CyclonicFury wrote:The SOI may be extremely negative but the ocean isn't responding. The subsurface is too cool, and it appears a trade burst is coming soon. While I do not expect a La Niña event like the CFS shows, I think we will see at least a temporary dip into warm neutral ENSO. Niño regrowth cannot be ruled out this fall, but probably not before then.
Do you mean cool neutral ENSO? The upcoming trade burst (Rossby-related EWB) looks sufficiently strong to cause some decent and persistent cooling near the IDL, and possibly a bit farther east as well. I think the odds for cool neutral ENSO, especially by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (ASO), have gone up substantially, though La Niña is still a long shot at this point. The overall, slow-motion, long-term trend on all atmospheric and oceanic fronts, relative to model biases and adjustments, is definitely weighted toward neutral or cool neutral ENSO by ASO, though there will be fluctuations. A few months ago I was leaning toward warm neutral to dead neutral ENSO by ASO, but now I've had to adjust to a more bullish, cooler outlook for the peak of the Atlantic TC season, though I'm certainly not as aggressive as the La Niña-leaning CFSv2 at this juncture.