ENSO Updates

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SFLcane
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10961 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:57 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10962 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
SFLcane wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/nightriderfl/status/1147885675158618112[url]

Atmosphere in El Nino or not, it's usually the warm SSTA over Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 during an El Nino that influence higher than average shear over the Caribbean and some parts of the MDR. That's very likely not going to be the case this season.
Where the atmosphere being in El Nino will play a key role, is with how much and how long sinking of motion will be present over the Atlantic ocean.
https://i.imgur.com/xjWJaSW.png


By no means I am expecting a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season but surely chances for a below average season if El Nino was to stick around are going down which was many early forecasts. Look at last year with all of the sinking motion over the Atlantic and a very active EPAC the Atlantic was still slightly above average.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10963 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:08 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: It's in trouble. Let's see if the SOI will be enough to bring it back in the next few weeks.


Meh, SOI is just a proxy for WWB activity and all there is on that front is an anemic brief WWB then back to the same slightly reduced trades look there's been for a few weeks

Not true. The way we visualize it is through low level wind activity and through VP200 anomalies. But it's a associated with the complex web of teleconnections as well as the Walker circulation. There's been studies on the SOI impacts since the early 1960's. It is the atmospheric component of ENSO (the SO part). Not saying it will "re-energize" El Nino and warm up the Nino regions, but I think all it can do at this point unless a new downwelling KW emerges is just slow the cooling at the surface.
But it being in its current state will likely have some effects on TC activity during hurricane season, and if it continues to be negative through the fall, it will affect winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10964 Postby StruThiO » Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:11 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10965 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:12 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
SFLcane wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/nightriderfl/status/1147885675158618112[url]

Atmosphere in El Nino or not, it's usually the warm SSTA over Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 during an El Nino that influence higher than average shear over the Caribbean and some parts of the MDR. That's very likely not going to be the case this season.
Where the atmosphere being in El Nino will play a key role, is with how much and how long sinking of motion will be present over the Atlantic ocean.
https://i.imgur.com/xjWJaSW.png


By no means I am expecting a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season but surely chances for a below average season if El Nino was to stick around are going down which was many early forecasts. Look at last year with all of the sinking motion over the Atlantic and a very active EPAC the Atlantic was still slightly above average.

I completely agree. That's why I went with near average numbers as well.
The sinking motion will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season but there's a good chance that it will be harder to get MDR systems. So I'm thinking all the activity will be confined closer Caribbean and GOM and of course the northern Atlantic. Healthy El Nino's usually carry the 1-2 punch of high shear and sinking motion over the Atlantic. Last year and this year, the shear was non existent due to the El Nino's being weak.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10966 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:18 pm

I thought that Fri and Sat were going to have slightly +SOIs but they were small -SOIs instead. Today's went back to solid -SOI as expected. Look for a further drop tomorrow thanks to a likely 1016+ at Darwin. The 12Z Euro suggests that after coming back down into the 1014s on 7/10, Darwin will rise to above 1016 for both 7/12 and 7/13 before heading back down at least into the 1014s and maybe 1013s 7/15-8. Meanwhile, it has Tahiti coming down to near or below 1012 7/14-5 and rising back only slowly to the 1012s to near 1013 7/16-18. Keep in mind that the Euro SLPs tend to be biased a bit high, especially at Tahiti.
This means the Euro is predicting nearly all -SOIs the next 10+ days, though 7/10 may have a slightly +SOI, with some days solidly -SOI perhaps getting down into the -20s.

So, at least from the SOI's standpoint, El Nino doesn't look dead at all.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10967 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:04 pm

It's really odd how persistently negative the SOI has been despite a rapidly cooling surface and subsurface, and we haven't had a major WWB since May.

This week's Niño 3.4 value should be below +0.5°C once again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10968 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:18 pm

LarryWx wrote:I thought that Fri and Sat were going to have slightly +SOIs but they were small -SOIs instead. Today's went back to solid -SOI as expected. Look for a further drop tomorrow thanks to a likely 1016+ at Darwin. The 12Z Euro suggests that after coming back down into the 1014s on 7/10, Darwin will rise to above 1016 for both 7/12 and 7/13 before heading back down at least into the 1014s and maybe 1013s 7/15-8. Meanwhile, it has Tahiti coming down to near or below 1012 7/14-5 and rising back only slowly to the 1012s to near 1013 7/16-18. Keep in mind that the Euro SLPs tend to be biased a bit high, especially at Tahiti.
This means the Euro is predicting nearly all -SOIs the next 10+ days, though 7/10 may have a slightly +SOI, with some days solidly -SOI perhaps getting down into the -20s.

