ENSO Updates

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StruThiO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11101 Postby StruThiO » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:12 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11102 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:33 am

The CPC September update has Neutral conditions lasting thru Spring 2020.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 September 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~75% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance).

During August, ENSO-neutral continued as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 indices were -0.2°C and 0.0°C, respectively, with the westernmost Niño-4 region index remaining above average (0.5°C) and the easternmost Niño-1+2 region index remaining below average (-0.6°C; [Fig. 2]). Upper-ocean subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased slightly during the month [Fig. 3], with below-average temperatures strengthening in the east-central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over parts of Indonesia, while near-average convection was evident near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Interestingly, the statistical model averages favor Niño-3.4 values above the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) during the fall and winter, while the dynamical model average indicates values near +0.2°C. Forecasters are leaning toward the dynamical model average, which is also supported by the current tendency of the ocean toward cooler conditions. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~75% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11103 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:35 pm

SOI continues to depict the atmosphere in El Nino with the 30 day down to -10.70 and more importantly the 90 day, which is at -8.70. If this continues to persist into October and November, I would say some areas in the CONUS can expect an El Nino winter pattern.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11104 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:33 pm

What to make of all this :?:

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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11105 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:40 pm

:uarrow: If that keeps up,then no El Niño will show up for the 2020 Summer and if so,it has important implications to the Atlantic and EPAC hurricane seasons.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11106 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:44 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: If that keeps up,then no El Niño will show up for the 2020 Summer and if so,it has important implications to the Atlantic and EPAC hurricane seasons.

It's possible, but after all the Nino busts we've had in recent years, I'm skeptical. Models were in great agreement El Nino would persist into the summer/fall this year and instead we are at cool neutral. However, the atmosphere is more El Nino like than La Nina like, so that's something to watch this winter.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11107 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:10 pm

Still...the forecasts aren’t exactly “Switzerland” neutral. They are tilted warm. We shall see. I think a warm bias exists in all these ENSO models.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11108 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:30 pm

9/16 weeklies

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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11109 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:15 pm

StruThiO wrote:What to make of all this :?:

[url]https://i.imgur.com/sllORaU.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Lz7smkr.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/p6Pjlow.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/VDktLb7.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Dk28f2K.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/102Q957.png[url]

Ocean wants a La Nina while the atmosphere continues to push for El Nino. I've only been tracking ENSO for a limited time (5-6 years) but this years ENSO event has been abnormal in my opinion. We still have a good 45 days of hurricane season left so it won't be too long to see how this years setup affected the hurricane seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11110 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Ocean wants a La Nina while the atmosphere continues to push for El Nino. I've only been tracking ENSO for a limited time (5-6 years) but this years ENSO event has been abnormal in my opinion. We still have a good 45 days of hurricane season left so it won't be too long to see how this years setup affected the hurricane seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic.


The disconnect between solidly negative SOI and very well defined +IOD and +PDO patterns superimposed on the cooling equatorial Pacific east of the Antimeridian sure is a head scratcher to me, too. Meanwhile robust Maritime Continent subsidence continues, however, convection is no longer enhanced over the Dateline.

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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11111 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:25 pm

Upwelling Kelvin wave activity continues to carve out cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific

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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11112 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:28 pm

StruThiO wrote:Upwelling Kelvin wave activity continues to carve out cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific

[imi.imgur.com/7Zz6ced.png[/img]


Just want to make sure I get this right, but upwelling Kelvin wave promotes cooler anomalies correct?


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Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring

#11113 Postby jfk08c » Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:10 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Upwelling Kelvin wave activity continues to carve out cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific

[imi.imgur.com/7Zz6ced.png[/url]


Just want to make sure I get this right, but upwelling Kelvin wave promotes cooler anomalies correct?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave brings cooler waters from deeper parts of the ocean and mixes them with the warmer surface waters. This causes cooler SST anomalies
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11114 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:00 pm

Okay.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11115 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:34 pm


Well ENSO is broken this year so this is the cherry on top.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11116 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:50 pm

9/23 update

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11117 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:51 pm

And just like that the CFS has shifted back to a weak La Niña for winter. It cannot make up its mind. A continuation of ENSO-neutral through spring seems the most likely, IMO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11118 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:51 pm

Saw this article earlier, sorry if it was posted previously.

https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2019-09-16-2019-to-be-one-of-strongest-iod-years-on-record-expert

IOD seems to be intimately related to ENSO, so figured it'd be good to post here :D
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11119 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:11 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:And just like that the CFS has shifted back to a weak La Niña for winter. It cannot make up its mind. A continuation of ENSO-neutral through spring seems the most likely, IMO.

SOI also has big impacts on CONUS winter. I'm pretty sure Joe Basatrdi is loving it right now and it may help his call for a Modoki El Nino winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11120 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:And just like that the CFS has shifted back to a weak La Niña for winter. It cannot make up its mind. A continuation of ENSO-neutral through spring seems the most likely, IMO.

SOI also has big impacts on CONUS winter. I'm pretty sure Joe Basatrdi is loving it right now and it may help his call for a Modoki El Nino winter.


Though the Far Eastern Pacific is more cold neutral (for now) if taken into the entire tropical template of the globe, it is very reminiscent of a modoki event. It explains the discourse between the SOI and eastern tropical Pacific. MC is too cold for an atmospheric Nina, they are canceling each other out.

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