ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/15/19: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11001 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:57 pm

StruThiO wrote:https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1150839485476814848

This is exactly what I mean that the Fall season encourages +ENSO. While late Spring and Summer seasons encourage -ENSO. I think it could go either way with the ENSO state being in limbo.
1 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 948
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/15/19: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11002 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:12 pm


1986 isn't really a great analog, 1986 was coming off three consecutive -ENSO years. The ENSO regions were steadily warming in the summer of 1986, while in 2019 they have cooled. I'm not sure about the subsurface in 1986, though, but in 2019 it certainly doesn't look very supportive of El Nino.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/15/19: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11003 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:30 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:

1986 isn't really a great analog, 1986 was coming off three consecutive -ENSO years. The ENSO regions were steadily warming in the summer of 1986, while in 2019 they have cooled. I'm not sure about the subsurface in 1986, though, but in 2019 it certainly doesn't look very supportive of El Nino.

I think his point is that there is a chance for El Nino to re-amplify in the fall. Regardless of what happens, other than sinking motion over the open Atlantic, I don't see ENSO being an obstacle towards the Atlantic hurricane season.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17322
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/15/19: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11004 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1150839485476814848[url]

This is exactly what I mean that the Fall season encourages +ENSO. While late Spring and Summer seasons encourage -ENSO. I think it could go either way with the ENSO state being in limbo.


The seasonal normals also play a role. 27.7C in July is +0.4 as we saw today. However 27.7C in October is over +1C.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/15/19: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#11005 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:40 am

Although weak, the El Nino standing wave has been re-establishing itself the past 40 days with help from CCKW activity.
Image
3 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117605
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#11006 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:24 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#11007 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:36 am

0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17322
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#11008 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:25 pm



-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11009 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:


-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1731
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11010 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:44 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:


-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.



I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11011 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:59 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.



I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.

I don't think there was ever a consensus on anything lol
1 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17322
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#11012 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:24 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
-SOI. Months of busted forecast is more than just noise.

Pretty much.



I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.


The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11013 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Pretty much.



I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.


The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.
1 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17322
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#11014 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
SoupBone wrote:

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.


The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.


Folks are often in a rush to proceed with day to day and week to week changes and projecting it. ENSO events are slow to change often taking months and seasons.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1160
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11015 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
SoupBone wrote:

I thought the consensus was that el nino being over was a done deal.


The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.


To be fair though, SOI doesn't have much support behind it, as a lot of other indicators (such as llvl winds) suggest more neutral conditions already, but yeah there is still support for a weak El Niño currently
3 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11016 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:02 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
The consensus is basically what the CPC and IRI have stated. Weak Nino (waning) event with back and forth/mixed signal. We are still officially in an El Nino per ONI that may end in September assuming no new warming occurs.

Officially the CPC has done a pretty good job. Although I think they went too low on their odds for El Nino during ASO, especially considering the state of the SOI. But outside of the CPC and the IRI, there has been quite a bit of disagreement.


To be fair though, SOI doesn't have much support behind it, as a lot of other indicators (such as llvl winds) suggest more neutral conditions already, but yeah there is still support for a weak El Niño currently


I think the correct way to put it from your perspective is that the argument for weak El Nino conditions to continue doesn't have much support other than the state of the SOI and its components.
3 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 948
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11017 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:36 pm

The SOI may be extremely negative but the ocean isn't responding. The subsurface is too cool, and it appears a trade burst is coming soon. While I do not expect a La Niña event like the CFS shows, I think we will see at least a temporary dip into warm neutral ENSO. Niño regrowth cannot be ruled out this fall, but probably not before then.
3 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2976
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11018 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:01 pm

All the indicators are so mixed, I suppose the best guess on what this year would be over-all is neutral. If it's not quite El Nino but not La Nina either, then let's just go with neutral. :lol: Though in the case of neutral years, predicting weather patterns (TC activity) in different portions of the globe is more challenging, unlike in definite El Nino or La Nina years when we can say straightforward that the rainfall or tropical activity in a particular region will be suppressed/amplified.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11053
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11019 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:07 am

Euro had the 18th of July Tahiti pressure at 1014mb. Came in at 1012mb.
1 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 427
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11020 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:38 am

CyclonicFury wrote:The SOI may be extremely negative but the ocean isn't responding. The subsurface is too cool, and it appears a trade burst is coming soon. While I do not expect a La Niña event like the CFS shows, I think we will see at least a temporary dip into warm neutral ENSO. Niño regrowth cannot be ruled out this fall, but probably not before then.

Do you mean cool neutral ENSO? The upcoming trade burst (Rossby-related EWB) looks sufficiently strong to cause some decent and persistent cooling near the IDL, and possibly a bit farther east as well. I think the odds for cool neutral ENSO, especially by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (ASO), have gone up substantially, though La Niña is still a long shot at this point. The overall, slow-motion, long-term trend on all atmospheric and oceanic fronts, relative to model biases and adjustments, is definitely weighted toward neutral or cool neutral ENSO by ASO, though there will be fluctuations. A few months ago I was leaning toward warm neutral to dead neutral ENSO by ASO, but now I've had to adjust to a more bullish, cooler outlook for the peak of the Atlantic TC season, though I'm certainly not as aggressive as the La Niña-leaning CFSv2 at this juncture.
4 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005
The views herein are the author's alone. Please defer to the N.H.C./N.W.S. for official information.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], CrazyC83, HurricaneRyan, Weather Dude and 32 guests