ENSO: CPC November update: Neutral thru Spring 2020

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11049
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11141 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:59 pm

NDG wrote:ENSO regions cooled down last week:

Nino 1+2 down to -1.0C
Nino 3 down to -0.1C
Nino 3.4 slightly down down to +0.4C
Nino 4 slightly down to +0.9C


GFS is starting to show the strong trade burst event that's sitting over the IO move east into the WPAC.
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11049
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11142 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:05 pm

This sudden cool to warm switch for ENSO reminds me of the warm to cool switch back in May. Very abrupt and probably not in most peoples forecasts.It's probably going to disturb winter weather patterns.

Image
Image

There's still a chance that a strong trade wind burst makes it over the main Nino regions but it continues to be confined mainly over the IO.
Image
5 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 945
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11143 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:13 pm

Latest
Nino 4 +1.1C
Nino 3.4 +0.8C
Nino 3 +0.4C
Nino 1.2 -0.2C

I wonder if CPC is going to have to re-issue an El Nino watch. This was unexpected, considering Nino 3.4 briefly dipped into cold neutral territory last month.
4 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11049
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11144 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:40 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Latest
Nino 4 +1.1C
Nino 3.4 +0.8C
Nino 3 +0.4C
Nino 1.2 -0.2C

I wonder if CPC is going to have to re-issue an El Nino watch. This was unexpected, considering Nino 3.4 briefly dipped into cold neutral territory last month.

This is going to mess with ONI for sure. But unless there's a full fledged WWB, I doubt they will. There's also a pretty good chance that above average trades will soon return over the main Nino regions and that probably means all this warming may be paused.
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1279
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11145 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:39 pm

Where did you get the info. on the 3.4@.8c. Tropical tidbits has it at .26
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/ :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 618
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11146 Postby StruThiO » Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:59 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Where did you get the info.


Tidbits is superseded by CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11049
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11147 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:40 pm

Buoys showing a possible upwelling Kelvin wave beginning to push east.
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11320
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11148 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:16 am

Eastern ENSO regions have cooled down once again.

Code: Select all

               Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino3.4       Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA      SST SSTA      SST SSTA
23OCT2019     19.7 -1.3     25.0 +0.1     27.3 +0.6     29.7 +1.0
1 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2943
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11149 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:05 am

A very volatile Nino 3.4 tells me that the ENSO state is still perfectly neutral.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11049
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11150 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:12 pm

Todays update has Nino 3.4 up to +0.7C.
3 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 618
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11151 Postby StruThiO » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:15 pm

ONI for ASO is +0.1C
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11049
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11152 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:25 pm

StruThiO wrote:ONI for ASO is +0.1C

Just based off ONI, ENSO is still warm neutral... Hanging by a thread.

Current 850mb wind forecast from the GFS is also abnormal. Strong westerlies over the WPAC and strong easterlies over the dateline and CPAC.
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11320
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11153 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:14 am

The up and down continues.

Nino 1+2 down to -0.6C
Nino 3 down to +0.3C
Nino 3+4 down to +0.5C
Nino 4 down to +07C
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11049
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11154 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:41 pm

NDG wrote:The up and down continues.

Nino 1+2 down to -0.6C
Nino 3 down to +0.3C
Nino 3+4 down to +0.5C
Nino 4 down to +07C


Also a solid dateline/CPAC WWB seems to be on the way, continuing the seesawing:
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117566
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC November update: Neutral thru Spring 2020

#11155 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:08 am

Here is the November CPC update that has Neutral conditions thru the Spring of 2020.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 November 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance).

Near-to-above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean during October [Fig. 1]. In the most recent week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +0.7°C and +0.5°C, respectively, while farther east in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions they were near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average during the month [Fig. 3] as a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that began in September continued progressing eastward into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average during October, while easterly upper-level wind anomalies were observed over the eastern Pacific. Finally, tropical convection was suppressed near the Date Line and also over Indonesia, while somewhat enhanced convection prevailed over the western Pacific, northeast of Papua New Guinea [Fig. 5]. Overall, despite the recent anomalous warming across the east-central equatorial Pacific, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: colbroe, EquusStorm, galaxy401, Google Adsense [Bot] and 26 guests