ENSO: CPC November update: Neutral thru Spring 2020

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SoupBone
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11061 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:40 am

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Today's 12z Euro shows the SOI daily's being mildly negative until August 5. From August 6 to August 11, the Euro has Darwin's MSLP averaging near 1013, and for that same period it has the pressures @ Tahiti averaging near 1016.75mb. That's a very positive SOI.


Today’s 0Z Euro says that after that mainly +SOI period that 8/12-15 looks like a solidly -SOI period once again, especially 8/13-4.



I remain confused, and the roller coaster continues. :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11062 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:11 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11063 Postby StruThiO » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:52 am

Gfs forecast is still for a strong trade surge

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11064 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:20 pm

StruThiO wrote:Gfs forecast is still for a strong trade surge

https://i.imgur.com/MjKk9ra.jpg

At this (late) stage in the game, the trade surge won't substantially change the picture for ASO...the season seems set to be average or below average.

Overall, weak El Niño conditions seem likely to persist through the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, regardless of the short-term, low-level trades.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11065 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:39 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Gfs forecast is still for a strong trade surge

https://i.imgur.com/MjKk9ra.jpg

At this (late) stage in the game, the trade surge won't substantially change the picture for ASO...the season seems set to be average or below average.

Overall, weak El Niño conditions seem likely to persist through the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, regardless of the short-term, low-level trades.

The latest weekly Niño 3.4 value was just barely at +0.5°C. However, the Niño 3 and 1.2 regions are cooler than average. We likely won't see too much cooling, but it wouldn't be too surprising to see Niño 3.4 dip below +0.5°C again with the trade burst. This just barely qualifies as an El Niño event right now, and a true Modoki one too. If Niño 3.4 cools further, ENSO will be neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11066 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:04 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC August update: ENSO has transitioned to Neutral

#11067 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:11 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 August 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: El Niño has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance).

During July, ENSO-neutral conditions were reflected by the combination of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs in the central Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly ENSO indices were +1.0°C, +0.5°C, -0.2°C and -0.5°C in the Niño-4, Niño-3.4, Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were near average throughout the month [Fig. 3], as anomalously cool waters prevailed in the eastern Pacific and anomalously warm waters continued in the central Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while near-average convection was observed near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were near average over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were easterly over the east-central Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Indices remained slightly negative. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with a transition to ENSO-neutral.

The latest IRI/CPC plume of forecasts of the Niño-3.4 index [Fig. 6] favors ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C), with index values greater than zero from late Northern Hemisphere summer into fall, warming closer to the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) by winter. Atypically, dynamical models forecast weaker positive SST anomalies than statistical models throughout most of the forecast period. As a result, while forecasters favor ENSO-neutral conditions, the odds of El Niño (~30%) are roughly twice that of La Niña for next winter. In summary, El Niño has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume

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Re: ENSO: CPC August update: ENSO has transitioned to Neutral

#11068 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:14 pm

Still looks pretty warm Neutral to me though.
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Re: ENSO: CPC August update: ENSO has transitioned to Neutral

#11069 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:19 pm

Neutral just like I said it would be 2 month ago
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Re: ENSO: CPC Blog=Stick a fork on El Niño

#11070 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:24 pm

Great discussion by CPC on why they issued their last El Niño Advisory in the August update.

ENSO BLOG=Stick a fork in it
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Re: ENSO: CPC Blog=Stick a fork on El Niño

#11071 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:57 pm

To be honest though I thought we would see a quick transition to cold ENSO by late Summer as what many people here were suggesting after the strong trade bursts in the dateline and the dwindling subsurface warm pool.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11072 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:58 pm

I’m
LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Today's 12z Euro shows the SOI daily's being mildly negative until August 5. From August 6 to August 11, the Euro has Darwin's MSLP averaging near 1013, and for that same period it has the pressures @ Tahiti averaging near 1016.75mb. That's a very positive SOI.


Today’s 0Z Euro says that after that mainly +SOI period that 8/12-15 looks like a solidly -SOI period once again, especially 8/13-4.


I have no changes vs the above except I think the strongest negative won’t be til 8/15, when it could easily be down into the -20s. The 12Z Euro confirms a string of -SOIs starting tomorrow. Fasten your seatbelts, folks!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11073 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:28 am

Nino 3.4 back down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 down to -0.6C, Nino 3 up to +0.1C and Nino 4 down to +0.9C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11074 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:30 am

NDG wrote:Nino 3.4 back down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 down to -0.6C, Nino 3 up to +0.1C and Nino 4 down to +0.9C


Text.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/12/19: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#11075 Postby StruThiO » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:27 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11076 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:31 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11077 Postby StruThiO » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:44 am

-4C anomalies popping up in the subsurface.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11078 Postby NotSparta » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:14 am

StruThiO wrote:-4C anomalies popping up in the subsurface.

https://i.imgur.com/i5LM2bu.jpg


Where'd that come from? Just a couple days ago it was only -1 or 2°C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11079 Postby StruThiO » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:28 am

NotSparta wrote:Where'd that come from? Just a couple days ago it was only -1 or 2°C


Maybe feeling the recent short trade surge? Or maybe an error?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11080 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:54 pm

Those -4C anomalies could be real. However this just shows how little we know about ENSO. We still don't know how and why cool or warm pools are triggered and what factors in them being strong or not. I've seen a lot of cases where advertised trades do not promote cooling at the surface/subsurface and vice versa with westerlies not promoting warmth. Example: back in March and April when the cold upwelling KW was triggered, it was seemingly triggered with little trade support.
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