ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11181 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:30 pm


I think it comes down to what MJO/CCKW activity does over the Pacific in the next few months.

Surprisingly the MJO will be back over the Pacific soon, making it its 2nd trip in that phase in less than 3 weeks. The MJO typically takes 30-45 days to circle the planet, and so if the MJO continues to frequent the Pacific this often, it's what we normally see during pre-El Nino. Models are differing with the amplitude with the GFS stronger and the Euro weaker. GFS could be over doing it, as it did the same thing last year only for the MJO to be weaker. Of course with the MJO (regardless of strength) comes westerly winds, and the GFS has a WWB in its forecast. This will likely mean the subsurface will remain warm if not become warmer.

The pattern from prior years seems to be continuing but as 2017 and 2019 showed, we could still get La Nina or Neutral. I like where the CPC has its odds.
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Re: ENSO: CPC January update: 50% chance of Neutral thru Summer

#11182 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:21 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11183 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:56 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11184 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:06 pm

:uarrow:
IMO Weather-heads have been quieter than normal on social media about the warming subsurface and the repeat WWB's near the dateline. I think it's due to what's happened in the past three years, as people will bring up the El Nino fail in 2017, weaker than advertised El Nino in 2018, and another El Nino fail that lead to warm Neutral in 2019. However it's normal to see El Nino attempts during a warm PDO regime. Plus what doesn't help the Nino argument is that the models continue to show a La Nina for the summer.

What Eric Webb is tweeting is 100% true. It has been like this since late fall. We'll have to wait and see if something disrupts the process similar to last year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11185 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:15 am

CPC reverted their subsurface graphic back to the old color scheme:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11186 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:24 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11187 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:33 am

Kingarabian wrote:CPC reverted their subsurface graphic back to the old color scheme:
https://i.imgur.com/duBPZFn.png


Ah, so much better
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11188 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:39 pm

Nino 3.4 down to +0.5C this week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11189 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:05 am

will be neutral conditions again
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11190 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:17 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:will be neutral conditions again

You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11191 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:38 pm

OHC has been steadily rising and is approaching the same levels from last spring, with the core of the warmth in the WPAC/CPAC.
Image

Present subsurface snapshot doesn't scream full fledged El Nino. But the thermocline continues to be suppressed with the mean 29C and 28C lines well into the CPAC. 25C and 24C are present off of Peru. So despite the models trying to push for La Nina, the temperature profiles @ the subsurface are far from a La Nina.There is a building upwelling Kelvin wave that pushed off the MC, but with this substantial WWB event beginning I think it will be kept in check. We'll probably start to see +4C/+5C anomalies building as well.
Image

Key thing here is how long all these "El Nino indicators" persist. The 12z Euro shows lower than normal pressures over Darwin and normal Tahiti pressures for the next 10 days -- which mean a positive leaning SOI. Latest EPS 46 day by the end of its run, is hinting that the IO standing wave could move over the MC which could mean that the atmosphere is opening the door towards La Nina. On the contrary, per RMM the latest GFS and Euro runs show the MJO not making it to the IO and MC and bring it back over the WPAC again:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11192 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:31 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:will be neutral conditions again

You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.



I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11193 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:34 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11194 Postby tolakram » Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:41 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:will be neutral conditions again

You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.



I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11195 Postby Hammy » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:12 am

tolakram wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:You can't make definitive ENSO forecasts for hurricane season in January. All options are still possible, including Neutral, El Niño and La Niña.



I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.


Isn't there also a general rule of sorts not to come to any conclusions with El Nino prior to April?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11196 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:02 pm

Hammy wrote:
tolakram wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:

I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.


Isn't there also a general rule of sorts not to come to any conclusions with El Nino prior to April?

Yes, the so called Spring Barrier should shed some light come May.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11197 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:56 pm

Hammy wrote:
tolakram wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:

I said the same thing last year and look what happened, Models struggled on it bad the last 2 years and it will struggle again. Neutral conditions again just watch my man.


So are you claiming to be correct because of science and observation, or dumb luck? I don't like definitive statements, I think they're silly. Discussion is good, and interesting, which is what this thread is about. The only definitive statement that really works at this point is we have no clue what the future holds.


Isn't there also a general rule of sorts not to come to any conclusions with El Nino prior to April?

When ENSO is switching to weak La Nina or El Nino, and even Neutral, it's tough to know before May. Moderate (or stronger) La Nina's and El Nino's can be easier to predict through late winter and spring due to a lot of atmospheric and oceanic momentum pointing the favored way, but this too is not always the case.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11198 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:09 pm

Also wanted to point out how this WWB and recent WWB's since late fall have not just been anomalously weaker trades, but they are actual real and strong westerly winds present and moving across the CPAC:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11199 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:56 am

The MJO has a active convective mode (rising motion) and suppressed convective mode (sinking motion). Usually after the MJO active convective mode passes a region, the suppressed mode fills in which leads to less convection and at the same time, opens the door for trades to become above average within the region. Some interesting developments is that the CFS and EPS both show the suppressed mode of the MJO not impacting the dateline as they showed 3-4 days ago. Looks like a weak and fragile El Nino "standing wave" setting up and overpowering the MJO signal. We'll see if this lasts. Last year we saw similar scenarios only for El Nino to break down by the start of summer.

EPS:
Old
Image
New
Image
Credit: Ryan Maue @ http://www.Weathermodels.com

CFS:
Image
Carl Schreck @ NCICS.org

Edit: GFS joining the party:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11200 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:24 pm

Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C this week.
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