Chris90 wrote: Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No Strong El Niño in the cards for the rest of 2019
Yeah we all kinda figured this out back in April lol. If this El Nino presists through the end of the year, it'll still be significant as we've never seen double dip El Ninos so close to each other before.
And if Nino 1+2 tanks some more and a true Modoki takes place, we'll get another closer look on the impacts of Modoki El Nino on the Atlantic Hurricane season.
This is a really good point about the impacts of Modoki on the ATL. It seems like ever since 2004 Modoki has been associated with an active ATL, despite the fact that the 2004 season is merely one example. It would be interesting if we got a true Modoki this year during ASO to see how the Atlantic behaves.
I've seen you post analogs and comparisons before, and if you don't mind, I was wondering if you might have some comparisons/analysis between how the current ENSO state compares to the ENSO state of May/June of 2004. I've seen some members mention 2004 in other regards, but I was wondering how this year matches up to 2004 on a purely ENSO level.
Well at this time compared to 2004, 2019 is warmer at the subsurface but not by a far margin. Both have upwelling Kelvin waves present but in different locations. Currently all Nino regions at the surface are much warmer than they were at this point in time in 2004.
We currently have a upwelling Kelvin wave in the far WPAC and 2004 had one beneath the CPAC progressing to the EPAC.
Key difference is that in 2004, by July, there was significant upwelling beneath Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 and strong downwelling beneath Nino 4 and Nino 3.4:
This is likely attributed to prevalent westerly anomalies centered east of 160E and prevalent trades over the EPAC during May and June 2004:
So while there are some similarities, 2004 was quickly transitioning towards Modoki status while 2019 continues to stick towards a traditionalish look. We'll see how things progress after this trade burst commences.