ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10921 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:32 pm

The July CanSIPS came in considerably cooler and now shows a transition to warm-neutral ENSO this summer, before appearing to show a new east-based weak El Nino event forming this winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10922 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:28 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10923 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:42 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10924 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:52 pm

Very robust upwelling Kelvin wave showing up on those PENTAD graphics. No doubt about that. But to also have a standing El Nino wave in the EPAC developing at the same is head scratching.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1145713358999621632


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10925 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Here's the pressure forecast for Tahiti and Darwin (note these are rounded estimates). It's derived from today's 12z Euro:
Tahiti:

Code: Select all

June 30:1014.75
July 1:1016.00
July 2:1016.50
July 3:1016.00
July 4:1016.00
July 5:1016.00
July 6:1015.00
July 7:1014.00
July 8:1014.00

Darwin:

Code: Select all

June 30:1013.50
July 1:1014.00
July 2:1014.00
July 3:1015.00
July 4:1015.50
July 5:1015.00
July 6:1015.50
July 7:1016.00
July 8:1015.50


IF this forecast holds true, we should see the SOI turn positive from June30-July3 before crashing again.

I give up. Euro continues to do poorly and forecasting correct pressures over Tahiti. Pressures continue to come in lower than modeled.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10926 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Here's the pressure forecast for Tahiti and Darwin (note these are rounded estimates). It's derived from today's 12z Euro:
Tahiti:

Code: Select all

June 30:1014.75
July 1:1016.00
July 2:1016.50
July 3:1016.00
July 4:1016.00
July 5:1016.00
July 6:1015.00
July 7:1014.00
July 8:1014.00

Darwin:

Code: Select all

June 30:1013.50
July 1:1014.00
July 2:1014.00
July 3:1015.00
July 4:1015.50
July 5:1015.00
July 6:1015.50
July 7:1016.00
July 8:1015.50


IF this forecast holds true, we should see the SOI turn positive from June30-July3 before crashing again.

I give up. Euro continues to do poorly and forecasting correct pressures over Tahiti. Pressures continue to come in lower than modeled.


The cold waters over the MC (Darwin included) is also a consistent influence causing this. This region is a key player in the equatorial tropics as well. So while the Pacific has cooled, the MC has not warmed (important for Nina) to provide convection away from the Pacific.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10927 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Very robust upwelling Kelvin wave showing up on those PENTAD graphics. No doubt about that. But to also have a standing El Nino wave in the EPAC developing at the same is head scratching.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1145713358999621632



Definitely appears influenced by the +PMM. If that'll help the Niño, that I'm less sure of
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10928 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:16 pm

so atl ocean side may pick up with kvein wave moving east? weaker elnino
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10929 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:The cold waters over the MC (Darwin included) is also a consistent influence causing this. This region is a key player in the equatorial tropics as well. So while the Pacific has cooled, the MC has not warmed (important for Nina) to provide convection away from the Pacific.


And I believe that's causing tilt in the pressure pattern with at least some correlation with SOI continuing to be more negative than modeled, forcing the GFS to to adjust and show a prolonged reduced trade event.

EPS also has something similar:
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1145693755967717376




So by theory, this would give the Nino regions relief from cooling. But for how long? We'll see.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10930 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jul 02, 2019 10:12 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10931 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:08 pm

This is the reasoning to hold steady and not let day to day and even week to week changes get excited one way or the other. When there is conflicting signals it tends to balance each other out. Just as cooling dominated the past few weeks, it may switch to warming for a few weeks.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10932 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:45 pm

SOI finally switched positive. Let's see how long it lasts.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10933 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:28 pm

I don't think there will be Nino associated shear over the Caribbean nor the MDR through ASO. But because there is a Nino standing wave which is likely associated with a rising air branch of the Walker cell -- if it persists, there's a chance for all the rising air over the EPAC to sink back down somewhere over the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1146058695329099776


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.3C

#10934 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:This is the reasoning to hold steady and not let day to day and even week to week changes get excited one way or the other. When there is conflicting signals it tends to balance each other out. Just as cooling dominated the past few weeks, it may switch to warming for a few weeks.

