ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10901 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:57 pm

:uarrow: Yup that's a true Modoki for sure if it verifies and Nino 1+2 remains near La Nina thresholds.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1143915014992121862


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10902 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:53 pm

SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.

Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10903 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.


Lack of coherent MC convection, is more Nino-ish (no surprise there) and South Pacific cooler (Nina-like sort of). But then again, would you expect anything different than a Nino with the label "Modoki" which means not the same?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10904 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.


Lack of coherent MC convection, is more Nino-ish (no surprise there) and South Pacific cooler (Nina-like sort of). But then again, would you expect anything different than a Nino with the label "Modoki" which means not the same?

Touche!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10905 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.

Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg


Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.

The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.

Image

Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10906 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:59 pm

Barring some unexpected warming over the next few days, I'd have to imagine next week's Nino 3.4 value is below +0.5C, but it's going to be interesting to see just how low it gets. We likely won't see any more cooling as the trades relax, but it seems unlikely a trade relaxation will be able to ignite a new downwelling KW to restrengthen this Nino.

It is odd, though, how the SOI is remaining consistently negative despite the El Nino influence appearing to fade.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10907 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:04 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.

Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg


Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.

The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.

https://i.imgur.com/MwZDaqc.png

Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that


2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10908 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.


2017 was coming out of the 2016-2017 Nina though. So it didn't take much to get back to the second Nina (2017-2018). The base start now is different.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10909 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:12 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.


2017 was coming out of the 2016-2017 Nina though. So it didn't take much to get back to the second Nina (2017-2018). The base start now is different.

True could be the difference maker hopefully. Don't want to see another catastrophic year similar to 2017.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10910 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:58 pm

While dailies are bad to diagnose ENSO, the collapse of +SSTAs typically means a "jerk" out of the El Niño. This will influence the atmospheric pattern by reducing coupling

There's little chance of WWB activity until mid/late July at best, which means that there won't be much for El Niño to go off of for weeks, when it is already anemic
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10911 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.

Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg


Maybe when you say "neutral or La Niña", you should mean cool neutral (if you don't already). Currently even w/ the -SOI the Niño is pretty borderline.

The relaxed trades do make sense given the MJO position which currently strongly favors El Niño.

https://i.imgur.com/MwZDaqc.png

Also, 2017 was nearly a Moderate La Niña, so I don't think it's a very good comparison as we're not headed anywhere close to that


2017 went cool neutral for ASO then eventually a full on La Nina. I think it's a good comparison because it's very similar at the Pacific subsurface, similar SST configurations in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and similar SOI state. That's still a possibility we can't cross off until we either see weak El Nino re-inforced regardless of the slight present advantage in warmth. Because if we get a couple of trade bursts we'll head down a very similar path to 2017. It's very simple to see.


There's definitely the chance for reinforcement of El Niño causing it to maintain, but this looks like a higher end estimate now
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10912 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:06 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10913 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:06 am

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1144571159524065280



Also note the lack of sinking motion (yellow/oranges) shadings in the CPAC/EPAC on the VP200 hovmoller, well into the end of the forecast period.

But on the other hand very impressive upwelling Kelvin wave:
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1144540737117261826


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10914 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:13 am

Euro still having trouble with forecasting pressures over Tahiti correctly. Daily reading for the June 28th was 1011.47mb while the Euro was showing 1013mb, and daily reading for June 29th was 1011.97mb while it was supposed to be above 1014mb.
These lower than predicted pressures over Tahiti are causing large negative contributions to the 30 day and 90 day SOI.
We'll see if it makes a big difference or not but if the models are not getting the pressure pattern correct we may need to factor in an additional westerly component to the forecast of relaxed trades.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10915 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:24 am

SOI is still running very negative. I think much like the Fall and early Spring when it gave us a hint that major warming wasn't going to occur, it's giving us hints now to keep it steady still. There's going to be cooling for sure come Monday's update but ONI will still be within El Nino levels (new month value).

Also the flurry of EPAC cyclones usually tends to slow down the trades east of the IDL.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10916 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:01 pm

Here's the pressure forecast for Tahiti and Darwin (note these are rounded estimates). It's derived from today's 12z Euro:
Tahiti:

Code: Select all

June 30:1014.75
July 1:1016.00
July 2:1016.50
July 3:1016.00
July 4:1016.00
July 5:1016.00
July 6:1015.00
July 7:1014.00
July 8:1014.00

Darwin:

Code: Select all

June 30:1013.50
July 1:1014.00
July 2:1014.00
July 3:1015.00
July 4:1015.50
July 5:1015.00
July 6:1015.50
July 7:1016.00
July 8:1015.50


IF this forecast holds true, we should see the SOI turn positive from June30-July3 before crashing again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10917 Postby LarryWx » Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.

Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg


King,
I'm estimating SLPs for June of 2019 as follows: Tahiti 1013.5, Darwin 1013.75. For Junes, avg. Tahiti is ~1014.0 and avg. Darwin is only ~1012.7. So, they both are consistent with somewhat favoring El Nino for the upcoming fall although Darwin moreso.

So, I looked at June Darwin SLPs as per this link:
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/ ... nmslp.html

- Only 9 of the last 143 Junes had a higher SLP at Darwin
- In the range of 1013.5-1014.0: 1885, 1911, 1914, 1929, 1940, 1941, 1949, 1965, 1977, 1982, 1988, 1993, 2011, 2017, 2018; 9 of these 15 had oncoming Nino, 2 neutral, 4 Nina

June SOI will be ~-10.
- Only 22 of the last 143 Junes had sub -10
- These were in the -8 to -12 range: 1882, 1899, 1911, 1914, 1919, 1946, 1949, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2012, 2015, 2017; 8 of these 17 had oncoming Nino, 6 neutral, 3 Nina
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10918 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:50 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:SOI for June 27th came in @ -30. Euro showed pressure over Tahiti @ 1013mb for June 27th. Except it came in near 1011.50mb. So anyways I ran some numbers last night off the 12z Euro. Through July 5th it had pressures over Tahiti averaging nearly 1015mb and it had pressures over Darwin averaging nearly 1014.5mb.

I'll re-run the numbers over the weekend and hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pressures over Tahiti, because it's had high bias there, often being 1-1.5mb's too high throughout June.

However if these numbers stand, then it's a negative SOI setup which would call for relaxed trades for the first half of July. But based on LarryWx's numbers, the atmosphere is acting pretty abnormal. Tahiti pressures if they were to remain this high (1014.5+), would argue for a moderate La Nina (and maybe even a 2017 repeat), while Darwin's pressures (1014.0+) would call for continued El Nino conditions. But regardless of the exact numbers, the forecast is calling for the the SOI to remain negative which means that the atmosphere is still tilted towards El Nino at the time being and at the end of the day, the SOI NEEDS to come up to allow neutral or La Nina conditions to settle in.

Important to note that relaxed trades are in the model's forecasts while 2017 at this time was setting up trade burst after trade burst.
https://i.imgur.com/BKYab39.jpg


King,
I'm estimating SLPs for June of 2019 as follows: Tahiti 1013.5, Darwin 1013.75. For Junes, avg. Tahiti is ~1014.0 and avg. Darwin is only ~1012.7. So, they both are consistent with somewhat favoring El Nino for the upcoming fall although Darwin moreso.

So, I looked at June Darwin SLPs as per this link:
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/ ... nmslp.html

- Only 9 of the last 143 Junes had a higher SLP at Darwin
- In the range of 1013.5-1014.0: 1885, 1911, 1914, 1929, 1940, 1941, 1949, 1965, 1977, 1982, 1988, 1993, 2011, 2017, 2018; 9 of these 15 had oncoming Nino, 2 neutral, 4 Nina

June SOI will be ~-10.
- Only 22 of the last 143 Junes had sub -10
- These were in the -8 to -12 range: 1882, 1899, 1911, 1914, 1919, 1946, 1949, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2012, 2015, 2017; 8 of these 17 had oncoming Nino, 6 neutral, 3 Nina

Good to see you back, Larry.
Thanks for hashing those out. Looks like there is a slight lean for El Nino to persist through the fall however it still seems pretty inconclusive. We'll need to see how July unfolds and so far it looks like there will be pretty high pressures over Tahiti and Darwin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10919 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:27 pm

Not saying this will happen, but fwiw, all these yrs had a -ENSO (ENS ONI < 0 DJF) by the end of the yr

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1145375919512662016


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10920 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:49 pm

NotSparta wrote:Not saying this will happen, but fwiw, all these yrs had a -ENSO (ENS ONI < saw0 DJF) by the end of the yr

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1145375919512662016


If we are to use a seemingly inactive WPAC season as indicator for - ENSO later in the year, I think there are some cases when the weak El Nino continuing into the second year actually killed the basin..1969 and 1977 to be exact, and I see the ONI for DJF in those years are still within El Nino threshold.

I don't know, but I'm inclined to think that the ENSO state not flipping yet could be the culprit of this inactivity...though there are more to be seen in the coming months, both in TC activity elsewhere and in the actual ENSO evolution. :D
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