I think it comes down to what MJO/CCKW activity does over the Pacific in the next few months.
Surprisingly the MJO will be back over the Pacific soon, making it its 2nd trip in that phase in less than 3 weeks. The MJO typically takes 30-45 days to circle the planet, and so if the MJO continues to frequent the Pacific this often, it's what we normally see during pre-El Nino. Models are differing with the amplitude with the GFS stronger and the Euro weaker. GFS could be over doing it, as it did the same thing last year only for the MJO to be weaker. Of course with the MJO (regardless of strength) comes westerly winds, and the GFS has a WWB in its forecast. This will likely mean the subsurface will remain warm if not become warmer.
The pattern from prior years seems to be continuing but as 2017 and 2019 showed, we could still get La Nina or Neutral. I like where the CPC has its odds.