https://images2.imgbox.com/07/7f/Ph7k0nWA_o.gif


El Niño could rebound but the subsurface is quite cool still.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10935 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:13 pm

ONI for AMJ came in at +0.7C which means there is/was still El Nino (weak and modoki). If cooling in theory were to continue MJJ may not make it to neutral but JJA could in the September update.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10936 Postby StruThiO » Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:28 pm

latest buoys/subsurface

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10937 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:SOI finally switched positive. Let's see how long it lasts.


Not very long if you're looking for continuous +SOI. Darwin's pressures remain high. The walker circulation is farther to the east than cold neutral or Nina due to the cold MC.

Image

This is strictly a Central Pacific squeezed modoki now. Image below courtesy of Notsparta's site, very good if you want a clean look from OISSTv2.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10938 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:55 pm

Here's how the Euro pressure forecast from 12z 6/29 held up...
(The left is the forecasted value, the right is the observation)

Tahiti
6/30:1014.75/1013.04
7/1:1016.0/1013.86
7/2:1016.5/1015.49
7/3:1016.0/1015.23
7/4:1016.0/1015.60

Darwin
6/30:1013.5/1013.10
7/1:1014.0/1013.05
7/2:1014.0/1013.30
7/3:1015.0/1014.25
7/4:1015.5/1015.05

Based on the forecast, the SOI should've been decently positive from 6/30-7/3, however the SOI only went positive on 7/2 (7.63), and barely on 7/3 (0.18). It's frustrating that the forecasts are not verifying, because the SOI is one of the only indicators that is still solidly leaning towards El Nino atm. Despite numerous forecasts to go positive, the SOI continues to verify lower than forecasted.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10939 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:SOI finally switched positive. Let's see how long it lasts.


Not very long if you're looking for continuous +SOI. Darwin's pressures remain high. The walker circulation is farther to the east than cold neutral or Nina due to the cold MC.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/0b/92/v3rdPFxr_o.png[url]

This is strictly a Central Pacific squeezed modoki now. Image below courtesy of Notsparta's site, very good if you want a clean look from OISSTv2.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/98/16/DyqqfxKZ_o.png[url]

Yes pretty evident. The forecasts so far are opposite of what happened in 2017.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10940 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:15 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Here's how the Euro pressure forecast from 12z 6/29 held up...
(The left is the forecasted value, the right is the observation)

Tahiti
6/30:1014.75/1013.04
7/1:1016.0/1013.86
7/2:1016.5/1015.49
7/3:1016.0/1015.23
7/4:1016.0/1015.60

Darwin
6/30:1013.5/1013.10
7/1:1014.0/1013.05
7/2:1014.0/1013.30
7/3:1015.0/1014.25
7/4:1015.5/1015.05

Based on the forecast, the SOI should've been decently positive from 6/30-7/3, however the SOI only went positive on 7/2 (7.63), and barely on 7/3 (0.18). It's frustrating that the forecasts are not verifying, because the SOI is one of the only indicators that is still solidly leaning towards El Nino atm. Despite numerous forecasts to go positive, the SOI continues to verify lower than forecasted.


For what it's worth, I got these numbers from yesterdays 12Z Euro run, which would be July 3rd:

Code: Select all

Tahiti:
July 4:1016.00
Juiy 5:1016.00
Juiy 6:1014.00
Juiy 7:1014.00
Juiy 8:1015.00
Juiy 9:1015.50
Juiy 10:1015.00
Juiy 11:1015.00
Juiy 12:1014.00

Code: Select all

Darwin:
July 4:1015.50
Juiy 5:1015.00
Juiy 6:1015.00
Juiy 7:1016.25
Juiy 8:1016.25
Juiy 9:1014.50
Juiy 10:1015.00
Juiy 11:1015.50
Juiy 12:1015.50


So a negative setup is in the cards if this verifies. I also compared with the GFS which is similar.
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