.


Most Modoki years are quiet, correct? Oh, hey everyone. Time to start tracking the 2019 season. Hoping all is quiet on the western front (WATL that is)
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