So, at least from the SOI's standpoint, El Nino doesn't look dead at all.


If the Euro forecast verifies, then we'll be running out of time to get the July SOI monthly reading to support cool neutral or La Nina progression. We'll need a strong MJO signal to initiate over the MC after July 20 for the SOI to recover (though the MJO -> MC progression has failed to bring the SOI positive since late spring). No hints of this happening yet with the models continuing to show the MJO struggle getting past Africa, but this could change.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10969 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:21 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:It's really odd how persistently negative the SOI has been despite a rapidly cooling surface and subsurface, and we haven't had a major WWB since May.

This week's Niño 3.4 value should be below +0.5°C once again.

Although I haven't been monitoring ENSO closely for long (only started in 2016), I've never seen the ocean trying to force La Nina and the atmosphere trying to force El Nino. It's usually the opposite. Nothing much to say other than just have to wait and see.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10970 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:55 pm

BOM has Nino 3.4 up to +0.6.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10971 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:12 am

Will be 0.6C at the update later this morning
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10972 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:48 am

Text of the CPC weekly update that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10973 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:50 am

1+2 stays at -0.3 and 3 dropped to 0.2 (was 0.4 last week)


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10974 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:16 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:1+2 stays at -0.3 and 3 dropped to 0.2 (was 0.4 last week)


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Dang CDAS really overdoing the cooling then
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10975 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:32 am

Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:1+2 stays at -0.3 and 3 dropped to 0.2 (was 0.4 last week)


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Dang CDAS really overdoing the cooling then


I have no idea what CDAS uses to obtain its values. It has always been fishy to me. Dont really trust it but thats just me.


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10976 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:33 am

Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:1+2 stays at -0.3 and 3 dropped to 0.2 (was 0.4 last week)


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Dang CDAS really overdoing the cooling then


That's why I don't trust CDAS too much, it seems to be very extreme & bipolar at times, one day it shows a warm Atlantic MDR the next day a very cool Atlantic MDR :lol:
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10977 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:40 pm

The July NMME is MUCH cooler! I expect a huge drop from CPC for El Nino chances this fall/winter.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10978 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:37 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10979 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
LarryWx wrote:I thought that Fri and Sat were going to have slightly +SOIs but they were small -SOIs instead. Today's went back to solid -SOI as expected. Look for a further drop tomorrow thanks to a likely 1016+ at Darwin. The 12Z Euro suggests that after coming back down into the 1014s on 7/10, Darwin will rise to above 1016 for both 7/12 and 7/13 before heading back down at least into the 1014s and maybe 1013s 7/15-8. Meanwhile, it has Tahiti coming down to near or below 1012 7/14-5 and rising back only slowly to the 1012s to near 1013 7/16-18. Keep in mind that the Euro SLPs tend to be biased a bit high, especially at Tahiti.
This means the Euro is predicting nearly all -SOIs the next 10+ days, though 7/10 may have a slightly +SOI, with some days solidly -SOI perhaps getting down into the -20s.

So, at least from the SOI's standpoint, El Nino doesn't look dead at all.


If the Euro forecast verifies, then we'll be running out of time to get the July SOI monthly reading to support cool neutral or La Nina progression. We'll need a strong MJO signal to initiate over the MC after July 20 for the SOI to recover (though the MJO -> MC progression has failed to bring the SOI positive since late spring). No hints of this happening yet with the models continuing to show the MJO struggle getting past Africa, but this could change.

Looks like a strong suppressed CCKW and a developing suppressed MJO phase to sit over the MC to close off July and possibly into August, while an active CCKW setups up over the EPAC again:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1148586919246401536



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1148580551013654528


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10980 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:59 pm

The Euro is finally getting the picture.

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