ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10741 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:41 am

BOM up to +0.86
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10742 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:02 am

+1.0C this week
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10743 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:26 am

Text of the CPC weekly update that has Niño 3.4 going up to +1.0C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10744 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:20 pm

So based on the 12z Euro, the SOI for the first 10 days of June will likely average out between -3 and -7, this is because of nearly identical high pressure numbers over Tahiti and Darwin. I'm saying between -3 and -7 due to identical pressures in the same region so it will come down to day by day observations. Days 10 through 20 of June will likely be a positive SOI due to the MJO entering the MC.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10745 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:18 am

ONI for MAM did not fall as some expected either. Held again at 0.8C. It has hovered there since basically late last fall.

That is 7th trimonthly now, El Nino continues.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10746 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:56 am

Ntxw wrote:ONI for MAM did not fall as some expected either. Held again at 0.8C. It has hovered there since basically late last fall.

That is 7th trimonthly now, El Nino continues.



Works for me, hope it shuts down the entire season.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10747 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:45 am

Ntxw wrote:ONI for MAM did not fall as some expected either. Held again at 0.8C. It has hovered there since basically late last fall.

That is 7th trimonthly now, El Nino continues.

So CPC adjusted the week where we had +0.4C higher?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10748 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:36 am

Ventrice has an interesting tweet:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136051786064809985




If the ocean current between the WPAC and EPAC is moving strongly east it means downwelling is occuring and is a resemblance of El Nino. So a bunch of downwelling is occuring in the CPAC. But interesting to note that the current is reversed in some parts of the EPAC and moving towards the west, which indicates likely upwelling.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10749 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:43 am

Kingarabian wrote:Ventrice has an interesting tweet:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136051786064809985

If the ocean current between the WPAC and EPAC is moving strongly east it means downwelling is occuring and is a resemblance of El Nino. So a bunch of downwelling is occuring in the CPAC. But interesting to note that the current is reversed in some parts of the EPAC and moving towards the west, which indicates likely upwelling.


The canonical Niño means that the westward current goes thru most of the Pacific. I suspect it stopping at 155°W is another Modoki like signal
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10750 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:57 pm

[For reference: trimonthly ONI values of +0.5 to +0.8°C are considered representative of "weak" +ENSO (El Niño) conditions; +1.0 to +1.4°C, "moderate"; +1.5 to +1.9°C, "strong"; and ≥ +2.0°C, "very strong" (or "super").] Since 1950, besides 2019, there have been eight years with a March-April-May (MAM) trimonthly averaged Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) value of +0.8°C or greater: 1958, 1969, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, and 2015–6. (Of these, only 1969 and 2015 were in the range of a weak El Niño at the time of the MAM measurement.) Of all the years sampled, the range of outcomes by the fall ranged from strong El Niño to strong La Niña. Given these climatological data, there is high uncertainty in regard to the ultimate evolution of ENSO, thus accounting for the equally uncertain Atlantic TC forecasts from various sources.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10751 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:00 pm

Some large differences between the CFS and GFS in their zonal wind forecasts, with almost exact opposite solutions depicted. Pretty odd to see NCEP models differing so much.
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Some of this may be attributed to their respective MJO forecasts:
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GFS has the MJO parked over the IO while the Euro and CFS show continued progression. Still doesn't explain why the CFS has such a large scale WWB so soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10752 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Some large differences between the CFS and GFS in their zonal wind forecasts, with almost exact opposite solutions depicted. Pretty odd to see NCEP models differing so much.
https://i.imgur.com/kcT2LFM.png

Some of this may be attributed to their respective MJO forecasts:
https://i.imgur.com/0Sz8Onr.png

GFS has the MJO parked over the IO while the Euro and CFS show continued progression. Still doesn't explain why the CFS has such a large scale WWB so soon.



Yeah it's probably better to lean on the GFS currently. The CFS is killing off the African standing wave, for some reason, which allows the ENSO to take over and cause WWB activity. Of course, this isn't correct. You can't kill off a strong standing wave that quickly.

Not sure what the Euro guidance is showing however

Ventrice talks about the CFS:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136284887340765184


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10753 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:04 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10754 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:21 am

No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10755 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:07 am

cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697[url]

Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.

And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlantic Hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10756 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:23 am

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697[url]

Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.

And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlsntic Hurricane season.



Pretty important and valuable data.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10757 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697[url]

Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.

And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlantic Hurricane season.


Most Modoki years are quiet, correct? Oh, hey everyone. Time to start tracking the 2019 season. Hoping all is quiet on the western front (WATL that is)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10758 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:43 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Most Modoki years are quiet, correct? Oh, hey everyone. Time to start tracking the 2019 season. Hoping all is quiet on the western front (WATL that is)


Quiet for the Altantic? Not sure about that. Modoki gets thrown around a lot but it only is true if Nino 1+2 is near moderate Nina threshold. This way sinking motion ends up over the EPAC.

While the Nino's that are central Pacific based do look similar to Modoki's, most of them have enough warmth near Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 that cause a branch of rising air to sit over the EPAC and thus causing sinking motion over the Caribbean and also some enhanced shear.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10759 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Most Modoki years are quiet, correct? Oh, hey everyone. Time to start tracking the 2019 season. Hoping all is quiet on the western front (WATL that is)


Quiet for the Altantic? Not sure about that. Modoki gets thrown around a lot but it only is true if Nino 1+2 is near moderate Nina threshold. This way sinking motion ends up over the EPAC.

While the Nino's that are central Pacific based do look similar to Modoki's, most of them have enough warmth near Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 that cause a branch of rising air to sit over the EPAC and thus causing sinking motion over the Caribbean and also some enhanced shear.


Okay, thanks for explaining it a little better. I figured any form of El Nino would suppress the Atlantic. I am hoping El Nino rebounds quite a bit, but it is looking like wishful thinking right now. :cry:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10760 Postby Chris90 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136619928373661697[url]

Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.

And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlantic Hurricane season.


This is a really good point about the impacts of Modoki on the ATL. It seems like ever since 2004 Modoki has been associated with an active ATL, despite the fact that the 2004 season is merely one example. It would be interesting if we got a true Modoki this year during ASO to see how the Atlantic behaves.
I've seen you post analogs and comparisons before, and if you don't mind, I was wondering if you might have some comparisons/analysis between how the current ENSO state compares to the ENSO state of May/June of 2004. I've seen some members mention 2004 in other regards, but I was wondering how this year matches up to 2004 on a purely ENSO level.
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