ENSO Updates

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10941 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:40 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10942 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:01 pm

El Niño has been going south for the last 2 months but some won’t admit it
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10943 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:24 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:El Niño has been going south for the last 2 months but some won’t admit it


I'm not sure what you're saying here. There really isn't anything to admit from anyone. Most everyone here has posted reasonable information backed with data. The numbers are the numbers, I don't think this is fair judgement towards others without posting empirical statistics to support your claim. We are in a weak ENSO state, there are supporting values for and against, that's just the nature of it.

We have to somewhat avoid using the ENSO for basin politics and biases in this thread, we tend to just follow what the ocean and atmosphere does.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10944 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:59 pm

Today’s 2 Euro runs suggest that after the next two days that there will be a dominating -SOI for most of the subsequent 8+ days (I think tomorrow and Saturday will actually be positive as Darwin comes down). Much of this is due to relatively high Darwin SLPs most days. As a matter of fact, 7/8 and 7/12 could be close to 1016. Also, Tahiti gets low late in the run. So, the most -SOIs of the next 10 days may actually end up toward the end.
Considering what lies ahead SOI-wise, El Niño could return within a few weeks though there often is a couple of week lag.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10945 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:08 pm

LarryWx wrote:Today’s 2 Euro runs suggest that after the next two days that a dominating -SOI for most of the subsequent 8+ days (I think tomorrow and Saturday will actually be positive as Darwin comes down). Much of this is due to relatively high Darwin SLPs most days. As a matter of fact, 7/8 and 7/12 could be close to 1016. Also, Tahiti gets low late in the run. So, the most -SOIs of the next 10 days may actually end up toward the end.
Considering what lies ahead SOI-wise, El Niño could return within a few weeks though there often is a couple of week lag.


Weird that there's persistent -SOI yet the winds aren't really cooperating w/ it
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10946 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:20 pm

NotSparta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Today’s 2 Euro runs suggest that after the next two days that a dominating -SOI for most of the subsequent 8+ days (I think tomorrow and Saturday will actually be positive as Darwin comes down). Much of this is due to relatively high Darwin SLPs most days. As a matter of fact, 7/8 and 7/12 could be close to 1016. Also, Tahiti gets low late in the run. So, the most -SOIs of the next 10 days may actually end up toward the end.
Considering what lies ahead SOI-wise, El Niño could return within a few weeks though there often is a couple of week lag.


Weird that there's persistent -SOI yet the winds aren't really cooperating w/ it

It's hard to know how much to an extent that the zonal winds are cooperating or not cooperation.
Also the SOI factors in not just the pressure pattern, where lower pressure in Darwin, high in Tahiti = trades above average / higher in Darwin lower in Tahiti = below average trades or westerlies, but it also takes into account VP200 anomalies and where -VP200 anomalies are concentrated the most. Because closer to the MC means much more convection there, thus also lower Darwin pressures and vice versa if there's present +VP200 anomalies.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10947 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:26 pm

LarryWx wrote:Today’s 2 Euro runs suggest that after the next two days that there will be a dominating -SOI for most of the subsequent 8+ days (I think tomorrow and Saturday will actually be positive as Darwin comes down). Much of this is due to relatively high Darwin SLPs most days. As a matter of fact, 7/8 and 7/12 could be close to 1016. Also, Tahiti gets low late in the run. So, the most -SOIs of the next 10 days may actually end up toward the end.
Considering what lies ahead SOI-wise, El Niño could return within a few weeks though there often is a couple of week lag.

Yup.

What's confusing is that the models GFS, JMA, CFS, Euro) show the MJO going into phase 1 and 2 which would mean rising motion over the Atlantic and Africa, and more sinking motion over the CPAC/EPAC, but at the same time, showing rising motion remaining situated over the Pacific, and sinking motion continuing to sit over Atlantic and Africa. . And the SOI actually backs the latter depictions. I don't know what's going on
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10948 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:14 pm

Excellent article by Tom Di Liberto (part of the NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's ENSO team) on the difficulties of forecasting the strength of ENSO events:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-forecast-mash-ups-what%E2%80%99s-best-way-combine-human-expertise-models
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10949 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:01 am

saw this posted on another wx forum, AAM negative for the first time in a while

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10950 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:07 am

FWIW, July Euro seasonal shows less coolong than the CFS and keeps a weak El Nino through ASO before fading it to warm neutral during NDJ.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10951 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jul 05, 2019 12:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:FWIW, July Euro seasonal shows less coolong than the CFS and keeps a weak El Nino through ASO before fading it to warm neutral during NDJ.


Well, it is the Euro lol. Not a surprise.

Also, no surprise as well that is warmer than the CFS, which is too cold right now due to the recent EWB
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10952 Postby Tailspin » Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:54 pm

The common belief is if any , or what left of it is fading away.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10953 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:28 am

Just a friendly reminder of how bad the Euro has continued to perform with ENSO.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10954 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:36 am

Current low-level westerly wind anomalies do not seem to be changing the status quo. There have been minor fluctuations in NINO 3.4 and some warming in NINO 4, while NINO 1+2 have cooled. Weak Modoki El Niño conditions are continuing as of now. Even if they were to persist through the hurricane season, the effect on the MDR and eastern Caribbean would be modest at best, given the placement of various atmospheric and oceanic features (coupling). We could still see an above-average season, coincident with weak Modoki El Niño (though neutral ENSO is more probable).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10955 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:22 am

Daily SOI is once again negative (even though weak) against forecast. The mid latitude patterns has not yet felt entirely the prior EWB/weakening state.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10956 Postby StruThiO » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:23 am

Subsurface heat is weak and shallow now. Nino 3 and 1+2 are tanking.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10957 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:41 am

:uarrow: It's in trouble. Let's see if the SOI will be enough to bring it back in the next few weeks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10958 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:41 am

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: It's in trouble. Let's see if the SOI will be enough to bring it back in the next few weeks.


Meh, SOI is just a proxy for WWB activity and all there is on that front is an anemic brief WWB then back to the same slightly reduced trades look there's been for a few weeks
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10959 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:04 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10960 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:52 pm

SFLcane wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/nightriderfl/status/1147885675158618112[url]

Atmosphere in El Nino or not, it's usually the warm SSTA over Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 during an El Nino that influence higher than average shear over the Caribbean and some parts of the MDR. That's very likely not going to be the case this season.
Where the atmosphere being in El Nino will play a key role, is with how much and how long sinking of motion will be present over the Atlantic ocean.
Image
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