Kingarabian wrote: NotSparta wrote:
Really lol. IMO not really or anytime soon. As a result of the month long May WWB: The buoys show a very healthy amount of +1C anomalies extending down 130 meters deep that covers the entire Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions, and they also show a area of +2C anomalies near 120W-100W expanding -- while the current upwelling Kelvin wave portion beneath the dateline and into the EPAC is now almost completely eroded. If you look at today's RMM plots, models look to be repeating what happened in April and May by showing hints of swinging the MJO all the way around again.
So even if a new upwelling Kelvin wave was triggered as Tyler Stanfield is pointing out, I think we should be cautious to say it will be the demise of this El Nino until SST's actually respond and winds become predominately easterly.
1. Oceanic Kelvin waves typically need about 2 months to reach the EPAC when they originate in the far WPAC, so whose to say there wont be another WWB in the meantime? One more true WWB event and by default (time) this El Nino will last into the winter.
2. For a quick transition out of El Nino into cool Neutral this upwelling Kelvin wave would need cooler anomalies than the one we saw in late April AND 850mb winds need to be supportive.
Well, guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But, I'll put evidence forth.Is it though? The buoys do show that, but there is disagreement w/ the CPC, not too sure who to believe. The buoys have had problems w/ data recently, and Paul Roundy suggested using 2°S data, which helps the problem. That's normal for a WWB. I'd be putting my eggs in cool neutral if that didn't happen. Pretty classic WWB. Also, maybe, but I remember you saying that in 2005 (while not a great analog), the MJO was swinging around. That's happening now. What's the big difference here? All I can think of is the date. Well, while this EWB may not mean the end, it is the result of some signs that strongly suggest El Niño is weakening. The velocity potential anomalies that are producing this eliminate the rising air over the Niño regions entirely and temporarily produce a La Niña like look. This is way more extreme than when the EWB occurred in April.
It appears to be making up for the limitations of the last one. While not much stronger looking, the EWB appears much larger and longer lived. This will allow sfc waters to cool, and the downwelling KW to be stunted, and possibly a new upwelling KW to form.
If it does, it will be even stronger than the last - the subsfc is quite a bit cooler this time around. Also, this weakening of the standing wave that has occurred has allowed Africa to dominate, which means this Niño will be struggling to be the big player. Something similar happened in 2018.Sure, there could be another WWB, but it's been the same song and dance since March - the WWBs since then have underwhelmed. The last one only managed to get near calm winds at the dateline. This time, coupling will be weaker as the SSTs will almost surely fall during the EWB. So, the WWB will need significantly more atmospheric "oomph", which, given this spring's history, will be difficult to count on.
As for the second point, I still have doubts about cool neutral, that's a long way to go in 6 months. Warm neutral appears more likely to me. But, I'll still play devil's advocate.
The upwelling KW having cooler anomalies than the last? Not a stretch, the subsfc hasn't really warmed up a very significant amount and this EWB looks to produce more wind stress than the last. The u850 isn't all that supportive though, I agree.
But, we shall see who is correct!
Yeah there is a large difference between the buoys and the CPC graphics but only in regards to the +2C swath setting up below Nino 3. The PENTAD graphics will update soon though I wonder if they will be in better agreement then.
We would be following 2005 very nicely if the MJO amplified over the IO and then spent its time in June dead in the circle. But the key difference now is we're seeing progression towards phases 4/5/6 and eventually the Pacific. Also looking at the subsurface, 2005 is no longer an analog. 2017 still remains a decent analog at the subsurface but in regards to 850mb winds, its way off, and similar to 2005, it has the MJO in the circle for the month of June.
There is quite a bit of sinking motion moving across the Pacific and there is more rising air near the MC but the bulk of these -VP200 anomalies sit over the IO. The only time I'm going to consider that the atmosphere is switching out of El Nino and into neutral is if sinking air situates over the dateline, or rising air situates over the MC for 45-60 days. Remember for it to be considered a standing wave, the branch should be visible for about 60-90 days uninterrupted.
I don't disagree in regards to the rising motion over Africa vs El Nino. Big reason why I expect similar numbers to last year for the Atlantic hurricane season.
This is where I completely disagree lol. I believe this WWB was pretty significant in that it bought the El Nino much more time compared to La Nada's in 2005 and 2017 that did not have WWB's in May. Based on the buoys, It replaced -2C anomalies with +2C anomalies beneath Nino 3 and expanded +1C anomalies beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 down to 130 meters. So yeah this does appear to be a continuation of the pattern we've seen since spring. I think we'll see noticeable cooling of the subsurface followed by re-warming and thus the product is a weak El Nino or warm neutral.
Ok, so we seem to agree about the future of ENSO, but we still disagree here lol
Well, that's what the models want to do mid June, strong MJO in the IO and then becoming weaker. I still think it will remain strong however.
Yes, but either way, the trades are enhanced, which means a likelier transition due to cooler SSTs. This then feedbacks to weaken the standing wave.
Well, that's pretty normal for an upwelling KW -> downwelling KW.
The pattern we've seen since spring is for Niño conditions to underperform, though
Problem is, it's not quite a periodic function. The cooling far outweighs the warming, even w/ the downwelling. This wouldn't quite support a continuation of El Niño