ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/19/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.1C

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11021 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:42 am

Lack of Sea level heights over the WPAC shows that there are currently no new signs of a downwelling Kelvin wave or any warm anomalies propagating west to east:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11022 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:34 pm

Despite its La Nina calls and it showing a long lasting period of above average trades over the EPAC, the CFS continues to show an atmospheric El Nino standing wave persisting over the dateline:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11023 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Despite its La Nina calls and it showing a long lasting period of above average trades over the EPAC, the CFS continues to show an atmospheric El Nino standing wave persisting over the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/LibGEUr.png


This is why it's not always wise to simply ignore the SOI just because it doesn't fit the reasoning, it's trying to tell you something. In particular the long version of it. There are numerous metrics, but to isolate one metric over the all of them as a whole trying to signal something is not the best way to go about it. Take a look at the recent CCKW crossing the CPAC/EPAC. It has origins of rossby wave action in the mid-latitues near and about Australia. Completely missing the Maritime Continent (WPAC got nothing out of this) but expanded, exploded over the IDL and will weaken once it hits the Atlantic/Africa. What the divergent data from the CFSv2 is telling us, is that more action like this will continue emanating from the SOI domain, and that the mid-latitudes are not simply reacting but can also play a role.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11024 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Despite its La Nina calls and it showing a long lasting period of above average trades over the EPAC, the CFS continues to show an atmospheric El Nino standing wave persisting over the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/LibGEUr.png


I wonder if this is seperate from the kind predicting a La Niña. It can't be disagreeing w/ itself this much
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11025 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Despite its La Nina calls and it showing a long lasting period of above average trades over the EPAC, the CFS continues to show an atmospheric El Nino standing wave persisting over the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/LibGEUr.png


This is why it's not always wise to simply ignore the SOI just because it doesn't fit the reasoning, it's trying to tell you something. In particular the long version of it. There are numerous metrics, but to isolate one metric over the all of them as a whole trying to signal something is not the best way to go about it. Take a look at the recent CCKW crossing the CPAC/EPAC. It has origins of rossby wave action in the mid-latitues near and about Australia. Completely missing the Maritime Continent (WPAC got nothing out of this) but expanded, exploded over the IDL and will weaken once it hits the Atlantic/Africa. What the divergent data from the CFSv2 is telling us, is that more action like this will continue emanating from the SOI domain, and that the mid-latitudes are not simply reacting but can also play a role.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/ofTX4qe.gif[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/NOToxVJ.gif[url]

Yeah certainly. Great way to put it. The MC and Australia have been a driving force. Yesterday's 00z Euro run shows no signs of this activity slowing down and continues a negative leaning SOI. It's showing Tahiti's pressure rising to near 1015mb for the last 7 days of July, and also pushes Darwin's MSLP to near 1015mb.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11026 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:26 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Despite its La Nina calls and it showing a long lasting period of above average trades over the EPAC, the CFS continues to show an atmospheric El Nino standing wave persisting over the dateline:
https://i.imgur.com/LibGEUr.png


I wonder if this is seperate from the kind predicting a La Niña. It can't be disagreeing w/ itself this much

Something is off. It's like it's not coupled properly.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11027 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 20, 2019 6:38 pm

Despite all of the above come Monday's official weekly reading will lower again. Would not be surprised if it came in anywhere from 0C to 0.2C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11028 Postby StruThiO » Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:22 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11029 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:37 pm

:uarrow: The SOI may be negative but that is NOT the look of an El Niño. We may stay below +0.5°C in Niño 3.4 for a while.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11030 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:51 pm

CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow: The SOI may be negative but that is NOT the look of an El Niño. We may stay below +0.5°C in Niño 3.4 for a while.

Ocean at best resembles Modoki El Nino and even those warm anomalies are not near Nino 3.4.

So ocean is neutral and atmosphere is El Nino is what I'm currently gathering. Very funny. This is once in a long while scenario.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11031 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:56 am

Today’s update shows 3.4 down to 0.2C and 1+2 is at -0.3C


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11032 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:09 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Today’s update shows 3.4 down to 0.2C and 1+2 is at -0.3C


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Yep, and Nino 3 also down to 0.0C, dead neutral.
Nino 4 is the only one remaining warm, staying at +0.9C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11033 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:56 am

NDG wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Today’s update shows 3.4 down to 0.2C and 1+2 is at -0.3C


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Yep, and Nino 3 also down to 0.0C, dead neutral.
Nino 4 is the only one remaining warm, staying at +0.9C


I read a few posts that while the ocean has cooles a bit, the atmosphere still shows some el nino behavior. So lets say the ocean continues to cool into the cool neutral range. What are the chances we have a slightly cool neutral ocean with a slightly el nino like atmosphere?


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11034 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:00 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NDG wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Today’s update shows 3.4 down to 0.2C and 1+2 is at -0.3C


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Yep, and Nino 3 also down to 0.0C, dead neutral.
Nino 4 is the only one remaining warm, staying at +0.9C


I read a few posts that while the ocean has cooles a bit, the atmosphere still shows some el nino behavior. So lets say the ocean continues to cool into the cool neutral range. What are the chances we have a slightly cool neutral ocean with a slightly el nino like atmosphere?


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I doubt that will happen, either it stays warm neutral or the atmosphere eventually reacts to the cooling of ENSO. IMO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11035 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:45 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11036 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:27 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11037 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:25 am

What does El Nino Modoki type II mean? (I didn't even know there were two types.)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11038 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:51 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11039 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:22 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11040 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:30 am


If I remember correctly, the ECMWF did well with ENSO in 2015, 2016 and 2018, but was way too warm in Niño 3.4 in 2017 and 2019. 2017 was an especially bad forecast bust for the model.
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